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Message Subject Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
It looks like the probability for a big outbreak early next week is not in the cards.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITY /AROUND 15 PERCENT/ IS EVIDENT FROM PARTS
OF THE MID-SOUTH TO THE WRN GULF COAST ON D5/SUN. DECREASING
PREDICTABILITY THEREAFTER RENDERS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR D6-8.

GFS/MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
PRIOR ECMWF/CMC DEPICTIONS OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING
FROM THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
D5. THIS RENDERS INCREASED CONFIDENCE OVER THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...BUT BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH LINGERING
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DETAILED TIMING/INTENSITY/TRACK OF
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

RETURN FLOW ALONG THE WRN GULF WILL COMMENCE FRI NIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
SEEMINGLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING D5 AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF
COAST. SUCH ABUNDANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE NEWD
EXTENT OF MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE CONSENSUS
TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WOULD REMAIN WELL-DIVORCED FROM THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE. AS
SUCH...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON D5...BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR A0A 30 PERCENT ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 02/06/2013
 
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