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Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:45 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
...


I saw that, and upped our total to 12" now too!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27449541


There are still people by me without power and who still can't move back into their homes, this is the worst case scenario for a lot of peoplehiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30248208


I'm on the North Shore and we have homes condemned from Sandy that the home owners never received ANY female help. I work in Rockville Centre and had to run to Long Beach yesterday and was completely blown away and what the boardwalk area looks like. First time I had made it down there since the hurricane. :(
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27449541


FEMA, NOT female LOL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27449541


Freudian perhaps ??? LOL
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:48 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Historic Nor'easter poised to slam Boston and the Northeast U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:43 PM GMT em 07 de Fevereiro de 2013

A potentially historic Nor'easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed "Nemo" by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 - 3" per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor'easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 - 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.

Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 - 4.5' along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean's height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the "storm tide"--how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57' hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. For Nemo, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of 3.87' above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause moderate flooding in Boston. This would be the 3rd highest water level on record in Boston (tide gauge records began in 1921.) According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992

More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A peak surge of 4.3' is predicted for Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 16 - 18' feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected in Provincetown, on the tip of Cape Cod.


Figure 2. Predicted coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013. Image credit: NWS Boston.

I'll have an update on the storm Friday morning.

Jeff Masters
[link to www.wunderground.com]
JanJan

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02/07/2013 10:50 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
...


For the GOM area? Or, for the northeast?!
 Quoting: JanJan



For the NE.

Latest GFS does have it as a deep asymmetric warm core - in other words a hybrid tropical cyclone - something like Sandy was when it got near NJ.
 Quoting: DoorBert


Say it ain't so DoorBert!! Don't think I can deal with that.

We're being told to stock up on batteries - same stuff just before Sandy.
Not the normal prep for a snowstorm... .
 Quoting: JanJan


Its not going to make landfall like Sandy, but pressure will be close

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: DoorBert


That's a bit of relief, but I'm sure the peripheral effects are going to be felt.

The local meteorologists are really sounding the alarms here.
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:57 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
OK folks, this storm is supposed to hit Boston, where I live, full force late Friday night, overnight into Saturday morning. We could get up to 1 foot of snow, maybe more, maybe less, with very strong winds continuing all day Saturday, which means drifting snow. It will also be very cold, especially overnight Saturday and Sunday night. But next week will warm back up to the 40s-low 50s and be p. cloudy, so much of the snow will be gone by mid next week, except for patches here and there.

Some suburban areas and rural parts of MA, and especially Maine will get hit real hard. But they're use to this.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:58 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
[link to coolwx.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 10:59 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
[link to weather.unisys.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 10:59 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
I live in RVC. do you know what the forecast is for us in SW Nassau?
 Quoting: Sutton 27086380


Here you go. Hang in there, Long Islanders!

[link to www.wunderground.com]
DoorBert

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02/07/2013 10:59 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:01 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
I live in RVC. do you know what the forecast is for us in SW Nassau?
 Quoting: Sutton 27086380


Here you go. Hang in there, Long Islanders!

[link to www.wunderground.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27229787


Actually that was Suffolk county, sorry here's Nassau:

[link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:02 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA TO WATCH HILL RI OUT TO
25 NM

ANZ231-080330-
CAPE COD BAY-
1038 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:03 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ005-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND STRONG
WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 16 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN
SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:04 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
well the 12z GFS is showing a stronger and faster developing low than the 6z.. [link to mag.ncep.noaa.gov] [link to mag.ncep.noaa.gov] style="max-width: 501px [link to mag.ncep.noaa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:06 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
for NYC..this may change tomorrow.............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-176>179-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND DAMAGING WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:10 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
My county in NJ has officially moved to the brown area...hidinghidinghiding

[link to wxcaster4.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:12 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Posted this in another thread.

Having lived in New England my whole life I can safely say that 2-2 1/2 ft of snow is not that big a deal. It has been rare the last few years since we have been in a cycle of mild winters. You have to remember that storms need to be hyped up for ratings. If you have a house along the shore that hasn't been washed away in all the historic storms we have had over the years, an let me reiterate that every big storm seems to be called historic, you will probably get some flooding.

It will snow a lot Friday, people will dig out Saturday, and everything will be back to normal Sunday, and with the current forecast predicting temperatures in the 40s next week a lot of it will be melted by next weekend.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33818218


EXACTLY! Just what I was saying in my other post. It'll be big, and messy for a few hours, but sun is out on Sunday, and 40's on Monday and it will all be a memory. The blizzard in 2005 was MUCH worse than this. So to all of you freaking out, try to relax, it's really not that "historic". Enjoy it, have fun!!
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:13 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
How much is New York City expected to get?
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:19 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Model Diagnostic Discussion

Excerpt:


NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE NAM ARE EVIDENT AS THE 12Z RUN HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE TROF/SFC LOW ACRS THE OUTER BANKS ON 08/1200Z. THIS CONTINUES FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD AS THE 12Z NAM IS STRONGER AND MORE TO THE N/W RELATIVE TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. EVENTUALLY IT BEGINS LOOKING LIKE THE 06Z RUN ACRS RI BY SAT MORNING. RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER THE OUTER BANKS WITH THE 12Z NAM FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN. AGAIN...THE MOST OUTLYING SOLN APPEARS TO BE THE 00Z UKMET WHICH IS WEAKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. THE FOLLOWING 12 HRS ARE MOST CRUCIAL WHERE MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING ON A PARTICULAR SOLN. AT 09/0000Z...THE 12Z NAM ENDS UP BEING THE FARTHEST W MODEL WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN JUST OFF TO ITS E. FURTHER...THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN IS E OF THE ECMWF SUITE OF SOLNS WHICH HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST SEVERAL ENS RUNS. THE ENS SFC LOW PLOTS ACCURATELY DEPICT THIS DIVERGING OF OPINIONS ALBEIT WITH DIMINISHING SPREAD RELATIVE TO FEB 6 (00Z/12Z) GUIDANCE. ON A SIDE...THE 00Z UKMET IS THE MOST OFFSHORE SOLN WITH NO SUPPORT AT THIS TIME. [link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:19 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Winter storm NEMO


Nemo in Latin means NOBODY


ohyeah
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:20 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Posted this in another thread.

Having lived in New England my whole life I can safely say that 2-2 1/2 ft of snow is not that big a deal. It has been rare the last few years since we have been in a cycle of mild winters. You have to remember that storms need to be hyped up for ratings. If you have a house along the shore that hasn't been washed away in all the historic storms we have had over the years, an let me reiterate that every big storm seems to be called historic, you will probably get some flooding.

It will snow a lot Friday, people will dig out Saturday, and everything will be back to normal Sunday, and with the current forecast predicting temperatures in the 40s next week a lot of it will be melted by next weekend.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33818218


EXACTLY! Just what I was saying in my other post. It'll be big, and messy for a few hours, but sun is out on Sunday, and 40's on Monday and it will all be a memory. The blizzard in 2005 was MUCH worse than this. So to all of you freaking out, try to relax, it's really not that "historic". Enjoy it, have fun!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27219251


just see this please, and don't be obtuse: [link to www.wunderground.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:21 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Why the fuck is everyone worried about a little bit of snow?
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:22 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:23 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Why the fuck is everyone worried about a little bit of snow?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1618236


just read and you will know why...
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:23 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Winter storm NEMO


Nemo in Latin means NOBODY


ohyeah
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33875617


scareduhohahhhscreamsfan
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:26 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Southeast New England Water Level Forecast & Coastal Flood Threat [link to www.erh.noaa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:28 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

UPDATE: Have added potential for up to 3 FEET of total #snow from Winter Storm #Nemo: [link to wxch.nl]


Last Edited by Luisport on 02/07/2013 11:31 AM
Anonymous Coward
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02/07/2013 11:33 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
I live in an area that was hit hard by Sandy and it was no picnic being without power, even for 1 day .. and we were without power for 8 days.

Since this is a winter storm, I would just make sure you have the ability to dig/shovel/plow out in case you do lose power and want leave your home until power is restored.

With Sandy and the widespread power outages, there was really no place to retreat to ... plus, you didn't want to burn up your gas driving around .. and there were 7pm curfews ... no one was allowed on streets after 7pm, something else to keep in mind.
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:34 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
49. TropicalAnalystwx1304:32 PM GMT em 07 de Fevereiro de 2013

The Weather Channel has issued a STORM:CON of 10/10 for New England, the first time since the scale's debut.

Tom Nizol: "Boston's impacts will be historic." [link to www.wunderground.com]


Last Edited by Luisport on 02/07/2013 11:36 AM
Luisport (OP)

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02/07/2013 11:36 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Severe weather ramping up soon in the FL panhandle and northern FL. Radar: [link to ow.ly]
JanJan

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02/07/2013 12:04 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA TO WATCH HILL RI OUT TO
25 NM

ANZ231-080330-
CAPE COD BAY-
1038 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
 Quoting: Luisport


They are busy around here (SE Connecticut) cutting down overhanging branches near power lines.

I can't believe some people are wondering why anyone is getting worried?!

Brain dead or just being cantankerous - or both.

Please keep us posted throughout the day - you and DB are doing an amazing job.

I go here while at work - much more info and you guys post more in-depth content.


bumpbumpbump to keep this pinned throughout today and tomorrow!

hf
Bluebird

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02/07/2013 12:06 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Severe weather ramping up soon in the FL panhandle and northern FL. Radar: [link to ow.ly]
 Quoting: Luisport


I sure hope not! The citrus trees are in fine shape right now and a hard freeze could destroy years of work in that area.
One of the most important aspects of conspiracy theories is being able to discern when there isn't one.

Oh yeah, like you'd understand anyway.

Where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?. . .J. Handy

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