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Message Subject 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Poster Handle Luisport
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No change at 20:00z update by SPC.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX...NRN
LA...EXTREME SERN OK...MOST OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN
TN AND NWRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE OH VALLEY...

...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY WRN TN AND SWRN OH VALLEY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.

SFC LOW OVER NERN OK WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE 60-70 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK ALREADY INDICATE LOW 60S NEAR SFC
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE
EVIDENCE OF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

SQUALL LINE FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. OTHER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WITHIN THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 01/29/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

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