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Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 10:17 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
This is going to be a very dangerous weather system. The clouds were black and gray in Texas. It has been raining most of the day. The temp has also quickly dropped into the 60s and 50s.

The storm is moving across the south and then up the east coast. You can see it gathering strength. The North-east better prepare. There is a monster winter storm headed your way.

hiding
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 10:19 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
I live in a suburb west of boston were exspecting 24"-30"
 Quoting: Seorsa6 28675495


Correction expecting
 Quoting: Seorsa6 28675495


Yup, same here for the north shore. cool2
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 10:20 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
This is going to be a very dangerous weather system. The clouds were black and gray in Texas. It has been raining most of the day. The temp has also quickly dropped into the 60s and 50s.

The storm is moving across the south and then up the east coast. You can see it gathering strength. The North-east better prepare. There is a monster winter storm headed your way.

hiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33841267


Exactly. Just like hurricane Sandy, this has HAARP written all over it.
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 10:21 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
30” in such a short period.. going to be fun
Eggcellent

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02/06/2013 10:22 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
bump bump bump and 5 *'s, Luis, for keeping on top of this!
"I have come to the conclusion that all news should be treated like 9/11, assume it is a psyop with actors participating in a staged event complete with props, until proven otherwise, in which case assume whatever is being recorded, reported, televised, is distortions/lying by omission/outright lies, until proven otherwise." - Anonymous, 4-13-12
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 10:43 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
This is going to be a very dangerous weather system. The clouds were black and gray in Texas. It has been raining most of the day. The temp has also quickly dropped into the 60s and 50s.

The storm is moving across the south and then up the east coast. You can see it gathering strength. The North-east better prepare. There is a monster winter storm headed your way.

hiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33841267


Exactly. Just like hurricane Sandy, this has HAARP written all over it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9700822


I wouldn't doubt it. Just came back in from outside. Most of the system has moved through the area. It is still windy outside, and the wind is howling above the pine trees.

So, the storm is pulling in lots of wind, energy, and moisture. It reminds me of a tropical storm, or right before a hurricane makes landfall. The air is only colder.

Everyone that is going to be in the path of this storm needs to prepare and keep checking for updates.
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 11:06 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Getting scary I hope it will not be as bad as they are forecasting ! It's just too much snow and wind !!!!
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 11:55 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
What's Long Island looking at?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30248208


[link to www.wunderground.com]

4-10 inches according to this. Winds 25-35 with gusts up to 60.

POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES, as usual... the new normal.
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 01:42 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Just the start,from some info on another forum(weather)looks like an icy cold back door will unleash for the rest of febuary starting next week.
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 04:50 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1238 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

***POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO SAT***

***1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXCEPT AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
MIXING***

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A POTENTIALLY
HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE CONFIDENT IN MUCH OF THE REGION
RECEIVING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW. STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE...BUT CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE ALSO EXPECT A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND THAT
WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE BULK
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH MID LEVEL WARM AIR WORKS INTO THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND SREFS ARE
MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA FOR A TIME. IF THIS OCCURS OUR
CURRENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE TOO HIGH IN THIS REGION...BUT WE
DID TRY TO SHOW LOWER TOTALS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. ALSO...THE ECMWF
WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IS COLDER SO WE DID LEAN MORE IN
THAT DIRECTION. AS WE MENTIONED THOUGH...THIS IS WHERE OUR FORECAST
IS MOST UNCERTAIN.

SPECIFIC DETAILS...

SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING AS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAIN SHOW BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE AREA LOOKS TO GET
POUNDED.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPAWN SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE BENCHMARK LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A STRONG HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR WHICH HAS BEEN A MISSING FEATURE IN
MANY STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BECOME STEADY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TEMPORARILY
ADVANCES NORTHWARD. WE ARE PRETTY SURE THE CAPE/ISLANDS WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN AND PERHAPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKES IT INTO RHODE
ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA IF THE LATEST NAM/SREFS ARE CORRECT.

THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW BOMBS OUT AND TRACKS NEAR THE BENCHMARK. MID LEVEL CENTERS
RAPIDLY CLOSE OFF WHICH WILL LEAD TO TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL RATES AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE STORM. WOULD EXPECT
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A
TREMENDOUS COLD CONVEYER BELT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE BATTERING THE
COASTAL PLAIN LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WE
MENTIONED THAT CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS A
BIT NORTHWEST OF THAT REGION TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ON THE BACK BENT MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. WHERE EXACTLY THAT
SETS UP WILL COME DOWN TO THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT SO ITS
IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. THAT IS WHY WE ARE LOOKING AT
1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

TRAVEL MAY BECOME ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
MA INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS BLIZZARD WATCH
INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ONTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS
LOW PRESSURE EXPLODES OFF THE COAST AND HEIGHTS CRASH. ITS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS LOCATION MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE INCLUDED IN
THE BLIZZARD WATCH...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT THERMAL
PROFILES WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
SO WILL BE HOISTING A HIGH WIND WATCH. AGAIN...STILL COULD SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF
SNOW IN THIS REGION SO LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.

ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
CHANGE TO RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE LOW BOMBS OUT AND THAT REGION FLIPS TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6+
INCHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG CONCERN IN THAT REGION WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS THAT COULD RESULT IN
SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 04:53 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
00Z NAM has 36" snow NW of Boston

[link to www.twisterdata.com]
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 04:57 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Very cool new product from SPC - Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity.

Keep an eye on this one. Blizzard is just coming into its forecast period. Should know more this afternoon.

The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) is produced by postprocessing seven (7) deterministic convection-allowing model runs. Special emphasis is placed on hourly maximum storm-attribute fields.


[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 05:01 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
SREF showing New England getting snow-fall rates of greater than 12" in a 3hr period!

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 05:03 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
From TWC:

Just in: The updated snow forecast for what could be a historic blizzard for parts of the Northeast

[link to pbs.twimg.com]
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 05:26 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
00Z EURO continues with about 24" for Boston area to RI and eastern Conn.

[link to pbs.twimg.com]
Watching the world
Crypt Watcher

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02/07/2013 06:00 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
bump
Ignorance is bliss until reality bites you in the ass.

I bury the dead.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:25 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAM_WRF 4km snowfall totals: swathe of 2-3 feet shift bit east thru 7 AM Saturday morning. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:25 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Parent model (NAM-12km) had 3'+ over Rhode Island thru 72-hrs. Models are just estimates but all seem to be extreme [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:27 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Minimum GFS surface pressure is 969 mb at +66 hrs. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:32 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Good morning, Boston. It'll be increasingly cloudy today before a snow storm approaches Friday: [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:33 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
low as a nor'easter, and the cold low meet in northeast..boom.. [link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:36 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

2 ft bullseye over Boston. In fact except for having to drop south acc s 50 miles,this looks darn good from earlier [link to twitter.com]


5 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Thats right its further WEST and colder. Remember storms draw cold air toward them too, not just warmer air.More intense, more focus nr ctr


5 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Very nervous about Lindsay storm scenario nyc.. also was supposed to have rain cut acc. -8C5k isotherm last 6 hrs of snow means high ration


5 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

ECMWF colder and further west than old run with 12-18 inches now nyc. [link to Weatherbell.com] still positioned in middle of NYC options (4-8)

6 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Alot of warm water off east coast for explosive development [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:38 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ010>012-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN SOME TREE
LIMBS... AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:39 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-071730-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T2100Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
425 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WATCH...IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS UPGRADED A WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

&&

$$
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:41 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Will we crack the top 5 biggest snowstorms in Boston? Very possible [link to pbs.twimg.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:42 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Winter storm warning
Snowfall warning for
City of Toronto

Significant snowfall of 15 to 25 cm tonight and Friday.

A low will track northeast from Texas to Illinois today then track just south of Lake Erie on Friday.

Snow associated with a trough ahead of this system will start spreading into Southern Ontario from Michigan and Lake Huron today with a couple cm of snow possible by this evening in a swath of regions extending from Lake Huron to Western Lake Ontario.

