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Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"

 
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/09/2013 10:35 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Was enjoying this thread untill dr.astro showed up. I still think theres a chance this thing causes some disturbances at least.
 Quoting: Citratox


Yes, I tend to have that effect on false space doom.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Doc i know you are very popular here, and you have loads of knowledge about all things astronomy. My problem is that i think you are a stuborn know it all. (No-offence) Just the fact that you think you "know" what is going to happen all of the time. I believe that these asteroids and comets and everything out of this world is so unpredictable and the science that you use to make all of your debunking predictings is just as bogus as some of these far out claims. The science that you use and nasa also uses is NOT perfect and they're are still many many unknown factors that we dont even have the technology to even think about being able to "really" track this thing. Thank you for your info but im still putting this into the well see catagory. I like a little excitement :)
 Quoting: Citratox


I agree with the above poster minus the spelling errors...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27551020

Then I will also await an apology from you when this asteroid follows my predictions exactly.
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02/09/2013 10:36 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Just curious, are you also saying there is 0 probability of a Tunguska event ?
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/09/2013 10:42 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Just curious, are you also saying there is 0 probability of a Tunguska event ?
 Quoting: TS66


For this asteroid? Yes, that's what I'm saying.
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02/09/2013 10:47 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
COMMANDING OFFICER: We estimate it has a diameter of over five hundred and fifty kilometers and a mass roughly one fourth the size of our moon.

GENERAL GREY: A meteor?

SECOND OFFICER: No Sir. Definitely not.

GENERAL GREY: How do you know?

SECOND OFFICER: Well, er... it's slowing down.

GENERAL GREY: It's doing what?

SECOND OFFICER: It's... slowing down, Sir.
 Quoting: Skuzzlebutt


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Ok, my question is: which distance is the critical one when Earth can pull in this sweetie? lol
1o ooo Miles? 5ooo Miles?

Please answer.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26985611


0 miles (actually just a few dozen above that it would probably explode in the atmosphere). Earth's gravity is already accounted for. You're welcome.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Why do you do this?
I just think it's interesting, the sheer number of posts, the extreme effort you go to... wow! You are devoted to straightening people out.
Is this your calling?
Do you feel like maybe you are wasting your life standing in the way of people's opinions?
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/09/2013 10:48 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Ok, my question is: which distance is the critical one when Earth can pull in this sweetie? lol
1o ooo Miles? 5ooo Miles?

Please answer.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26985611


0 miles (actually just a few dozen above that it would probably explode in the atmosphere). Earth's gravity is already accounted for. You're welcome.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Why do you do this?
I just think it's interesting, the sheer number of posts, the extreme effort you go to... wow! You are devoted to straightening people out.
Is this your calling?
Do you feel like maybe you are wasting your life standing in the way of people's opinions?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8470135


I stand in the way of false astronomical doom. I think it's interesting that you don't give a damn about the truth. I think it's interesting that you get all butthurt when someone who actually knows what the hell he's talking about comes on here and explains the truth.
astrobanner2
Saddletramp

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02/09/2013 10:49 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Even if it doesn't hit us, it's liable to fuck up the orbit of some satellites, and if it hits one, all bets are off as to where it goes from there...

I can see it already, this will be another excuse for my Satellite Internet provider to have service interruptions...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

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goterdid

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02/09/2013 10:52 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
After reading all this I was really concerned so I called my uncle. He said not to worry, it won't get closer than 17,000 miles. He said HAARP would generate a signal that it would skip along like a rock on water at that distance and therefore bypass earth.
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 10:52 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
as i've explained in the other thread already, even if it impacts, it's going to have the force of a small nuclear weapon. unless it lands on a city, it won't have much effect relatively speaking, although people will still die. if it hits the ocean the wave will be small. ~100k metric tons at ~4000km/h impact is only a few dozen kilotons at most.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32213631


clappa
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02/09/2013 10:53 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I hear ya, I was just posting what NASA was saying.

I found the confidence of zero impact strange in combination with the urgency of astrometry needed.


I remember saying days ago, NASA's statement of a 99.999% chance of impact did not reflect such a close encounter.

I would expect 99.98122% or 98.9999% or 99.909912% chance of miss, but thats how you catch a liar.

99.99999% was ordered to be published to hide the real impact chance.

Which, according to logic at this point, should have decreased a little. If it was 99.999% and now it scoots inwards, has that number changed any?

Probably not, which backs up my belief of disinformation being pushed.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


There is NO chance of impact on this encounter. None whatsoever.

