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A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 13926736
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02/06/2013 02:56 PM
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A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
According to Barron's columnist Steven Sears, someone made a big bet against the financials ETF yesterday (ticker symbol XLF), and it has everybody buzzing.
The trader bought 100,000 put options on the ETF (a put option increases in value when the price of the underlying asset, in this case, the ETF, goes down).
To put that number in perspective, Sears writes, "Few investors ever trade more than 500 contracts, so a 100,000 order tends to stop traffic and prompt all sorts of speculation about what's motivating the trade." According to Sears, the trade "has sparked conversations across the market."
The trade makes money if the ETF drops below $16. It's trading just north of $17.50 today.
While the bet has everyone scratching their heads, Sears offers one possible explanation: bank


Read more: [link to www.businessinsider.com]
Face Palmer
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02/06/2013 03:08 PM

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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
bump
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:24 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Thanks for the bump,

Now more traders are going in...


16.00 XLF130420P00016000 0.14 0.01 0.14 0.15 40,597 409,683
17.00 XLF130420P00017000 0.33 0.02 0.32 0.33 20,950 242,356
Face Palmer
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02/06/2013 03:25 PM

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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Any particular bank?
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:28 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
It's for the market over all, so someone knows it will hit all:
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 03:28 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Let me guess, if they lose the bet it's someone else's money, if they win its' theirs?

pennywise
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:29 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Some Trader Has Made A Very Big Bet That Something Very Bad Will Happen Within The Next 60 Days
Sam Ro | Feb. 6, 2013, 9:37 AM | 10,990 | 29

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CNBC
Stocks have been rallying relentlessly to post-crisis highs.
Meanwhile, the volatility index (aka the VIX, aka the "fear index") is near historic lows.
But according to UBS's Art Cashin, some options trader has made an enormous $11.25 million bet that the VIX will explode higher very soon.
And a rally in the VIX is usually accompanied by a drop in the stock markets.
From this morning's Cashin's Comments (emphasis ours):
A Very Big Bet In A Somewhat Unlikely Instrument – My friend, Jim Brown, the ever-alert consummate professional over at Option Investor pointed us to a rather unusual trade. Here's what he wrote in last night's edition of his valuable newsletter:
In past years I have reported on trades that were so large it appeared someone had inside knowledge of a pending event. Sometimes those were massive put positions on the S&P. A new trade just appeared that suggests there will be a market event in the near future. Last week somebody put on a call spread on the VIX using the April 20 and 25 puts. They bought 150,000 contracts for a net of $75 per contract. That is an $11,250,000 bet that the VIX will move over 20 over the next 60 days. You would have to be VERY confident in your outlook to risk $11 million on a directional position with the VIX at five year lows and the markets trying to break out to new highs.
Jim then goes on to list some of the scheduled events and deadlines visible over the next 60 days (mostly in Washington). When you add in the broad variety of geo-political possibilities, it's a decent reason to stay extra alert.
Hopefully, this person is wrong.


Read more: [link to www.businessinsider.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:34 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Let me guess, if they lose the bet it's someone else's money, if they win its' theirs?


YEP
Face Palmer
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02/06/2013 03:36 PM

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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
hmm When do these put options expire?
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:44 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
When do these put options expire?

4/13/2013
Face Palmer
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02/06/2013 03:45 PM

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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
When do these put options expire?

4/13/2013
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13926736


9 weeks to go. Okay. Thanks for the heads up!
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:46 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Heres today's # looks like more are buying

XLF Apr 2013 16.000 put (XLF130420P00016000) -OPR
0.15 0.02(15.38%) 3:25PM EST
Add to Portfolio
Prev Close: 0.13
Open: 0.15
Bid: 0.14
Ask: 0.15
Strike: 16.00
Expire Date: 19-Apr-13
Day's Range: 0.14 - 0.15
Contract Range: N/A - N/A
Volume: 40,598
Open Interest: 409,683
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:47 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
9 weeks to go. Okay. Thanks for the heads up!


No I think it's more like 4 weeks, you dont buy that much $$$ and go down to the wire.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:49 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
o I think it's more like 4 weeks, you dont buy that much $$$ and go down to the wire.


You need time to take the retails money.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:50 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
BTW: it s 4/19/2013
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:51 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
DHS Insider: Obama’s cyber warriors & preparing for collapse
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 03:51 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
The printing press will make them worthless PUTS !
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:52 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Billionaires Dumping Stocks as we Speak!!!!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 03:53 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
The printing press will make them worthless PUTS !

1st YES, over months

2nd Roll profits to oil ASAP
Face Palmer
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02/06/2013 03:55 PM

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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Lots of turmoil in the PM markets lately too. We may be witnessing something soon.
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 03:55 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
While certainly something to keep an eye on, i have heard this before.

....and nothing substancial occurred.
waht

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02/06/2013 03:57 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Danger Is Imminent: According To Numerous High-Level Insiders, We’re In A Dangerous Global Currency War. Insiders Are Now Aggressively Bearish, And Selling Stocks — At An Alarming Pace!!

[link to investmentwatchblog.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/06/2013 03:58 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing

Billionaires Dumping Stocks as we Speak!!!!
[/quote

??? Link, story, where are you seeing this?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 04:00 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
This is the end game, great interview with Hong Kong MM

[link to www.kingworldnews.com]
Face Palmer
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02/06/2013 04:02 PM

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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
This is the end game, great interview with Hong Kong MM

[link to www.kingworldnews.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13926736


KWN claims this being the endgame for years now. Just saying. Keep watching.
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 04:09 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
KWN claims this being the endgame for years now. Just saying. Keep watching.

1st Agree

2nd this is not them saying it but an insider,
Face Palmer
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02/06/2013 04:10 PM

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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
KWN claims this being the endgame for years now. Just saying. Keep watching.

1st Agree

2nd this is not them saying it but an insider,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13926736


Yeah. Always insiders on KWN.
"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
GFX guy

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02/06/2013 04:11 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
This is the end game, great interview with Hong Kong MM

[link to www.kingworldnews.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13926736


KWN claims this being the endgame for years now. Just saying. Keep watching.
 Quoting: Face Palmer


True... but haven't things been going down for years just as if it were the endgame? It must take a long time to loot system.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 04:11 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
Great interview!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/06/2013 04:12 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
True... but haven't things been going down for years just as if it were the endgame? It must take a long time to loot system.

I think this is the flush
SwanSong
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02/06/2013 04:16 PM
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Re: A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing
When do these put options expire?

4/13/2013
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13926736


13

and another


13

As of late Gold hasbeen hovering at 666 more than once or twice. If it keeps it up there willbe a big drop in gold sht-paper.

When the paper goes down that is the time for poor man to buy/have gold. Father loves the poor.

Haggai 2:8:
The silver is mine, and the gold is mine, saith the LORD of hosts.

Ron Paul:
Federal Reserve:
[link to www.youtube.com]

Ron Paul's Urgent Warning On The Inevitable Collapse Of The Dollar:
[link to www.youtube.com]

Kennedy 11110:
[link to www.youtube.com]

News