2012 DA14 WILL hit earth.. Confirmed.

Here is some helpful information to add to this debate from taken from NASA.GOV's article pertaining to this particular NEO.:

Full Article: [link to www.nasa.gov]

"Q: What is asteroid DA14
A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a small near-Earth object – approximately 150 feet (45 meters) in diameter. On Feb. 15, 2013, the asteroid will pass by our planet at a remarkably close distance, but the asteroid’s path is understood well enough that there is no chance of a collision with the Earth.


Q: What date and what time will the asteroid be closest to Earth?
A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will be closest to Earth on Feb. 15 at approximately 19:24 UTC (2:24 p.m. EST/11:24 a.m. PST). This time may change by a minute or two as the asteroid is tracked on its approach and predictions are refined.

At the time of closest approach, the asteroid will be over the eastern Indian Ocean, off Sumatra -- approx. latitude: -6 deg South. / longitude: 97.5 deg East.

Q: What would happen if DA14 were to impact Earth?
A: Asteroid 2012 DA14 will not impact Earth, but if another asteroid of a size similar to that of 2012 DA14 (about 150 feet across) were to impact Earth, it would release approximately 2.5 megatons of energy in the atmosphere and would be expected to cause regional devastation.

A comparison to the impact potential of an asteroid the size of 2012 DA14 could be made to the impact of a near-Earth object that occurred in 1908 in Tuguska, Siberia. Known in the asteroid community as the "Tunguska Event," this impact of an asteroid just slightly smaller than 2012 DA14 (approximately 100 – 130 feet/30-40 meters across) is believed to have flattened about 750 square miles (1,200 square kilometers) of forest in and around the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia."

--END QUOTE--


Having said all that, I will say I agree with the idea of a cover up, non-warning scenario, if this thing were to be projected to hit us, to prevent mass hysteria. On that note I will bring up a similar incident in 2002-2003 with 2002 NT7 where it was discovered as an object likely to impact and the information was released to the public. Many many articles and stories were published online and even in main stream news claiming doomsday and apocalypse were imminent. Example: [link to www.jerrypournelle.com] It turned out to be redefined as usual once additional observations were obtained. My point? They did tell us. It doesn't mean they will tell us in the future, but goes to show, I suppose, that the future is just...uncertain.

It is fun sometimes and even exciting to speculate, but let's not assume anything in our amazing physical would is 100% certain. Certainty is only in death! Everything else is constantly changing and subject to unforeseen variables such that only time will tell the real outcome. Enjoy! Life is exciting, no?

Last Edited by McKenna on 02/05/2013 01:26 PM

when I first checked the stats on DA14 a couple months ago the probability of impact was high

a month or so later when I went back to recheck the same states it was listed as NIL

hence it was changed, dramatically

I thought that odd but what isn't these days

Are you kidding? The probably of impact on Feb 15 was nil even as early as March of 2012!
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
You might be thinking of the cumulative probability for all future dates, but the first possible impact wasn't for years to come and with the data we have now we can rule out all possibilities for about the next century. On January 11th new astrometric data was acquired, greatly expanding the baseline of the observations.

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 02/05/2013 01:42 PM

Observation

Watching near earth asteroids for the last couple of years, no not from my own observatory, but through JPL, this is the FIRST near Earth event I have ever seen them use "condition code 0".

Last Edited by TS66 on 02/05/2013 01:46 PM

So, in other words, his assertions were never debunked.

Thanks!

Well, first of all.. The Tunguska wasn't an impact, but an airburst.. at
somewhere between 15,000-30,000 feet.

No fragments have been found.. no crater. The object
vaporized.

Secondly... the size was between 50-100 meters..

Thirdly... it flattened 500,000 acres[2000 square km].

And, finally... released the energy of 15 megatons of TNT.


Why are they downplaying this, I wonder...?

Well the astrometric data we now have spans nearly a year of time, and the asteroid's orbital period is that of about a year, so that shouldn't surprise you. Condition code 0 means the orbit is very accurately determined, but the condition code cannot tell you whether a given asteroid might be a threat to impact on a given encounter or not. That's not what it's there for.

Thanks for that waterbug

They're bunk; he claims "The asteroid may break into dozens of small pieces, or several large lumps may split from it and burn up in the atmosphere." Again bullshit, if it were to break up the pieces would continue along the original orbit of the asteroid and they would all miss earth entirely. Please learn to read.

Regardless of your opinion of as to why, it never has been "0".

Last Edited by TS66 on 02/05/2013 02:05 PM

My opinion... I understand why it is that low, it is because we have very recent astrometric data and a span of data approximately equal to or greater than the orbital period of the asteroid. That is a fact, that's just how it is, not an opinion. And no, this is not the first encounter where the number has been "0." Known asteroids with well-established orbits have condition code "0." Take 1999 HA2 for instance. It's making a close approach tonight at 0.149135 AUs. Condition code 0. Data span in excess of 13 years and the latest observation was on Christmas eve, that's why.