This low will intensify into a winter storm as it approaches Southern Ontario, with an expanding area of heavy snow expected to move into most of Southern Ontario this evening and parts of Eastern Ontario overnight. The heaviest snow will occur during the Friday morning rush hour along the highway 401 corridor from London to the Greater Toronto area and through the Golden Horseshoe. The snow, heavy at times is expected to continue well into Friday as the strong system passes just south of the Great Lakes. Brisk northeasterly winds will also result in local blowing snow in many areas tonight and Friday.

Many parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario may receive 15 cm to 25 cm of snow from this storm before it ends Friday night. Total snowfall amounts will be lower over areas to the north of Lake Erie due to warmer temperatures giving rain or wet snow at times. The winter storm watch has thus been ended for these regions.

Areas along the western shore of Lake Ontario may receive near 25 cm of snow due to enhancement in the cold easterly flow off of Lake Ontario. Additionally these winds will result in blowing snow which may produce prolonged periods of reduced visibilities. A winter storm warning is thus in effect for these regions.

Travelling conditions will deteriorate and become hazardous in the snow and blowing snow tonight and Friday. There may be a significant impact on the commute to work on Friday morning and possibly Friday afternoon in heavy snow and blowing snow.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:43 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
February 8-10 Historic Coastal Storm
By Andrew at 5:13 PM
A Nor'easter of historic proportions will be setting up for the end of this workweek.

Pictured above are three forecast models- the American (GFS) model, the European (ECMWF) model, and the short range NAM model. All three models have their triumphs and their flaws. Generally, the NAM model is known to exaggerate snowfall totals. The European model is generally regarded as the best forecast model for winter storms, but has recently been faltering.

Regardless, a major Nor'easter coastal storm will be setting up just off the coast of New England to give the region a serious wake up call in the form of extreme snow totals. It appears that two bodies of precipitation will merge in the waters immediately offshore. The basis for this event will come from a storm system that is predicted to plow across the Southeast after originating in the Gulf of Mexico. The fact that it is coming from that region means it will be absolutely soaked with moisture. The second piece of energy will be sliding east from the Great Lakes, where it may drop anywhere from 6-12 inches in some parts of Michigan and even create a freezing rain event in portions of the Lower Great Lakes. This first storm system that comes from the Gulf enhances the potential for heavy snow, and the forecast models realize this. The current forecast is for the combined storm system to reach pressure levels as low as 983 millibars just offshore of Massachusetts. The presence of the Atlantic Ocean does contribute to this, and its formation in the Gulf of Mexico means all the more snow potential for the Northeast.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:44 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Valentine's Day Potential Significant Nor'easter
By Andrew at 5:50 PM

There is potential for a significant Nor'easter that would hit the Northeast on Valentine's Day.

The GFS model is predicting a storm system to ride the Southern US and shoot north along the East Coast, gaining strength as it does so from the Atlantic Ocean. This system would most likely be riding on an increasingly-strengthening subtropical jet stream, which does hold its domain in the Southern US and is commonly the preferred jet stream that produces Nor'easters. Global wind observations and torque anomalies tell me that this is indeed a potential significant storm system, if the energy can flow into the subtropical jet stream (STJ) and the stream can cooperate to send the system into the Northeast.

48 hour snowfall forecasts from the same GFS model run show as much as 18 inches of snow hitting central New York as a result of this event. If you do the math, that's just under a fourth of an inch per hour if the snow fell continuously. The more likely scenario would be very heavy snow falling in a relatively short period of time; snow does not tend to keep to a constant track of 'x' inches per hour.

This system has been showing up for a while now, and must be watched very carefully. The presence of an enhanced subtropical jet stream and a more active period incoming as the Rex Block places low pressure in the Southwest does provide chances for possibly significant snow in the US.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:44 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
in the 1978 blizzard..the two lows joined and boom the blizzard happened...it sure looks like much the same set-up now huh..the two lows meeting and boom..2 feet of snow with high winds..
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 06:46 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TONIGHT. A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON FRIDAY FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT...INCLUDING THE INLETS...THE
TIDAL PATUXENT RIVER...AND THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER. GALE
WARNINGS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MINOR INUNDATION OF SENSITIVE LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH... WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

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