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Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:43 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro

Remember when that Mars probe missed the planet because they forgot to convert from miles to km?

Yeah. NASA if funny
!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33998610


they are dumb
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/09/2013 09:44 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro

Remember when that Mars probe missed the planet because they forgot to convert from miles to km?

Yeah. NASA if funny!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33998610


Irrelevant, apples and oranges to the current situation.
astrobanner2
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02/09/2013 09:48 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
No need to worry, everything is fine. Just continue to go about your daily business as usual
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:49 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Where does it now say "14,000" miles? The link you provided says 28,000 kilometers which is still 17,000 miles.
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02/09/2013 09:50 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So, a three thousand mile adjustment is not significant at all?
It reaffirms their confidence of its "well known" trajectory?

Interesting... hmmscratching
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1274009

The close approach distance is still 17,000 miles. CNN fucked it up. CNN is not NASA.
astrobanner2
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02/09/2013 09:51 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Where does it now say "14,000" miles? The link you provided says 28,000 kilometers which is still 17,000 miles.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23834215


They don't. OP thinks CNN is an authoritative source on the close approach distance.
astrobanner2
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02/09/2013 09:52 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
ET will block asteroid impacts
 Quoting: Skuzzlebutt


Yep just like they did for the Dinosaurs
One Tequila!
Two Tequila!
Three Tequila, ...... Floor!
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:54 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Interesting time for this movie to come out......

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02/09/2013 09:55 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"


Art imitates life...
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:55 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Ok, my question is: which distance is the critical one when Earth can pull in this sweetie? lol
1o ooo Miles? 5ooo Miles?

Please answer.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 09:55 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
It might not hit this year, but doesn't this throw all future calculations out the window?
Citratox

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02/09/2013 09:57 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Was enjoying this thread untill dr.astro showed up. I still think theres a chance this thing causes some disturbances at least.
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02/09/2013 09:59 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Ok, my question is: which distance is the critical one when Earth can pull in this sweetie? lol
1o ooo Miles? 5ooo Miles?

Please answer.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26985611


0 miles (actually just a few dozen above that it would probably explode in the atmosphere). Earth's gravity is already accounted for. You're welcome.
astrobanner2
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02/09/2013 09:59 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Good morning, Professor! Why is it that NASA persists in broadcasting "Astrometry URGENTLY Needed" on their "Latest Update 8 February 2013" at [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]
IF in fact all the astrometry we earthlings will ever need has just been presented by you (and AstroDoggie; Hey, Bud!") ???? Is that your video under a different Nom de Plume?? Merci bien, Monsieur le Professeur
yoda
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Was enjoying this thread untill dr.astro showed up. I still think theres a chance this thing causes some disturbances at least.
 Quoting: Citratox


Yes, I tend to have that effect on false space doom.
astrobanner2
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Good morning, Professor! Why is it that NASA persists in broadcasting "Astrometry URGENTLY Needed" on their "Latest Update 8 February 2013" at [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]
IF in fact all the astrometry we earthlings will ever need has just been presented by you (and AstroDoggie; Hey, Bud!") ???? Is that your video under a different Nom de Plume?? Merci bien, Monsieur le Professeur
yoda
 Quoting: Kimpy2 20290901

Pop quiz, when was the latest astrometry from that I used in the video? Close approaches are always an important time to collect astrometry.
astrobanner2
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02/09/2013 10:04 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Prepare for impact.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546575


Hahahah.. I love it..
Widespread Panic

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02/09/2013 10:07 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Funny how they keep revising that number daily.
"Big wooly mammoth gonna wear my coat in the middle of the summertime"
Citratox

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I read that this comet can be the type that is made of a certain substance that has such an effect that it is sucked in my earth and becomes a sun guided missle. Something like that.
Kimpy2 (OP)
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02/09/2013 10:16 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Where does it now say "14,000" miles? The link you provided says 28,000 kilometers which is still 17,000 miles.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23834215


You're right. I just checked the CNN video link and that was uploaded 1/3/13; however, the astrometry video just posted by the esteemed Dr. Astro clearly shows the approach is farther inside the geosynchronous orbit, with the narrator saying that there's even more clearance between 2012 DA14 and our satellites/space junk toroid...BUT INSIDE, BETWEEN EARTH AND OUR TACKY TOROID. So it seems Dr. Astro has confirmed for all of us a considerably tighter square dance maneuver with this considerable object. Tunguska asteroid was ~60 m, exploded above the earth (quite close), yet flattened 800 sq. mi. of Siberia's forests. This one is ~50 m (as of 8Feb2013 per NASA Web site posted above). We have 6 days to go.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 10:19 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Where does it now say "14,000" miles? The link you provided says 28,000 kilometers which is still 17,000 miles.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23834215


You're right. I just checked the CNN video link and that was uploaded 1/3/13; however, the astrometry video just posted by the esteemed Dr. Astro clearly shows the approach is farther inside the geosynchronous orbit, with the narrator saying that there's even more clearance between 2012 DA14 and our satellites/space junk toroid...BUT INSIDE, BETWEEN EARTH AND OUR TACKY TOROID. So it seems Dr. Astro has confirmed for all of us a considerably tighter square dance maneuver with this considerable object. Tunguska asteroid was ~60 m, exploded above the earth (quite close), yet flattened 800 sq. mi. of Siberia's forests. This one is ~50 m (as of 8Feb2013 per NASA Web site posted above). We have 6 days to go.
 Quoting: Kimpy2 20290901


50 meters "within a factor of two" which means that it might be anywhere from 25 to 100 meters.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 10:22 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Dr Astro, what are the odds of an 8+ quake just before, during or after fly by of earth?
Kimpy2 (OP)
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02/09/2013 10:22 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I read that this comet can be the type that is made of a certain substance that has such an effect that it is sucked in my earth and becomes a sun guided missle. Something like that.
 Quoting: Citratox


Is this what you're seeking?

