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Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

 
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 10:01 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Tropical wave just south of Puerto Rico.

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Keep an eye on this.

Once the surface low crosses FL and gets in the Gulf Stream, all hell could break loose if it taps into the tropical wave.
 Quoting: DoorBert


scaredalonescared
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you please elaborate ? I didn't quite understand Thanks !
 Quoting: Wazaap


The dark orange on the loop represents very moist warm air near the surface.

The last frame shows a wave of it just south of PR.

Surface lows rotate CCW and can suck up this moisture if they are positioned correctly.

Looks like the timing of it could happen.

That would relate to higher precipitation and lower surface pressure due to the lift of the air.

Last Edited by DoorBert on 02/07/2013 10:02 AM
JanJan

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02/07/2013 10:02 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Tropical wave just south of Puerto Rico.

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Keep an eye on this.

Once the surface low crosses FL and gets in the Gulf Stream, all hell could break loose if it taps into the tropical wave.
 Quoting: DoorBert


scaredalonescared
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you please elaborate ? I didn't quite understand Thanks !
 Quoting: Wazaap


possible hurricane comming if it reaches some conditions
 Quoting: Luisport


For the GOM area? Or, for the northeast?!
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:03 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
calm down... not for now!
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 10:05 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
...


scaredalonescared
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you please elaborate ? I didn't quite understand Thanks !
 Quoting: Wazaap


possible hurricane comming if it reaches some conditions
 Quoting: Luisport


For the GOM area? Or, for the northeast?!
 Quoting: JanJan



For the NE.

Latest GFS does have it as a deep asymmetric warm core - in other words a hybrid tropical cyclone - something like Sandy was when it got near NJ.

Last Edited by DoorBert on 02/07/2013 10:05 AM
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:06 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Escambia County in northwest Florida...
southeastern Baldwin County in southwest Alabama...

* until 1000 am CST

* at 800 am CST... showers and thunderstorms moving over the
advisory area have produced 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the past
hour... and an additional 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible through
1000 am CST. This will result in minor flooding of poor drainage and
low lying areas and ponding of water on roadways.

* Locations impacted include...
Pensacola international Airport... Perdido Beach...
Orange Beach... West Pensacola... Warrington...
Pensacola... Myrtle Grove... Goulding...
Brent...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive rainfall runoff will cause ponding of water in urban
areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage areas and low lying spots.


Lat... Lon 3027 8764 3043 8755 3049 8724 3047 8715
3043 8717 3039 8721 3038 8726 3033 8727
3033 8720 3035 8715 3033 8713 3032 8715
3031 8725 3032 8731 3029 8742

Special Statement..
.. A line of strong thunderstorms will affect southeastern Baldwin
County in southwest Alabama... western Santa Rosa and southern
Escambia counties in northwest Florida... through 945 am CST...

At 825 am CST... a line of strong thunderstorms was located along a
line extending from 8 miles southeast of Robertsdale to 4 miles east
of Foley to 4 miles north of Gulf Shores... and moving east at 40 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Perdido Beach... Orange Beach... Gulf Shores...
Gonzalez... Ensley... Bellview...
Lillian... Foley... Elberta...

This includes Interstate 10 in Florida between mile markers 1 and 10.
This includes Interstate 10 in Alabama between mile markers 49 and
66.

The primary threats from these storms are wind gusts up to 55 mph.
Winds this strong could blow off tree limbs and also blow around
small unsecured objects. Seek shelter until these storms have passed.

These storms may continue to intensify and a warning may soon be
needed. Please continue to monitor local radio or TV for further
National Weather Service updates or possible warnings
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:06 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
ummm its just snow people. if it was another sandy then ok.
 Quoting: TheTruthNeverLies


This will be worst than sandy same flooding only this time will be snow instead of rain.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:09 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
ummm its just snow people. if it was another sandy then ok.
 Quoting: TheTruthNeverLies


This will be worst than sandy same flooding only this time will be snow instead of rain.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33726573


why you say it will be worse than Sandy?
JanJan

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02/07/2013 10:09 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
...


