MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290329Z - 290530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BE INITIATING WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL OK. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SHORT NNE TO SSW BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS FORMED
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM LOGAN TO NRN GRADY COUNTIES...E OF THE
SURFACE DRYLINE IN WRN OK. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WAS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY TILL AFTER 09Z PER MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY BECOME
SUSTAINED AS WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
06Z. EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MODIFIED 00Z OUN/LMN
RAOBS SUGGEST MODEST MLCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PERSIST
AMIDST A HIGHLY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME SUSTAINED...RISKS FOR
SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD DEVELOP.

..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013