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Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

 
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
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02/06/2013 03:24 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Blizzard Watch
Issued by NWS Boston (Southeast New England)

Affected Area: Central Middlesex County; Eastern Essex; Eastern Norfolk; Northern Bristol; Southeast Middlesex; Suffolk; Western Essex; Western Norfolk; Western Plymouth

A Potential Historic Winter Storm And Blizzard Is Expected To Drop 1 To 2 Feet Of Snow Across Much Of The Region Friday Into Saturday...

Blizzard Watch In Effect From Friday Morning Through Saturday Afternoon...

[link to www.simpleweatheralert.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 03:25 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
BLIZZARD WATCHES JUST ISSUED FOR RHODE ISLAND ALL THE WAY TO BOSTON...
 Quoting: Luisport


[link to forecast.weather.gov] very serious situation developing

Last Edited by Luisport on 02/06/2013 03:26 PM
DoorBert

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02/06/2013 03:25 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Re-pinned for history
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 03:27 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Re-pinned for history
 Quoting: DoorBert


Thank you so much! My friend this will be historical...
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 03:27 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

A blizzard watch is now in effect for Boston and eastern Mass. from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.
DoorBert

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02/06/2013 03:28 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1252 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
STORM SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

***WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING***

A QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT OUT TO EXPAND A WINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A FOOT OR MORE
OF SNOW AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. WE HAVE BROUGHT UP
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...BUT IT MAY NOT EVEN BE
ENOUGH IN SOME LOCALES. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND HOW FAR NORTH A TEMPORARY TRANSITION TO RAIN MAKES IT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AREAS THAT CHANGE
TO RAIN MAY GET HIT HARD BY THE COLD CONVEYER BELT. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. WILL HAVE MUCH MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

* POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRI INTO EARLY SAT
* STRONG WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN
* PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT DETAILS

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY....
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

MOST OF THE 06/00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL IDEA OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
06/00Z ECMWF HAS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF ITS LOW
PRESSURE...RESULTING IN FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR OUR REGION.
GIVEN THIS SHIFT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF AND FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH INCLUDED THE 05/12Z ECMWF. THIS WAS TO
MINIMIZE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE
DETAILS IN THE FORECAST.

THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE ALSO IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE
COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS
POINT...

THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES
COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW FAR INLAND DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE
MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR WEST.

TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 33805659
Portugal
02/06/2013 03:29 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Updated information from the Boston NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-070430-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:30 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Detroit and Buffalo to be clobbered by snow. Chicago's in for a wintry mix. Find out when: [link to ow.ly]
abeliever

User ID: 17868616
United States
02/06/2013 03:32 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Luis and DB - Please warn people in blizzard area to really stay off the roads. Trust me - been there, done it in '78!

Shop for foodstuffs now.

Stay home and watch the snow.
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:32 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AND THEN
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
DoorBert

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02/06/2013 03:32 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

[link to www.erh.noaa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:33 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Luis and DB - Please warn people in blizzard area to really stay off the roads. Trust me - been there, done it in '78!

Shop for foodstuffs now.

Stay home and watch the snow.
 Quoting: abeliever


bumpbumpbump
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:35 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

MAZ005>007-013>018-RIZ001>004-070430-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T0600Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1200Z-130209T2100Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOST ON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVID ENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

&&

$$
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
United States
02/06/2013 03:35 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
12Z GFS has it digging as a warm core well inside the benchmark.

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:36 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
[link to radblast-aws.wunderground.com] [link to radblast-aws.wunderground.com]
abeliever

User ID: 17868616
United States
02/06/2013 03:38 PM
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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
One more warning you guys...

In '78 they declared martial law. NO ONE could go one the roads without special permits.

Prepare for that ahead.

City people, put your car off the roads, it will be towed or buried for a month from the plows!!
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 33805659
Portugal
02/06/2013 03:39 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Luis and DB - Please warn people in blizzard area to really stay off the roads. Trust me - been there, done it in '78!

Shop for foodstuffs now.

