Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed" | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31036137 United States 02/09/2013 08:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter. [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov] |
Kimpy2 (OP) User ID: 20290901 United States 02/09/2013 09:17 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically Quoting: --Voltaic-- during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter. [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov] The point is, closest approach has now dropped 3,000 mi. (from 17,000 mi. to 14,000 mi. OVERNIGHT, and we have 6 days to go. Look at the astonishing, intensifying graph sequences on Children of the Atom thread this a.m. from Meteorscan.com (I.e. Meteor Detection and Radio Astronomy. You must study Children of the Atom's screenshots he has posted, because the site is constantly updating, as you know. I'm watching COTA threads through the rest of this harrowing Velakovskian moment in all our lives! [link to m.youtube.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1546575 United Kingdom 02/09/2013 09:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31036137 United States 02/09/2013 09:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying. I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed. I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter. I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar. 99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance. Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any? Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 26368049 United States 02/09/2013 09:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Kimpy2 (OP) User ID: 20290901 United States 02/09/2013 09:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically Quoting: --Voltaic-- during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter. [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov] The point is, closest approach has now dropped 3,000 mi. (from 17,000 mi. to 14,000 mi. OVERNIGHT, and we have 6 days to go. Look at the astonishing, intensifying graph sequences on Children of the Atom thread this a.m. from Meteorscan.com (I.e. Meteor Detection and Radio Astronomy. You must study Children of the Atom's screenshots he has posted, because the site is constantly updating, as you know. I'm watching COTA threads through the rest of this harrowing Velakovskian moment in all our lives! [link to m.youtube.com] Velikovskian (excuse my misspelling) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 32213631 Ireland 02/09/2013 09:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | as i've explained in the other thread already, even if it impacts, it's going to have the force of a small nuclear weapon. unless it lands on a city, it won't have much effect relatively speaking, although people will still die. if it hits the ocean the wave will be small. ~100k metric tons at ~4000km/h impact is only a few dozen kilotons at most. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33792504 United Kingdom 02/09/2013 09:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
pepe3797 User ID: 34004930 Peru 02/09/2013 09:25 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 8426866 United States 02/09/2013 09:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Skuzzlebutt User ID: 33812862 United Kingdom 02/09/2013 09:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | COMMANDING OFFICER: We estimate it has a diameter of over five hundred and fifty kilometers and a mass roughly one fourth the size of our moon. GENERAL GREY: A meteor? SECOND OFFICER: No Sir. Definitely not. GENERAL GREY: How do you know? SECOND OFFICER: Well, er... it's slowing down. GENERAL GREY: It's doing what? SECOND OFFICER: It's... slowing down, Sir. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1274009 Netherlands 02/09/2013 09:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1274009 Netherlands 02/09/2013 09:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | COMMANDING OFFICER: We estimate it has a diameter of over five hundred and fifty kilometers and a mass roughly one fourth the size of our moon. Quoting: Skuzzlebutt GENERAL GREY: A meteor? SECOND OFFICER: No Sir. Definitely not. GENERAL GREY: How do you know? SECOND OFFICER: Well, er... it's slowing down. GENERAL GREY: It's doing what? SECOND OFFICER: It's... slowing down, Sir. The 4400 ? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31036137 United States 02/09/2013 09:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 14,000 miles is basically a hairs width in astronomical terms. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546575 I fully do not believe that they have accurate enough data to pin it down 100% to such a degree. Prepare for impact. You mean wait for impact. No way to prepare. Get panic sex partner a worked up. Going out with a bang! |
Skuzzlebutt User ID: 33812862 United Kingdom 02/09/2013 09:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
phoenixe User ID: 33933790 Germany 02/09/2013 09:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | as i have no time to study it myself - does anyone know where it is going to pass as in "in which countries i can see it" ? would be good to know where it comes down if ;) |
Crazy Harriet User ID: 16501830 United States 02/09/2013 09:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | How big is it? (nobody can read everything on the internet) This is getting interesting. Thanks, OP! "I would rather take a political risk in pursuit of peace, than risk peace in pursuit of politics." - Donald Trump |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 25801142 United States 02/09/2013 09:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 25801142 United States 02/09/2013 09:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33998610 United States 02/09/2013 09:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 14,000 miles is basically a hairs width in astronomical terms. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1546575 I fully do not believe that they have accurate enough data to pin it down 100% to such a degree. Prepare for impact. 14,000 miles travelling at 17,000 mph. That's a bullet, and if they're off at all, it's gonna hit us right in the noggin. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33792504 United Kingdom 02/09/2013 09:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31036137 United States 02/09/2013 09:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Probably would hit southern hemisphere [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] Chances are really great it would hit water. Southern hemisphere is 80% water. |
Kimpy2 (OP) User ID: 20290901 United States 02/09/2013 09:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | as i have no time to study it myself - does anyone know where it is going to pass as in "in which countries i can see it" ? Quoting: phoenixe would be good to know where it comes down if ;) NASA says it will be visible from Asia with proper optics and precise coordinates (unless it comes closer; at that point, throw away your binocs and KYSA Buh-bye!) |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 33360181 United States 02/09/2013 09:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying. Quoting: --Voltaic-- I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed. I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter. I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar. 99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance. Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any? Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed. There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever. We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1274009 Netherlands 02/09/2013 09:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
SIL\/ER User ID: 13849641 United States 02/09/2013 09:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This thread title (and other similar ones lately) reminded me of a really good sci-fi book I read some years ago, Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. Basically there's a comet (not an asteroid, I know, but go with it) headed toward Earth, NASA and everyone else keeps insisting it won't hit Earth, but the data they get as it gets closer keeps showing smaller and smaller distances. They never do say publicly that it will hit, even after they know without much doubt that it will. And of course, chaos ensues. Very realistically done, also - great book. Wouldn't want to be here if the damn thing hit Earth though. This asteroid wouldn't be as bad, as long as you're far enough away from it. Or well, maybe it would be. But still, 14,000 miles is still a long distance (as everyone kept saying in aforementioned book... *ahem*). It's a little more than the diameter of the Earth, I think. |
Skuzzlebutt User ID: 33812862 United Kingdom 02/09/2013 09:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1274009 Netherlands 02/09/2013 09:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying. Quoting: --Voltaic-- I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed. I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter. I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar. 99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance. Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any? Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed. There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever. We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact. So, a three thousand mile adjustment is not significant at all? It reaffirms their confidence of its "well known" trajectory? Interesting... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33998610 United States 02/09/2013 09:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying. Quoting: --Voltaic-- I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed. I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter. I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar. 99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance. Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any? Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed. There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever. We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact. Remember when that Mars probe missed the planet because they forgot to convert from miles to km? Yeah. NASA if funny! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34004556 Germany 02/09/2013 09:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | what sort of damage would a rock of this size do? Quoting: Skuzzlebutt because 50meters is absolutely microscopic in terms of the universe Here you go: Earth impact calculator [link to impact.ese.ic.ac.uk] You do the math... But DA14 isn't a threat at all. 14,000 miles is still a big distance. The object is merely 50 m big. |