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Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

 
Luisport (OP)

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02/04/2013 03:11 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

...leads to major Nor'easter, heavy rain for NYC, huge snows for Upstate NY and Maine. Pattern favors very wet/snowy [link to twitter.com]


Last Edited by Luisport on 02/04/2013 03:13 PM
Nanook Of The Florida
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02/04/2013 03:11 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
North Pole, Florida here we come!
Luisport (OP)

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02/04/2013 03:13 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

...leads to major Nor'easter, heavy rain for NYC, huge snows for Upstate NY and Maine. Pattern favors very wet/snowy [link to twitter.com]

 Quoting: Luisport


hiding
Luisport (OP)

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02/04/2013 03:57 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
[link to 204.2.104.196]
Luisport (OP)

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02/04/2013 03:58 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
86. TropicalAnalystwx1308:56 PM GMT em 04 de Fevereiro de 2013

If the 6z GFS turned out to be true, there would be a major tornado outbreak across the South next week. But the great thing is, no previous model runs have shown this, and the 12z GFS did not show it either. In fact, there's literally nothing there at the same time on the 12z.
[link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 09:23 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z & GFS 18z quite different at only 120-hours for Nor'easter. GFS has blocking instead. Unusual uncertainty [link to twitter.com]

15 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Another historically strong extratropical cyclone #bomb for Newfoundland. 947 mb. Strongest since 1979 over E. Canada [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 09:26 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z says I need a boat here in ATL, 6'' of rain in deterministic run. [link to twitter.com]

15 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Still looking thru ensemble models for any hints of spring. EC 12z may have NYC in 50s or higher in 7-10 day range [link to twitter.com]

15 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Nobody home on 12z NCEP GEFS (ensembles) along E. coast. ECMWF is on it's own. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 09:27 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Not bad, 993 hPa ECMWF 00z Nor'easter, but perhaps trending offshore [link to twitter.com]

10 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 00z keeps 1032-1036 hPa high pressure over New England .. blockasaurus rex [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 09:33 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Stephenville, Newfoundland, got 8" of new snow overnight. High winds, including a gust to 64mph, contributed to blinding whiteouts.

1 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

I won't complain about the clippers anymore... Labrador blizzard snowfall: Goose 19", Nain 16", with a Cartwright wind gust to 63mph.
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 09:36 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

[link to Weatherbell.com] post on Lindsay storm type,Feb 8-9 1969 3 days ago not a bad way to look at this,though NYC will have not have as much

7 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

euro unloads 12-18 inches of snow on Boston and Providence on Friday. This storm is coming, question is how heavy
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 09:37 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS "finds" Friday Snowstorm in New England and also sees winter streaking out of the rockies with more snow [link to twitter.com]
DoorBert

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02/05/2013 11:20 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
GFS is gelling on EURO.

Looks like about 12" for Boston.

Stay tuned for updates.

[link to pbs.twimg.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/05/2013 11:35 AM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
wow Boston...maybe like the Blizzard of 78? I remember that one..gaspgasppennywise
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 11:51 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
GFS is gelling on EURO.

Looks like about 12" for Boston.

Stay tuned for updates.

[link to pbs.twimg.com]
 Quoting: DoorBert


Hi my friend! Thank's for info!!!hf
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 11:53 AM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

We're watching for a Friday New England snowstorm [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 12:06 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

4-day snowfall totals from GFS 12z: [link to twitter.com]

35 mRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

As Nor'easter matures, extreme wind & rain on backside bent-back warm front. Similar to Christmas 2011.

36 mRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Enough wind to be a blizzard. [link to twitter.com]

43 mRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Gas up your snowblowers, slow & late to the party GFS shows major weekend Nor'easter [link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/05/2013 12:12 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Joe Bastretardi
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 12:19 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Winter Not Over Yet
By Andrew at 5:47 PM

I do not believe that winter is over just yet, although we begin to approach the final weeks of the winter season.