I just found your thread, and thought you might want
to check out the one I'm running today on finding
a confirmation for similar theory to yours in the
movie "Deep Impact." The date: 2-15-2013 is clearly
embedded in a product word called: ENSURE.

Thread: 2012-DA14 "Beiderman Fragment" IMPACTS Russia--THIS IS FAR FROM OVER! Cover-up?

It really to revisit the movie and one of my older threads on the movie to find 2-15-2013--It blew me away, because I didn't hear about 2012-AD14 until YESTERDAY. I saw "Deep Impact way back in 1998....interesting...almost creepie...
how the mind works that I'd be chewing on this in
the back-burner all these years! Wow!
Hope you come in!
Glad you posted this thread--I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT!

cHEERS!
sk




Last Edited by SilentlyKnowing on 02/05/2013 02:29 PM

2005 RZ2, another good example. It makes a close approach the same day as 2012 DA14, at 0.081053 AUs. 7 year data span, latest observation was in September 2012. Well established orbit, condition code 0.

That's your fault for paying more attention to hollywood movies than you do to real asteroids.

58 LDs is a far cry from 0.09 LDs, and it is almost on top of us, therefore far easier to call "0". 2012 DA14 however IS a near earth asteroid, and according to JPL, it's last analysis is based on data from almost a month ago .... although I would hope someone would be keeping a closer eye on this thing than that

solution date 2013-Jan-12 00:51:33
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

I love this part:



Rather than jumping to ridiculous conclusions and assuming bad motives in others, how about informing yourself first. Then you won't end up making ignorant posts; it will NOT impact us and it is approaching from the south to the north; it won't be visible to any telescopes in Arizona until well after it passes the point of closest approach on the 15th! It doesn't even get 20 degrees high up in the sky in Arizona until the 16th GMT time (the timezone of astronomy). It's not a secret message, it's basic astronomy. Look up the azimuth and altitude of this asteroid at every hour over the next few days as seen from Arizona and you'll see what I mean (yes, you'll need to adjust the table settings to include apparent az, alt):
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Keep yer eyes peeled..


2007..
[link to www.nytimes.com]

NASA can find and track most of the nearby asteroids that could hit and damage the Earth, but there is not enough money in its budget to finish the project within a 15-year deadline mandated by Congress, according to an agency report released Friday.

The report said there were about 20,000 asteroids and comets orbiting relatively close to our planet that could deliver blows ranging from destroying cities to ending all life.

These objects, 150 yards to more than a mile in diameter, represent about 20 percent of the asteroids and comets whose paths routinely pass between the Sun and the Earth’s orbit, it said. Rather than trying to detect, track, catalog and characterize all of the more than 100,000 “near Earth objects,” as Congress asked in a 2005 NASA authorization bill, the study said it would be more realistic to focus on those representing a real potential hazard.

Do you mean "1999 YK5" @ 49.1 LDs ???

Last Edited by TS66 on 02/05/2013 02:20 PM

LMFAO! The condition code has nothing to do with how close it is or isn't getting. I just gave you multiple examples of close approaches that occur in the next few days with condition code 0, in direct contradiction to your claim.

So what? They have a time span of nearly a year now, the asteroid's orbital period is less than a year, and the latest observation is less than a month old. They also have nearly 200 astrometric readings in that time span. That means the orbit is very well determined. Tell me, how much analysis have you done on the astrometric data? Any at all?

AU Distance 0.0002

I mean what I said, do not change what I said. 2005 RZ2.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

No, and I don't need to to make this point, just reciting the facts from JPL.

OP is a fear mongering idiot.. Confirmed.

Your arrogance is your undoing.


See below.

I just gave you multiple examples that contradicted your claim that this is the only time an asteroid has made a close approach with a condition code of "0." (Which means the orbit is well determined, by the way). You don't seem to understand what the condition code is or how it is derived. You can recite the latest observation date all you like, it doesn't change the fact that you do not understand how accurately the orbit has been determined by the current astrometric data or how having a time span of nearly a year leading up to just a few weeks ago greatly helps the determination of the orbit. You haven't done any analysis of the astrometric data for yourself so you remain ignorant of how adding observations spaced apart by that much time greatly refines the determination of the orbit.

Yes, but you don't really seem to understand the facts that you're quoting. As a result, you're misrepresenting them.

It is not arrogance, it is first hand experience of working with the data, something you have not done.

Oh please may this thing hone on astromut, once he starts posting on a thread. that's it .. I moving to the next one ..

The condition code is the confidence levl the reporting agency has on their predicted orbit.

It does not take a rocket scientist, or you for that matter to realize that there is a tremendous difference between 58 LDs and 0.09 LDs. In fact I don't even follow asteroids that are 58 LDs away.... near earth is near earth, not many moons away !!! lol.

I'm not saying this thing will hit, I am saying that this confidence code is arrogant if not an opioid of the masses at best.

Last Edited by TS66 on 02/05/2013 02:36 PM