As a survivalist I'm pretty ceartin that if he is in fact on Big Bear he is dead. There is no way he would be able to survive under cover this long evading police. It would be hard enough to do in the current weather conditions trying to be found!

With this being said, if he is as trained as they claim he is the last thing he would do is go into Big Bear and decrease his chances of survival. The only way I feel he is on that mountain or alive is if he had areas on the mountain that were ready ahead of time. Even then at this point he would require fire ( if outside ) to survive.

IMO he is either dead on Big Bear or was never on Big Bear for an extended period of time after the truck was burnt up.