Pictured above is the GFS Ensemble 500 millibar forecast for the very end of the forecast period, February 20th. High pressure has built in over the North Pole, and strong low pressure is present over south central Canada, extending into the Great Lakes. This is all in response to the sudden stratospheric warming we saw earlier on last month. The warming is now dying off, but its effects will continue for at least another week or two. During this time, previous warming will continue to propagate down to the surface, leading to increased chances for cold weather. One thing I am fairly certain of is the high latitude blocking finally making it into the North Pole. This blocking high pressure is already in northern Asia in the medium range, so only a slight shove north would result in the high pressure system reaching the North Pole. This could also be another effect of the previous sudden stratospheric warmings, or SSW's. SSW's are known to provoke blocking high pressure in the higher latitudes, so such a solution is certainly plausible. I do have some concerns about that small low pressure area in the Southwest US and high pressure area in the Pacific Northwest. That is a common set-up for a Rex Block pattern, which can induce warm and dry conditions over the East US- something snow lovers are certainly fearing.

Now, you may have seen some Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts that were moving into Phases 1-3 during this timeframe, which decreases cold and snow chances with each increasing phase. However, it looks like those models may be on the wrong track. As several global models have also been hinting at, this forecast shown above depicts Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies for the next few weeks. The images are centered over the Equatorial Pacific, where the MJO occurs. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the MJO changes phases by tropical convection moving from one part of the Equatorial Pacific to another. Cold and snow is most favored when this enhanced convection (negative OLR) is shown in the Atlantic or the Indian Ocean. The above forecast from the Roundy Waves Albany indicates that very powerful negative OLR anomalies may evolve going into the last week of February. It is plausible that the last week of February may then be very active. I would like to wait a little longer until we get closer to this timeframe, but right now, it appears that a cycling MJO in phases 8-2 may occur throughout February. Those three phases are notorious for bringing cold and snow to parts of the US in the cold season.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
DoorBert

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02/05/2013 12:20 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
GFS is gelling on EURO.

Looks like about 12" for Boston.

Stay tuned for updates.

[link to pbs.twimg.com]
 Quoting: DoorBert


Hi my friend! Thank's for info!!!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


hf
Wash

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02/05/2013 12:21 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
I'm in Nova Scotia. I've heard we should be looking forward to 40+ centimeters on Friday into Saturday.

I hate winter so much.
Roll Tide Roll.
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 12:29 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A heavy snow band is headed for Milwaukee to Chicago. Expect a quick inch of snow. [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 12:47 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

A winter storm is lurking for the Northeast: [link to wxug.us]
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 02:13 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @nwsnewyorkny: Flurries increase to a steady light snow, especially across Long Island into this evening. #ctwx #njwx #nywx
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 02:24 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z uncorks classic Nor'easter / blizzard, 973 mb -- hurricane force winds & extreme snows. Blockbuster. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Active storm track w/storm in Midwest at Day 6 & another Nor'easter for Day 9. If 1/3 pan out, then it's a big deal.
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 02:51 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Snow totals from recent ECMWF 12z model are massive. Widespread 1-2 feet+ thru 4-days. [link to twitter.com]


Last Edited by Luisport on 02/05/2013 02:52 PM
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 02:56 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

On heels of Nor'easter, ECMWF brings another storm, maybe stronger on similar track, SE US to New England. [link to twitter.com]

3 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Actually 2-pieces of energy combine: a friendly Alberta Clipper & then SE low. 24-hr precip (all snow for Mich) [link to twitter.com]
DoorBert

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02/05/2013 02:58 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Snow totals from recent ECMWF 12z model are massive. Widespread 1-2 feet+ thru 4-days. [link to twitter.com]

 Quoting: Luisport


That's a pretty credible forecast too!

Oh Shit
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 02:59 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Snow totals from recent ECMWF 12z model are massive. Widespread 1-2 feet+ thru 4-days. [link to twitter.com]

 Quoting: Luisport


That's a pretty credible forecast too!

Oh Shit
 Quoting: DoorBert


and the last maps are impressive...
Luisport (OP)

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02/05/2013 03:01 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Heavy snow falling in Chicago, reducing the visibility to 1/2 of a mile. [link to ow.ly]

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