MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 292015Z - 292215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL
OK...IN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVER ERN OK AND
WRN AR BUT FEW HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
REMAINS INTENSE...AND SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA AS POCKETS OF HEATING ARE
OCCURRING UPSTREAM ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED ACROSS ERN OK AND AR...AND RADAR DOES SHOW A
FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER ERN OK WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A DAMAGING
WIND OR TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
STORMS...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST ALONG THE LINE.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32439403 32459684 34439659 35379572 35359361 32439403