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Message Subject 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL OK...N-CNTRL/NWRN
AR...S-CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 9...

VALID 292131Z - 292300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 9 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 6 AND 9.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN
OK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS. VWP DATA AHEAD OF THE LINE INDICATE
0-1-KM SRH VALUES OF 325-400 M2/S2...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MESOVORTICES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE -- AS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH STORMS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LSX RDA. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES. ALSO...AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING FROM
E-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR AND S-CNTRL MO WITHIN A REGION OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBITING PERSISTENT DISCRETE AND SFC-BASED
CHARACTERISTICS WILL HAVE A GREATER PROPENSITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SRH. SUCH EVOLUTION WAS EARLIER
DETECTED BY SRX WSR-88D DATA WITH A SUPERCELL THAT MOVED FROM
SEQUOYAH COUNTY OK INTO CRAWFORD/WASHINGTON COUNTIES AR. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM MAY CONTINUE TO CYCLE WITH A THREAT FOR
MESOCYCLONES/TORNADOES AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS NWRN AR. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE TO ITS EAST.

TORNADO WATCH 6 WAS LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE BY WFO TULSA TO ADDRESS THE NEAR-TERM SVR THREAT. THE
SVR THREAT WILL BE REDUCED TO ZERO FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013
 
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