Can you please elaborate ? I didn't quite understand Thanks !
 Quoting: Wazaap


possible hurricane comming if it reaches some conditions
 Quoting: Luisport


For the GOM area? Or, for the northeast?!
 Quoting: JanJan



For the NE.

Latest GFS does have it as a deep asymmetric warm core - in other words a hybrid tropical cyclone - something like Sandy was when it got near NJ.
 Quoting: DoorBert


Say it ain't so DoorBert!! Don't think I can deal with that.

We're being told to stock up on batteries - same stuff just before Sandy.
Not the normal prep for a snowstorm... .
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:14 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
...


big big blizard storm comming this night and friday...
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm in Boston. Beautiful sunny morning :-)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27219251


wait for tonight
 Quoting: Luisport


Looking forward to it! All preps are in place, ready to go. Although tonight is not the start of it. Metro Boston will just be seeing flurries until about 2:00pm tomorrow, then it gets steadier and heavier. Heaviest later Friday night. 2-3 inches per hour. Be off the roads by about 4:00pm tomorrow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27219251


Thanku for replying!!hf Im just a little worried for my daughter! peepants
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:17 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:22 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Boston: bullseye for two feet of snow [link to ow.ly]


1 h AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

"This is not your run of the mill Nor'easter," @AccuWeather forecaster. #boston #blizzard
karinza

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02/07/2013 10:23 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
in the 1978 blizzard..the two lows joined and boom the blizzard happened...it sure looks like much the same set-up now huh..the two lows meeting and boom..2 feet of snow with high winds..
 Quoting: Luisport


Oh, Luis......don't say it! Now I'll be making more igloos like back then! Well, in SW Connecticut, so we'll see how much! Thanks again. cheer
"I may be paranoid, but not an android."
Liquid_Pestilence

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02/07/2013 10:24 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

 Quoting: Luisport


thanks for the thread Luisport, your as awesome as this storm is going to be..

little world
"Fear paints pictures of ghosts and hangs them in the gallery of ignorance." Robert Green Ingersoll
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:26 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
hf LOL
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 10:26 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
...


possible hurricane comming if it reaches some conditions
 Quoting: Luisport


For the GOM area? Or, for the northeast?!
 Quoting: JanJan



For the NE.

Latest GFS does have it as a deep asymmetric warm core - in other words a hybrid tropical cyclone - something like Sandy was when it got near NJ.
 Quoting: DoorBert


Say it ain't so DoorBert!! Don't think I can deal with that.

We're being told to stock up on batteries - same stuff just before Sandy.
Not the normal prep for a snowstorm... .
 Quoting: JanJan


Its not going to make landfall like Sandy, but pressure will be close

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:29 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
NAM out 48hrs.. [link to wxcaster4.com] [link to wxcaster4.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:30 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
ummm its just snow people. if it was another sandy then ok.
 Quoting: TheTruthNeverLies


This will be worst than sandy same flooding only this time will be snow instead of rain.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33726573


why you say it will be worse than Sandy?
 Quoting: Luisport


Supper low pressure will cause coastal flooding just like sandy. The lower the pressure the bigger the storm surge. Only thing in our favor is the moon is not full . Flooding will depend on the tide when this monster hits. When Sandy hit it wasn't freezing out . Good luck dealing with this one. Sea's 25 to 30 feet.
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:31 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Boston: bullseye for two feet of snow [link to ow.ly]


1 h AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

"This is not your run of the mill Nor'easter," @AccuWeather forecaster. #boston #blizzard
 Quoting: Luisport


gasp
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:31 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
I don't think I have ever seen "black" before... [link to i49.tinypic.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:34 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
...