We already have new astrometry prior to the encounter, and now the uncertainty region is incredibly tight. It does not overlap earth at all, not even close, which is why there is NO chance of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So, a three thousand mile adjustment is not significant at all?
It reaffirms their confidence of its "well known" trajectory?

Interesting... hmmscratching
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1274009

The close approach distance is still 17,000 miles. CNN fucked it up. CNN is not NASA.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Oh, okay... hf
Citratox

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02/09/2013 10:55 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Wrong. We have the technology to "really" track this thing. The orbit is known. I don't give a damn what names you call me for stating it as such. I will laugh in the faces of my detractors when this asteroid passes us by EXACTLY as predicted. I will track it myself and compare where it actually went to where it was predicted to go, and when I do that and show that it followed my predictions exactly, I will count how many people admit they were totally wrong. I expect that number will probably be close to 0.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro

Ok Doc. I get where your coming from. I am simply stating that "your technology" to track this thing is just modern. This "thing" headed our way is pushing boundries id say of our current technologies. Tell me, do you know all of the absolute facts about 2012 da14's path and what it is made of and how the guts of this thing effect its "path"? No, you dont.

Last Edited by Citra on 02/09/2013 10:59 AM
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zacksavage

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02/09/2013 10:56 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Even if it doesn't hit us, it's liable to fuck up the orbit of some satellites, and if it hits one, all bets are off as to where it goes from there...

I can see it already, this will be another excuse for my Satellite Internet provider to have service interruptions...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


I have heard that this is the closest approach of an object this size that the public has been allowed to know about beforehand, is this true?



Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Citratox

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02/09/2013 10:57 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Ok, my question is: which distance is the critical one when Earth can pull in this sweetie? lol
1o ooo Miles? 5ooo Miles?

Please answer.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26985611


0 miles (actually just a few dozen above that it would probably explode in the atmosphere). Earth's gravity is already accounted for. You're welcome.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Why do you do this?
I just think it's interesting, the sheer number of posts, the extreme effort you go to... wow! You are devoted to straightening people out.
Is this your calling?
Do you feel like maybe you are wasting your life standing in the way of people's opinions?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8470135


This 5a
Truth is light, light is truth
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 11:01 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
The uncertainties in plane-of-sky position, Doppler frequency, and time delay will grow dramatically
during the approach, but even so, this object cannot impact Earth during this encounter.

[link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


Isn't possible that Earth may suck the asteroid in, given it is passing WITHIN its powerful EM field?

Who else has considered this very logical idea?
Trinitarian

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02/09/2013 11:01 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I personally appreciate the good science and the good math of our resident astronomer here.

When it comes to math, there's no arguing against specific calculations. Calculations don't lie and they are not based upon somebody's opinion. People may continue to attack Astromut but the truth of the matter is that they are attacking solid math and physics just because it doesn't line up to their opinions! Therefore if you are going to argue against Astromut, show us your math and calculations because otherwise your opinions amount to silly fantasies.

Thanks for your service Astromut!
Ambilac

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02/09/2013 11:01 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
To throw my few cents in on the table...as many of you 'old uns' realise I only drop in on occasions, this being one of them!
The request for data by NASA while considered 'normal' in the astro world (collating data etc) as we all know NASA - Never A Straight Answer - works on current, known and accepted research and data provided by certain departments - they never have the FULL data to hand, hence the 'urgent' request -..e.g. basically they know diddly squat when it comes to outer space artefacts..

Personally - having researched for many years since the 1990's with 'known science-based' colleagues and people like Kent Steadman and others, it was our conclusion that NASA and other organisations were working on assumed 'known' 'facts' and not all of them corerct as they later published..
For e.g. they never take into account any 'external influences' - and in the case of the upcoming DA14 fly by my main concern is the effects of Solar activity...the distance and trajectory of this mama next week may easily be disrupted by any flow or disruption of electro magnetic storms/effects..
I could go on...but there is enough 'evidence' to demonstrate that as they say 'anything could happen in the next half-hour'...
I will be watching this mama closely....no 'one' person or organisation can be arrogant enought to say without a shadow of doubt that 'X' or 'Y' may happen, as that 'one' will never have all the full facts to hand to calculate the outcome....let alone taking into account any other 'external' forces outside (or inside) our sol system..

