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the future of drone warfare

 
s. d. butler

User ID: 974819
United States
02/07/2013 07:35 PM
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the future of drone warfare
This is interesting. The author is saying that the reason for the success of drones is because the US is an early adopter and that eventually this early adopter edge will disappear.

It is similar to any other military advance. It works well early on but only until defenses and counter measures are worked out that will certainly be better than exist now.


[link to c4ss.org]

excerpt full article at link


Even John Robb, my favorite writer on networked resistance and asymmetric warfare, seems to take a dark view of the long-term effect of drones. The main advantage of his resilient communities, as he sees them, is that they’re too small, decentralized and hardened to present high-profile targets to states in their death throes.

But that’s far too pessimistic an assessment, in my opinion. The apparent spectacular successes of drone warfare in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen are actually just early adopter advantages accruing to the first powerful states to put drones to use. This says absolutely nothing about the overall effect of drone technology as we move down the cost curve — any more than we could have predicted the institutional effects of cybernetics and the Internet based on the enormous vacuum tube mainframe computers of the late 1940s.

It’s a fair guess that increasingly sophisticated, autonomous hunter-killer drones will be governed by an exponential rate of cost reduction comparable to that described in Moore’s Law. In a few years time, we can expect remote-controlled or autonomous armed drones available as open-source, off-the-shelf technology that networked resistance movements can churn out with cheap tabletop CNC machines in their own garage factories.

When that happens, and the “World’s Sole Remaining Superpower” loses its early-adopter advantage, drone technology will work to the advantage of the side with the most decentralized, distributed organizational infrastructure, and the most widely dispersed and hardened end-points. And it will disproportionately hurt the side with the most centralized, hierarchical form of organization and the most concentrated target profile. Anyone want to venture a guess as to which respective sides fit those descriptions?

Last Edited by s. d. butler on 02/07/2013 07:42 PM
Chrit

User ID: 27088294
United States
02/21/2013 07:55 PM

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Re: the future of drone warfare
Good read but I see something else happening.

Example: I expect fighters to become unmanned, “pilot” of the plane puts on a helm and can literally see from the planes perspective in 360 full panoramic as if they are sitting in the cockpit and can view as if the aircraft was invisible as they sit 3000 miles away from the fight in a bunker. The G forces fighters can produce can kill the pilot if the computers did not control it. But without a pilot that plane can pull that many more G’s, thrust vectoring is a lot more useful without a pilot. The way they fly drones now is a joke.

The numbers of crappy drones will also increase and they will be dirt cheap soon.

Same will happen with tanks, we will have unmanned tanks with crazy reaction times because of how the commander will be able to see the battlefield.

The best point the article makes though is true, are you going to put all these pilots in a single area? Where is “safe” to run a war from a single room ever? BOOM game over in one hit? WE have to be able to fight a two front war, we have to keep command structures separate and we have to stay decentralized, too bad we are already failing at that last one and helping china’s military build there decentralized factory infrastructure as ours becomes a rust belt nightmare.


Still good stuff to think about.
I'm only human, it's my biggest flaw.

We must all realize a sink a chair and a pillow are all luxuries of home and a soldiers helmet takes the place of all three.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34824387
Canada
02/21/2013 08:05 PM
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Re: the future of drone warfare
B-52 has a launch platform.

Is what I would do.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34824387
Canada
02/21/2013 08:18 PM
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Re: the future of drone warfare
The F-22 and F-35 might be the last 'manned' fighters...
Chrit

User ID: 27088294
United States
02/21/2013 08:24 PM

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Re: the future of drone warfare
The F-22 and F-35 might be the last 'manned' fighters...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34824387


They were designed to be unmanned.

This is a good read.


[link to www.f-16.net]


The F-35 is built 100% for it already.


No reason that piloit has to be in the plane.

F35HUDHELM
I'm only human, it's my biggest flaw.

We must all realize a sink a chair and a pillow are all luxuries of home and a soldiers helmet takes the place of all three.

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