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Message Subject Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
116 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRI INTO EARLY SAT
* STRONG WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN
* PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT DETAILS

THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TO THE ECMWF IDEA OF SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS STORM THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES. THERE ALSO IS A DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A
CLASSIC SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE
COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINES
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS POINT:

(1) THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD
AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

(2) THE OTHER ISSUE IS DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAKE IT BACK
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE
DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD
SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR
WEST.

TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.


[link to forecast.weather.gov]
 
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