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Message Subject 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL OK...

...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK...SERN KS AND WRN MO...

MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z IN CORRIDOR
FROM NWRN TX THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
EVOLVING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER
WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND WIND
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. IN OK LAPSE RATES /THOUGH
NOT LARGE/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.

..DIAL.. 01/28/2013
 
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