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Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"

 
Kimpy2
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02/09/2013 08:55 AM
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Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Also, do NOT miss reading threads from Children of the Atom today!

[link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]

ASTROMETRY IS URGENTLY NEEDED

2012 DA14 was discovered by the La Sagra Sky Survey in Spain on February 23, 2012. This object will make an extremely close approach to within 0.00023 AU of Earth at 19:25 UT (11:25 AM PST) on February 15, 2013. That is only 0.09 lunar distances or 5.4 Earth radii from the center of the Earth. The close approach will be about 28000 km above Earth's
surface. That's inside the distance to geosynchronous satellites but thousands of kilometers above the elevation for low-Earth-orbit spacecraft such as the International Space Station.
At the time of closest approach, the asteroid will move about 0.8 degrees per minute.

The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically
during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter.

2012 DA14's absolute magnitude of 24.4 suggests a diameter within a factor of two of about 50 meters.
Nick Moskovitz (Carnegie Institution, Washington, DC) reported that he obtained lightcurves and
spectroscopy shortly after 2012 DA14 was discovered. The asteroid has a rotation period of about 6 hours
and it's an L-class object, hinting that it has an optical albedo of about 0.2. The lightcurve
amplitude is close to one magnitude, so the shape is probably elongated. Nothing else is known
about this object.

Due to the extremely close approach, this object will be a very strong radar target at Goldstone
and we plan to image it with the highest resolution available (3.75 meters) from the chirp system.
The round-trip time on the first track on Feb. 16 is so short that observations on that day
will be bistatic with reception of radar echoes at DSS-13.

2012 DA14 will approach from the south and will enter Goldstone's declination window on February 16, 2013,
shortly after the closest approach. Afterward it will be a circumpolar object as it recedes from Earth.

Radar observations at Goldstone are scheduled on 2013 Feb. 16, 18, 19, and 20.

We need additional astrometry to improve the orbit. As a result, below we list circumstances for optical
observations starting many months before the encounter in order to help facilitate observations
by optical observers. The apparent magnitudes will be fainter than 22nd until until the beginning of
February, but the solar elongation will be only about 60 degrees, so obtaining optical astrometry
will be challenging. In addition, the asteroid will be at far southern declinations until Feb. 15
when it will move from about -75 deg to +75 deg in only a few hours.

This object will not be observable at Arecibo.

2012 DA14 will brighten to about 7th magnitude at the time of the closest approach, when observers
in Asia might be able to see it with binoculars and small telescopes. Doing so will require
knowing very precisely where to look and will require a site-specific ephemeris due to parallax.

2012 DA14 is too small to be classified as a "Potentially Hazardous Asteroid" (PHA) by the Minor
Planet Center.

Radar observations are also planned by other researchers at the EISCAT radar near Tromso, Norway
starting at 20:00 UT on Feb. 15 and at the Haystack Observatory in Massachusetts starting at 22:00 UT
on Feb. 15. Goldstone observations start at 03:00 UT on Feb. 16, several hours after observations
begin at the other radars.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 08:58 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically
during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter.

[link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]
Kimpy2 (OP)
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02/09/2013 09:17 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically
during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter.

[link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


The point is, closest approach has now dropped 3,000 mi. (from 17,000 mi. to 14,000 mi. OVERNIGHT, and we have 6 days to go. Look at the astonishing, intensifying graph sequences on Children of the Atom thread this a.m. from Meteorscan.com (I.e. Meteor Detection and Radio Astronomy. You must study Children of the Atom's screenshots he has posted, because the site is constantly updating, as you know. I'm watching COTA threads through the rest of this harrowing Velakovskian moment in all our lives!

[link to m.youtube.com]

yoda
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:19 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
14,000 miles is basically a hairs width in astronomical terms.
I fully do not believe that they have accurate enough data to pin it down 100% to such a degree.

Prepare for impact.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:21 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
Ice
ice

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02/09/2013 09:21 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Pin
Chill - Enjoy - Relax
Kimpy2 (OP)
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02/09/2013 09:22 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically
during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter.

[link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


The point is, closest approach has now dropped 3,000 mi. (from 17,000 mi. to 14,000 mi. OVERNIGHT, and we have 6 days to go. Look at the astonishing, intensifying graph sequences on Children of the Atom thread this a.m. from Meteorscan.com (I.e. Meteor Detection and Radio Astronomy. You must study Children of the Atom's screenshots he has posted, because the site is constantly updating, as you know. I'm watching COTA threads through the rest of this harrowing Velakovskian moment in all our lives!

[link to m.youtube.com]

yoda
 Quoting: Kimpy2 20290901


Velikovskian (excuse my misspelling)
yoda
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:24 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
as i've explained in the other thread already, even if it impacts, it's going to have the force of a small nuclear weapon. unless it lands on a city, it won't have much effect relatively speaking, although people will still die. if it hits the ocean the wave will be small. ~100k metric tons at ~4000km/h impact is only a few dozen kilotons at most.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:24 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
14,000 miles is basically a hairs width in astronomical terms.
I fully do not believe that they have accurate enough data to pin it down 100% to such a degree.

