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96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2013 02:41 PM
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96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France -- moves east. (ECMWF 12z) [link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/28/2013 02:54 PM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2013 06:27 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2013 06:39 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Well, this is the time for severe winter storms that occur every few years. Just like 'Lothar' in late 1999 and 'Kyrill' in early 2007.
Definitely a thing to keep an eye on.

bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2013 06:40 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Well, this is the time for severe winter storms that occur every few years. Just like 'Lothar' in late 1999 and 'Kyrill' in early 2007.
Definitely a thing to keep an eye on.

bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33259420


Thank's!!! hf
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2013 06:53 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
[link to www.meteox.de] Good morning from Germany. Very stormy weather today and the next two days. Quite warm (around 53°F), but a colder frontal system (maybe with a sort of squall line) is moving in
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2013 09:10 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
It provides for a very interesting event for the evening of Saturday 6th Fair-zone (South of England or Britain or French Channel) should take strong and ugly in terms of wind gusts.

Tomorrow is Wednesday but I think the models now are beginning to see an explosive cyclogenesis to work up there, it will probably be the first storm of the winter coastal classic that area.

The cables from the more exposed south of Britain are well able to take with gusts of around 150-170 km / h

To closely monitor the situation in the next 48 hours. ... From what I saw of the most knowledgeable people in the field, this storm can be virulent arrive on Friday morning at French coasts because of phasing in a powerful jet stream well to take over the northern French, arriving in the afternoon / early evening of Friday will be a storm less hardcore. [link to www.meteopt.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2013 09:24 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2013 09:31 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Hmm, hope it won't be like in 1999.
Anonymous Coward
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Switzerland
01/30/2013 09:33 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Wrong!

Winds to top max 100 km

Failbsflag
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2013 09:38 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Wrong!

Winds to top max 100 km

Failbsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6104694


how you know?
Anonymous Coward
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Switzerland
01/30/2013 09:56 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Wrong!

Winds to top max 100 km

Failbsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6104694


how you know?
 Quoting: Luisport


My mother died in the great French storm of 1999

So I am afraid

Nothing against you

Just wishing that nothing happens
Anonymous Coward
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01/30/2013 10:47 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Wrong!

Winds to top max 100 km

Failbsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6104694


how you know?
 Quoting: Luisport


My mother died in the great French storm of 1999

So I am afraid

Nothing against you

Just wishing that nothing happens
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6104694


ok then... peace
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2013 07:10 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 31 Jan 2013 06:00 to Fri 01 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 30 Jan 2013 23:25
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 was issued for the Netherlands, Belgium and parts of Germany for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

To the South of an almost endless chain of deep cyclones from the Northern Atlantic via the British Isles into Scandinavia, a pronounced zonal flow continues over much of Europe. An occlusion which rapidly moves eastward across North-Central Europe provides a possible focus for a strongly forced convection event.
Meanwhile, a subtropical ridge extends into most of the Mediterranean region and presents it with calm and dry weather.

DISCUSSION

...North-Central Europe...

The occluded frontal system of a mature low over Scotland gets reinforced in the left exit region of a jet streak (60 m/s at 500 hPa) as it moves from the English East coast via Germany into Poland in the 06 to 18 UTC time frame. The accompanying signal in the surface fields seems subtle, as it is dwarfed by the overall strong pressure gradient. However, the combination of a strong background wind field and slightly backed surface winds is sufficient to drive the 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200-300 m^2/s^2 range, overlapped by synoptic lift support and neutral to marginally unstable profiles in the lower troposphere.
The lack of a pronounced frontal structure and the slantwise orientation of the vorticity lobe to the mid-level flow suggest that a convective line (if any) will soon give way to a small flock of shallow multicells as the dominant convective mode. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to make landfall in Belgium and the Netherlands around 10 UTC and to move into Northwestern Germany in the following hours, and they might attain briefly rotating updrafts in this helical environment. Sub-severe soft hail is locally possible and even an isolated tornado is not ruled out. However, all in all this threat is limited by a lack of low-level buoyancy and by a displacement of the deepest instability (further North) from the strongest vertical wind shear (further South). The only uniformity in this highly dynamic setup is the strong low-level wind field (30-35 m/s at 850 hPa), which makes the severe wind threat solid enough to issue a level 1 area, even though the majority of convection will be too shallow for electrification.
The favorable overlap of strong vertical wind shear, lift support and marginal instability is quite limited in space and time, hence the wind risk will taper off in Central Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic in the late afternoon and evening hours. A further involvement of convection becomes doubtful, too.
[link to www.estofex.org]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2013 07:17 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Friday's low and precip for the S is 'waiting in the wings' to the SW of the UK.... [link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2013 07:19 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Friday's heavy rain for central and southern areas is showing up well on the latest NAE model - [link to expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk] …
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2013 09:24 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
[link to icons-ak.wxug.com] [link to icons-ak.wxug.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2013 10:32 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
The storm surge hit Hamburg's harbor and low riverside areas yesterday night. High gusts also caused minor damage to trucks, containers, trains, and trees.

Photos: [link to www.ndr.de]
(to skip through the photos, click the small arrows on the right above the photo)
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2013 11:29 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
The storm surge hit Hamburg's harbor and low riverside areas yesterday night. High gusts also caused minor damage to trucks, containers, trains, and trees.

Photos: [link to www.ndr.de]
(to skip through the photos, click the small arrows on the right above the photo)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33450220


do you know if it hits france?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33450220
Germany
02/01/2013 11:57 AM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
The storm surge hit Hamburg's harbor and low riverside areas yesterday night. High gusts also caused minor damage to trucks, containers, trains, and trees.

Photos: [link to www.ndr.de]
(to skip through the photos, click the small arrows on the right above the photo)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33450220


do you know if it hits france?
 Quoting: Luisport


I think the storm that hit us last night and the night before was coming from a different low from the UK.
I believe the system from the Atlantic should reach the northern french coast tonight.
So, the storm surge wasn't from the system in your first post.
Anonymous Coward
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France
02/01/2013 09:10 PM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
My mother died in the great French storm of 1999

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6104694


that one was man made
i know, i was there
tried to communicate with the spirits, they were very clear
under pressure, couldnt relax, had to break through
Anonymous Coward
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02/03/2013 12:31 PM
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Re: 96-hr forecast has a major wind-storm / extratropical cyclone for France!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Stormy weather will continue to impact the UK. [link to www.accuweather.com] …





GLP