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Message Subject 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOLID AGREEMENT ON
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EVENT (OUTBREAK) AND CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
ON TIMING AS KEY FEATURES EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA. OPTED TO USE THE
OUTBREAK WORDING AS THIS EVENT WILL COVER A GOOD PART OF THE NEARBY
REGION (MULTIPLE CWA`S) WITH OUR CWA BEING A PART OF THE MAIN EVENT.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH/MOISTURE HAVE PRIMED A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH. LOOK FOR ADDED
WARMTH ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REALLY RESPONDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND ALLOW FOR
GOOD MIXING. THIS COMBO WILL LEAD TO WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE GOING WIND ADV AS IS.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AND EFFECTS OF MIXING...THE
ADV MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE NE CWA (N OF I-20 & E OF
I-55). NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TODAY AS A STRENGTHEN CAPPING INVERSION
WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE LATER THIS EVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL HELP REMOVE THE CAP. ALL GUID SHOWS SUCH DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (PSEUDO-DRY LINE). THIS FEATURE
HAS AND CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED WELL BY ALL GUID AND IS A CLASSIC
FEATURE THAT BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SVR WX TO OUR REGION. CAN`T SAY I`VE
SEEN IT IN JANUARY THOUGH. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE
INTENSE WIND SHEAR WITH PROGGED 0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND
EFFECTIVE SRH OF 400-650 M2/S2. WE USUALLY STRUGGLE TO GET ANY
INSTABILITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...MUCH LESS HAVING SOME COMBINED WITH
HIGH SHEAR. WELL...MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 600-900 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AS LONG AS TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN 71-73 AND DEWPTS ARE 66-67.
SUCH CAPE/SHEAR COMBO SUPPORTS 0-1KM EHI VALUES OF 2 TO 3 WHICH ARE
QUITE HIGH. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END EVENT WITH
SIG SVR WX POSSIBLE.

WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING ESTABLISH OVERNIGHT TO
SUPPORT SVR STORMS...THE KEY ON WHAT THE AREA WILL SEE HAS TO DO
WITH STORM MODE (LINEAR OR DISCRETE CELLS). MODEL DATA IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SHOWING A MIXED MODE...FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE
TIME BEFORE A LINEAR MODE BECOMES DOMINATE. SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY
LOOKS POSSIBLE BY 9 PM OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
EVOLVING LINE. THESE STORMS WILL STORMS WILL QUICKLY LIFT NNE AND
POSE A TORNADO AND DMG WIND RISK. HERE SEEMS TO BE MAIN AREA TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TORNADO. AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT...THE LINE WILL
BECOME MORE DOMINATE AS IT EVOLVES EASTWARD. HI-RES DATA SHOWS A
LINE SEGMENT STRUCTURE OR QLCS TYPE STRUCTURES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. DUE TO THIS...TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AND WE
CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HOWEVER...DMG
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A FOCUS. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS IN
THE LOWER 5KFT...60-80 MPH TYPE WINDS MAY EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC WITH ANY STORM. DUE TO THIS...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DMG
WIND EVENT ALONG WITH THE TORNADO RISK MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH ALL OF
THIS...WILL UTILIZE THE GRAPHICS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO TO MACON. AS
FOR AS HEAVY RAIN...NOT TOO CONCERNED AS QUICK MOVEMENT AND
EVOLUTION LOOKS TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TOTALS AROUND .5 TO 1.0 INCH.
STILL...RAINS WILL BE EFFICIENT AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE A VERY
QUICK 1 INCH.

AS FOR TIMING...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A BROAD WINDOW ACROSS THE W/NW TO
CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF PRE-LINE ACTIVITY AND THEN THE ACTUAL LINE
ITSELF. LOOK FOR AREAS WEST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO NATCHEZ LINE TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 9PM AND 3AM. FROM 2-7AM...AREAS EAST OF A NATCHEZ TO WINONA
LINE WILL SEE THE SQUALL LINE QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH.
 
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