Prepare for impact.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546575


^^ This.

clappa
pepe3797

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02/09/2013 09:25 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
bump
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:26 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
14,000 miles is basically a hairs width in astronomical terms.
I fully do not believe that they have accurate enough data to pin it down 100% to such a degree.

Prepare for impact.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546575


You mean wait for impact.

No way to prepare.
Skuzzlebutt

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02/09/2013 09:28 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
COMMANDING OFFICER: We estimate it has a diameter of over five hundred and fifty kilometers and a mass roughly one fourth the size of our moon.

GENERAL GREY: A meteor?

SECOND OFFICER: No Sir. Definitely not.

GENERAL GREY: How do you know?

SECOND OFFICER: Well, er... it's slowing down.

GENERAL GREY: It's doing what?

SECOND OFFICER: It's... slowing down, Sir.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:29 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
A lowering of the object by 3000 miles(which is huge) will significantly chance it's trajectory.

This overnight chance blows all their predictions out of the water.

This could be interesting... cool2
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:30 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
COMMANDING OFFICER: We estimate it has a diameter of over five hundred and fifty kilometers and a mass roughly one fourth the size of our moon.

GENERAL GREY: A meteor?

SECOND OFFICER: No Sir. Definitely not.

GENERAL GREY: How do you know?

SECOND OFFICER: Well, er... it's slowing down.

GENERAL GREY: It's doing what?

SECOND OFFICER: It's... slowing down, Sir.
 Quoting: Skuzzlebutt


The 4400 ?
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:30 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
14,000 miles is basically a hairs width in astronomical terms.
I fully do not believe that they have accurate enough data to pin it down 100% to such a degree.

Prepare for impact.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546575


You mean wait for impact.

No way to prepare.
 Quoting: TL<3EB


Get panic sex partner a worked up.

Going out with a bang!
Skuzzlebutt

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02/09/2013 09:31 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
what sort of damage would a rock of this size do?

because 50meters is absolutely microscopic in terms of the universe
phoenixe

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02/09/2013 09:32 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
as i have no time to study it myself - does anyone know where it is going to pass as in "in which countries i can see it" ?
would be good to know where it comes down if ;)
Crazy Harriet

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02/09/2013 09:32 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
How big is it?

(nobody can read everything on the internet)

This is getting interesting.

Thanks, OP!
Not another lousy foreign actor in the White House - Liam Neeson 2016! A foreign actor you can believe in.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:33 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Final countdown
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:34 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
as i have no time to study it myself - does anyone know where it is going to pass as in "in which countries i can see it" ?
would be good to know where it comes down if ;)
 Quoting: phoenixe


Im gonna run underneath it if it comes close enough
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:35 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
14,000 miles is basically a hairs width in astronomical terms.
I fully do not believe that they have accurate enough data to pin it down 100% to such a degree.

Prepare for impact.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546575


14,000 miles travelling at 17,000 mph. That's a bullet, and if they're off at all, it's gonna hit us right in the noggin.
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
How big is it?

(nobody can read everything on the internet)

This is getting interesting.

Thanks, OP!
 Quoting: Crazy Harriet


Size of a football field supposedly.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:36 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Probably would hit southern hemisphere

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]


Chances are really great it would hit water. Southern hemisphere is 80% water.
Kimpy2 (OP)
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02/09/2013 09:39 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
as i have no time to study it myself - does anyone know where it is going to pass as in "in which countries i can see it" ?
would be good to know where it comes down if ;)
 Quoting: phoenixe


NASA says it will be visible from Asia with proper optics and precise coordinates (unless it comes closer; at that point, throw away your binocs and KYSA Buh-bye!)
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
astrobanner2
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02/09/2013 09:40 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
They must have underestimated its mass by quit a margin...

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02/09/2013 09:41 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
This thread title (and other similar ones lately) reminded me of a really good sci-fi book I read some years ago, Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle.

Basically there's a comet (not an asteroid, I know, but go with it) headed toward Earth, NASA and everyone else keeps insisting it won't hit Earth, but the data they get as it gets closer keeps showing smaller and smaller distances. They never do say publicly that it will hit, even after they know without much doubt that it will. And of course, chaos ensues. Very realistically done, also - great book.

Wouldn't want to be here if the damn thing hit Earth though. This asteroid wouldn't be as bad, as long as you're far enough away from it. Or well, maybe it would be.

But still, 14,000 miles is still a long distance (as everyone kept saying in aforementioned book... *ahem*). It's a little more than the diameter of the Earth, I think.
Skuzzlebutt

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02/09/2013 09:42 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
ET will block asteroid impacts
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:42 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So, a three thousand mile adjustment is not significant at all?
It reaffirms their confidence of its "well known" trajectory?

Interesting... hmmscratching
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02/09/2013 09:42 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro

Remember when that Mars probe missed the planet because they forgot to convert from miles to km?

Yeah. NASA if funny!
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:42 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
what sort of damage would a rock of this size do?

because 50meters is absolutely microscopic in terms of the universe
 Quoting: Skuzzlebutt



Here you go: Earth impact calculator

[link to impact.ese.ic.ac.uk]

You do the math...

But DA14 isn't a threat at all. 14,000 miles is still a big distance. The object is merely 50 m big.

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