"Orbit Changers.

In 1902 Ivan Yarkovsky wrote that solar heating of an object in space would cause it to experience a force leading to large long term effects in the orbits of asteroids.

The Yarkovsky effect can turn many asteroids into sun guided missiles targeting earth.

Blogs.Redorbit.com/is-an-asteroid-collision-inevitable"
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33807380
Citratox

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02/09/2013 10:22 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Was enjoying this thread untill dr.astro showed up. I still think theres a chance this thing causes some disturbances at least.
 Quoting: Citratox


Yes, I tend to have that effect on false space doom.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Doc i know you are very popular here, and you have loads of knowledge about all things astronomy. My problem is that i think you are a stuborn know it all. (No-offence) Just the fact that you think you "know" what is going to happen all of the time. I believe that these asteroids and comets and everything out of this world is so unpredictable and the science that you use to make all of your debunking predictings is just as bogus as some of these far out claims. The science that you use and nasa also uses is NOT perfect and they're are still many many unknown factors that we dont even have the technology to even think about being able to "really" track this thing. Thank you for your info but im still putting this into the well see catagory. I like a little excitement :)
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 10:24 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Astro. I love your posts but we both know a real impacting threat would not be told to the public. It is a real policy, you know it.

Knowing that, data would need to be scrubbed as well.


Though, resting firmly in reality, the chances of this rock being a hidden Real threat is quite low, very very low.


But when certain oddities arise, like a 99.999% chance of miss for a rock coming closer then ever......


What gets me is the speed this rock passes us. VERY slow cause it drifts in orbit next to us.

If anything, even if it hit at 90 degrees impact. the damage would be low.

Maybe we can have it hit New Orleans and make that place above sea level with all that rock.
Citratox

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02/09/2013 10:24 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I read that this comet can be the type that is made of a certain substance that has such an effect that it is sucked in my earth and becomes a sun guided missle. Something like that.
 Quoting: Citratox


Is this what you're seeking?

"Orbit Changers.

In 1902 Ivan Yarkovsky wrote that solar heating of an object in space would cause it to experience a force leading to large long term effects in the orbits of asteroids.

The Yarkovsky effect can turn many asteroids into sun guided missiles targeting earth.

Blogs.Redorbit.com/is-an-asteroid-collision-inevitable"
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33807380
 Quoting: Kimpy2 20290901


Exactly! Thanks for finding that i was looking also!
That right there changes the whole entire game id say
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 10:24 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Was enjoying this thread untill dr.astro showed up. I still think theres a chance this thing causes some disturbances at least.
 Quoting: Citratox


Yes, I tend to have that effect on false space doom.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Doc i know you are very popular here, and you have loads of knowledge about all things astronomy. My problem is that i think you are a stuborn know it all. (No-offence) Just the fact that you think you "know" what is going to happen all of the time. I believe that these asteroids and comets and everything out of this world is so unpredictable and the science that you use to make all of your debunking predictings is just as bogus as some of these far out claims. The science that you use and nasa also uses is NOT perfect and they're are still many many unknown factors that we dont even have the technology to even think about being able to "really" track this thing. Thank you for your info but im still putting this into the well see catagory. I like a little excitement :)
 Quoting: Citratox


I agree with the above poster minus the spelling errors...
zacksavage
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02/09/2013 10:25 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Urgent.

17,000 - 3000= 14000

Hm,...I see


Z
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.

--- Albert Einstein
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/09/2013 10:30 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Where does it now say "14,000" miles? The link you provided says 28,000 kilometers which is still 17,000 miles.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23834215


You're right. I just checked the CNN video link and that was uploaded 1/3/13; however, the astrometry video just posted by the esteemed Dr. Astro clearly shows the approach is farther inside the geosynchronous orbit, with the narrator saying that there's even more clearance between 2012 DA14 and our satellites/space junk toroid...BUT INSIDE, BETWEEN EARTH AND OUR TACKY TOROID. So it seems Dr. Astro has confirmed for all of us a considerably tighter square dance maneuver with this considerable object.
 Quoting: Kimpy2 20290901


My video is in agreement with the official orbit and data of this object. According to my own calculations from that uncertainty plot, the close approach distance should be about 17,205 miles from the surface.
astrobanner2
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Was enjoying this thread untill dr.astro showed up. I still think theres a chance this thing causes some disturbances at least.
 Quoting: Citratox


Yes, I tend to have that effect on false space doom.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Doc i know you are very popular here, and you have loads of knowledge about all things astronomy. My problem is that i think you are a stuborn know it all. (No-offence) Just the fact that you think you "know" what is going to happen all of the time. I believe that these asteroids and comets and everything out of this world is so unpredictable and the science that you use to make all of your debunking predictings is just as bogus as some of these far out claims.
 Quoting: Citratox

No, it's nothing at all like the bogus far out claims. The orbit of this asteroid is known to a precision far greater than that needed to rule out the possibility of impact. You believe they're "unpredictable" in their motion, but I know from first hand experience that they are not.
The science that you use and nasa also uses is NOT perfect and they're are still many many unknown factors that we dont even have the technology to even think about being able to "really" track this thing.
 Quoting: citratox

Wrong. We have the technology to "really" track this thing. The orbit is known. I don't give a damn what names you call me for stating it as such. I will laugh in the faces of my detractors when this asteroid passes us by EXACTLY as predicted. I will track it myself and compare where it actually went to where it was predicted to go, and when I do that and show that it followed my predictions exactly, I will count how many people admit they were totally wrong. I expect that number will probably be close to 0.
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