Cutting a long story very short -if it were not so serious... 'beam me up Scotty' -
Lastly - NASA will never let on to the public if there was any chance of a possible 'hit' ....(Panic is a situation they would not be able to cope with ). may be one of the reasons they send out that NASA staff and family 'Be Prepared' Video about a year or so ago!!?
'Just sayin' ....
www.ambilacuk.com/safesurvival
zacksavage

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02/09/2013 11:03 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I personally appreciate the good science and the good math of our resident astronomer here.

When it comes to math, there's no arguing against specific calculations. Calculations don't lie and they are not based upon somebody's opinion. People may continue to attack Astromut but the truth of the matter is that they are attacking solid math and physics just because it doesn't line up to their opinions! Therefore if you are going to argue against Astromut, show us your math and calculations because otherwise your opinions amount to silly fantasies.

Thanks for your service Astromut!
 Quoting: Trinitarian


Math is not God.

Neither is Astro.

He does have quite an impressive track record though.


Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 02/09/2013 11:03 AM
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 11:03 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Ok, my question is: which distance is the critical one when Earth can pull in this sweetie? lol
1o ooo Miles? 5ooo Miles?

Please answer.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26985611


0 miles (actually just a few dozen above that it would probably explode in the atmosphere). Earth's gravity is already accounted for. You're welcome.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


OK, thanks Astro!

I just hoped for a big 2 Megaton boom, lol.
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02/09/2013 11:05 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
whatever
Kristina

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02/09/2013 11:07 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
bump I think this needs to be pinned...
DOOM better not interrupt my Walking Dead!!
Ambilac

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02/09/2013 11:07 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
PS - just to comment to a post added above while I was typing this...mathematics does not lie you are correct 'Assuming' you had the correct figures in the first place - recall the Kilometres/miles mistake for instance regarding the Mars mission...
If this mama gets pulled in by our earth's gravitationsl pull, the speed will double and so too will its effect..
The Russian incident in the early 1900's was they say the result of an 'air burst' we can only imagine what would occur if a similar object would impact terra firma, or even in/over water...
www.ambilacuk.com/safesurvival
zacksavage

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02/09/2013 11:08 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
To throw my few cents in on the table...as many of you 'old uns' realise I only drop in on occasions, this being one of them!
The request for data by NASA while considered 'normal' in the astro world (collating data etc) as we all know NASA - Never A Straight Answer - works on current, known and accepted research and data provided by certain departments - they never have the FULL data to hand, hence the 'urgent' request -..e.g. basically they know diddly squat when it comes to outer space artefacts..

Personally - having researched for many years since the 1990's with 'known science-based' colleagues and people like Kent Steadman and others, it was our conclusion that NASA and other organisations were working on assumed 'known' 'facts' and not all of them corerct as they later published..
For e.g. they never take into account any 'external influences' - and in the case of the upcoming DA14 fly by my main concern is the effects of Solar activity...the distance and trajectory of this mama next week may easily be disrupted by any flow or disruption of electro magnetic storms/effects..
I could go on...but there is enough 'evidence' to demonstrate that as they say 'anything could happen in the next half-hour'...
I will be watching this mama closely....no 'one' person or organisation can be arrogant enought to say without a shadow of doubt that 'X' or 'Y' may happen, as that 'one' will never have all the full facts to hand to calculate the outcome....let alone taking into account any other 'external' forces outside (or inside) our sol system..

Cutting a long story very short -if it were not so serious... 'beam me up Scotty' -
Lastly - NASA will never let on to the public if there was any chance of a possible 'hit' ....(Panic is a situation they would not be able to cope with ). may be one of the reasons they send out that NASA staff and family 'Be Prepared' Video about a year or so ago!!?
'Just sayin' ....
 Quoting: Ambilac

Hey,...I remember hearing you on the old Alex Merclinger? show years ago.

Anyway, cool to see you still out and about.



Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
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02/09/2013 11:09 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Even if it doesn't hit us, it's liable to fuck up the orbit of some satellites, and if it hits one, all bets are off as to where it goes from there...

I can see it already, this will be another excuse for my Satellite Internet provider to have service interruptions...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


I have heard that this is the closest approach of an object this size that the public has been allowed to know about beforehand, is this true?



Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


According to NASA yes. It is the biggest and closest observable asteroid in modern time.

"Nevertheless, the flyby will provide a unique opportunity for researchers to study a near-Earth object up close. Here are the facts about the safe flyby of Earth of asteroid 2012 DA14 -- a record close approach for a known object of this size. "

[link to www.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 11:10 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Prepare for impact.
Citratox

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02/09/2013 11:10 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
I personally appreciate the good science and the good math of our resident astronomer here.