I saw that, and upped our total to 12" now too!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27449541


There are still people by me without power and who still can't move back into their homes, this is the worst case scenario for a lot of peoplehiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30248208


I'm on the North Shore and we have homes condemned from Sandy that the home owners never received ANY female help. I work in Rockville Centre and had to run to Long Beach yesterday and was completely blown away and what the boardwalk area looks like. First time I had made it down there since the hurricane. :(
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27449541


Well whatever happens be safe hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30248208

Thanks, you too!
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:35 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

 Quoting: Luisport


That model is also using a 10:1 ratio for an average too. As the back half the storm pulls away the snow will only translate to a higher ratio. Big Difference on whether you get a 10:1 versus a 12:1. ~ 17% higher could mean 17% more snow too. Then there is the high water anomalies in the Gulf Stream which help add moisture to the system. [link to www.ospo.noaa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:37 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 800 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1000 AM CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... PERDIDO BEACH...
ORANGE BEACH... WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON...
PENSACOLA... MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING...
BRENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&
Robert49
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02/07/2013 10:38 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z apparently uses the groundhog as part of its data package: 10-15 day forecast froze-solid USA. [link to twitter.com]

 Quoting: Luisport


I think the term for the weather last I read the history of is called>>>>>>>>WINTER!
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:38 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Holy Mother of God.

Should I just kill myself now to spare the agonizing death that will surely be my fate once this unworldly weather hits?

suicide
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:39 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
This system is already well ahead of the game in terms of organization as you can see on radar. Add to that a phasing of yet another solid system over Wisconsin and you have system that has yet even to tap into Gulf Stream waters let alone phase. It's not surprising at all to see the models spitting out +2 feet of snow over such a large area. Probably going to see a lot of thundersnow. [link to radar.weather.gov]
Sutton
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02/07/2013 10:40 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Just released a blizzard watch for us on Long Island
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30248208


I saw that, and upped our total to 12" now too!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27449541


There are still people by me without power and who still can't move back into their homes, this is the worst case scenario for a lot of peoplehiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30248208


I'm on the North Shore and we have homes condemned from Sandy that the home owners never received ANY female help. I work in Rockville Centre and had to run to Long Beach yesterday and was completely blown away and what the boardwalk area looks like. First time I had made it down there since the hurricane. :(
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27449541


I live in RVC. do you know what the forecast is for us in SW Nassau?
Robert48
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02/07/2013 10:41 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 800 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1000 AM CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... PERDIDO BEACH...
ORANGE BEACH... WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON...
PENSACOLA... MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING...
BRENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&
 Quoting: Luisport


Yea of course! If you live in a urban area or city that is flat or live in a city surrounded by mountains which is called a valley you sure as hell will have lots of water accumilation.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:43 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
the GFS has been showing the low in each run developing faster than predicted.. [link to mag.ncep.noaa.gov] [link to mag.ncep.noaa.gov]
Eagle # 1
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02/07/2013 10:44 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
WELL, we are just short of the 80th 'birthday' of the blizzard of 1934, where the wind made 7 foot drifts; I know because, at 6 years old, I stupidly climbed on top of one and fell into it. My 8 year old brother dug me out from the side.

Hope you have your generators in place, and LOTS of fuel, as with high winds, we WILL have power outages, BLOCKED ROADS and GREAT difficulty for ANY hookup from power crews for over a week, IMHO ! I'm in eastern CT, and my John Deere is ready to go with pay loader able to pile 6 feet high. I'm 85 !

Eagle
Robert48
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02/07/2013 10:45 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Tropical wave just south of Puerto Rico.

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Keep an eye on this.

Once the surface low crosses FL and gets in the Gulf Stream, all hell could break loose if it taps into the tropical wave.
 Quoting: DoorBert


scaredalonescared
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you please elaborate ? I didn't quite understand Thanks !
 Quoting: Wazaap


The dark orange on the loop represents very moist warm air near the surface.

The last frame shows a wave of it just south of PR.

Surface lows rotate CCW and can suck up this moisture if they are positioned correctly.

Looks like the timing of it could happen.

That would relate to higher precipitation and lower surface pressure due to the lift of the air.
 Quoting: DoorBert


I just hope to GOD that people frequent this forum don't get their meaning of rough weather here. I don't look for weather reports here because I am not so stupid that I don't know how to go to any weather forecast website on the net and look at the present or future weather.

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