Stay home and watch the snow.
 Quoting: abeliever


bumpbumpbump
 Quoting: Luisport


folks in the northeast, it looks more and more like a blizzard is going to develop up there friday on..make sure you check on the elderly and make sure they have their meds and supplies, a 1-2 foot snowfall with drifts will close roads etc...stay safe up there ok.
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 33805659
Portugal
02/06/2013 03:40 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
For those wondering what the 12z ECMWF had to say about snowfall totals, here you are 12z ECMWF Snowfall Total through 96hrs [link to i.imgur.com] image courtesy of weatherbell/Ryan Maue.
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:43 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
possible 50 mph wind gusts..whew..drifting snow for sure.......URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-070430-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:43 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION


Excerpt:


THE 12Z RUNS INCREASINGLY POINT TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURES OF THE
LOW FALL TO THE 970S TO LOW 980S WITHIN THE 12Z RUNS. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AND AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 24 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ARE FOUND JUST NORTHWEST FROM WHERE THE CYCLONE
DECELERATES AND EVEN MAY MAKE A BIT OF A LOOP AROUND ITSELF ON
SATURDAY. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ALSO SHOW THE LOW THEN MAKING A
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE PULLING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SAME KIND OF BEHAVIOR EXHIBITED BY
SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...SUCH AS THE MORE RECENT BLIZZARD
OF 2005/APRIL FOOLS BLIZZARD OF 1997...THAT THIS STORM MAY ALSO
EXHIBIT.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...VERY HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT IN MUCH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
02/06/2013 03:46 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
There appears to be a developing MCV just off of the Upper Texas Coast. [link to radar.weather.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 03:47 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

***WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING***

A QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT OUT TO EXPAND A WINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A FOOT OR MORE
OF SNOW AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. WE HAVE BROUGHT UP
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...BUT IT MAY NOT EVEN BE
ENOUGH IN SOME LOCALES. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND HOW FAR NORTH A TEMPORARY TRANSITION TO RAIN MAKES IT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AREAS THAT CHANGE
TO RAIN MAY GET HIT HARD BY THE COLD CONVEYER BELT. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. WILL HAVE MUCH MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

* POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRI INTO EARLY SAT
* STRONG WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN
* PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT DETAILS

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY....
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

MOST OF THE 06/00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL IDEA OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
06/00Z ECMWF HAS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF ITS LOW
PRESSURE...RESULTING IN FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR OUR REGION.
GIVEN THIS SHIFT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF AND FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH INCLUDED THE 05/12Z ECMWF. THIS WAS TO
MINIMIZE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE
DETAILS IN THE FORECAST.

THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE ALSO IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE
COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS
POINT...

THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES
COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW FAR INLAND DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE
MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR WEST.

TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 03:48 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER
OF PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARDS...POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
GREATER THAN A FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...AND ALSO IN SECTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL PERHAPS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY...FALLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
United States
02/06/2013 03:52 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Pretty much off the chart on 12Z GFS - awesome!!

[link to grib2.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 03:57 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
[link to www.boston.com]
DoorBert

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02/06/2013 03:58 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
12Z NAM pegged out at 48"

I have never seen that before.

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Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 03:59 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
[link to static.baynews9.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 04:00 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
12Z NAM pegged out at 48"

I have never seen that before.

[link to www.twisterdata.com]
 Quoting: DoorBert


bumpbumpbump
Luisport (OP)

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02/06/2013 04:09 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
344. LargoFl09:08 PM GMT em 06 de Fevereiro de 2013

Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
If they maybe looking a t a foot or more snow forecast for New England especially Cape Cod and Southern Maine i wonder what the potential snow amounts for Nova Scotia, and Eastern P.E.I would be.
the Euro model is now predicting more than 24 inches for the boston area

[link to www.wunderground.com]
DoorBert

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02/06/2013 04:09 PM

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Re: Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Winter Storm Watch just issued for NYC metro

Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
4:01 pm EST, Wed., Feb. 6, 2013

... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* WINDS... NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES... IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING... FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS... HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION... THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS... BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS... AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[link to www.weather.com]

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