AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291546Z - 291745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN
TX...SERN OK...AND WRN AR...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OKC TO
SPS...CONFLUENCE FLOW WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS AND BENEATH A 65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.

WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATING
0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. FURTHER....THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WHILE INITIAL ATTEMPTS
AT NEW STORMS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO MARGINAL CAPPING...SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION IS REALIZED AND
TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWS ARE LIKELY.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013