Model Diagnostic Discussion

Excerpt:


NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE NAM ARE EVIDENT AS THE 12Z RUN HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE TROF/SFC LOW ACRS THE OUTER BANKS ON 08/1200Z. THIS CONTINUES FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD AS THE 12Z NAM IS STRONGER AND MORE TO THE N/W RELATIVE TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. EVENTUALLY IT BEGINS LOOKING LIKE THE 06Z RUN ACRS RI BY SAT MORNING. RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER THE OUTER BANKS WITH THE 12Z NAM FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN. AGAIN...THE MOST OUTLYING SOLN APPEARS TO BE THE 00Z UKMET WHICH IS WEAKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. THE FOLLOWING 12 HRS ARE MOST CRUCIAL WHERE MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING ON A PARTICULAR SOLN. AT 09/0000Z...THE 12Z NAM ENDS UP BEING THE FARTHEST W MODEL WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN JUST OFF TO ITS E. FURTHER...THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN IS E OF THE ECMWF SUITE OF SOLNS WHICH HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST SEVERAL ENS RUNS. THE ENS SFC LOW PLOTS ACCURATELY DEPICT THIS DIVERGING OF OPINIONS ALBEIT WITH DIMINISHING SPREAD RELATIVE TO FEB 6 (00Z/12Z) GUIDANCE. ON A SIDE...THE 00Z UKMET IS THE MOST OFFSHORE SOLN WITH NO SUPPORT AT THIS TIME. [link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]