When it comes to math, there's no arguing against specific calculations. Calculations don't lie and they are not based upon somebody's opinion. People may continue to attack Astromut but the truth of the matter is that they are attacking solid math and physics just because it doesn't line up to their opinions! Therefore if you are going to argue against Astromut, show us your math and calculations because otherwise your opinions amount to silly fantasies.

Thanks for your service Astromut!
 Quoting: Trinitarian


Your right bud, but there IS something to say for where these "specific calculations" come from, and also wether there are really even enough of these "specific calculations" to form solid evidence, like your beloved doctor does constantly.

Last Edited by Citra on 02/09/2013 11:23 AM
Truth is light, light is truth
Kimpy2 (OP)
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02/09/2013 11:11 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Where does it now say "14,000" miles? The link you provided says 28,000 kilometers which is still 17,000 miles.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23834215


You're right. I just checked the CNN video link and that was uploaded 1/3/13; however, the astrometry video just posted by the esteemed Dr. Astro clearly shows the approach is farther inside the geosynchronous orbit, with the narrator saying that there's even more clearance between 2012 DA14 and our satellites/space junk toroid...BUT INSIDE, BETWEEN EARTH AND OUR TACKY TOROID. So it seems Dr. Astro has confirmed for all of us a considerably tighter square dance maneuver with this considerable object.
 Quoting: Kimpy2 20290901


My video is in agreement with the official orbit and data of this object. According to my own calculations from that uncertainty plot, the close approach distance should be about 17,205 miles from the surface.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro

Uh, uh, uhhhhhhhhhhh!
The official NASA claims have been consistently stating the possibility of collision with an orbiting satellite or flotsam, YET you in your video of today claim, based on the latest astrometry, that there's an even greater distance between 2012 DA-14 and geosynchronous orbit thus even less chance of a collision; AND YET you now claim an increase in distance from the earth of 205 miles which should place 2012 DA-14 even closer to geosynchronous orbit and a potential collision. Sorry, your claims don't add up. I watched your entire video this morning. Huge contradictions.
Why don't you debunk the huge signals (screenshots) posted today by Children of the Atom? I'd love to read you debunking screenshots from Meteorscan.com. They're looking pretty darned potent the farther down you look at what COTA has captured and posted in their thread today.
yoda
Ambilac

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02/09/2013 11:11 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Thanks Zack - yep stilla round 'lurking' LOL - but still involved when needed etc
Yes Alex show, that was a close one..LOL - also on coast 2 coast, jeff rense etc etc... good ol days! fond memories
www.ambilacuk.com/safesurvival
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 11:13 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
OK guys- here is my only question- assuming this asteroid does strike earth, if it hits the Atlantic ocean, will it cause a tsunami to reach above 50 feet and will thousands be killed along the East Coast?

Reason for question---

1. Remote viewers say Washington DC under water?
2. Caskets for thousands in Louisiana by train?
3. Reason for ammunition to govt services if they are cutoff from Washington DC
4. Obama takes sudden trip to Denver next week?
5. Lastly, two snowstorms next week will take peoples minds off the issue
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 11:15 AM
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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Why did this thing just inch 3000 miles closer OVERNIGHT? abomb
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/09/2013 11:16 AM

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Re: Asteroid approach shrank to 14,000 miles this a.m. + NASA says "Astrometry is URGENTLY Needed"
Wrong. We have the technology to "really" track this thing. The orbit is known. I don't give a damn what names you call me for stating it as such. I will laugh in the faces of my detractors when this asteroid passes us by EXACTLY as predicted. I will track it myself and compare where it actually went to where it was predicted to go, and when I do that and show that it followed my predictions exactly, I will count how many people admit they were totally wrong. I expect that number will probably be close to 0.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro

Ok Doc. I get where your coming from. I am simply stating that "your technology" to track this thing is just modern. This "thing" headed our way is pushing boundries id say of our current technologies.
 Quoting: Citratox

I completely disagree with that. This asteroid's orbit is very easily knowable with current technology. If I can figure it out for myself without NASA's help at all, then it's nowhere near the boundaries of our technology.
Tell me, do you know all of the absolute facts about 2012 da14's path and what it is made of and how the guts of this thing effect its "path"? No, you dont.
 Quoting: Citratox

The guts of this thing are irrelevant to its path. Objects fall at a constant rate in a given gravity well regardless of what they're made of. Basic physics.
astrobanner2





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