MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 110755Z - 110930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHERN AL OVERNIGHT. REPETITIVE/LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE REMAINED PERSISTENT NEAR/IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF AN WSW-ENE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MS/AL...THAT ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR HATTIESBURG MS
INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL. A RECENT RENEWED UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WHICH IS
LIKELY BEING AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/WARM ADVECTION. EVEN
WHILE THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
PRIOR OUTFLOW...CONTINUED CONGEALING OF UPDRAFTS AND STRONG/NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW MAY PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZED/FORWARD
PROPAGATING LINEAR STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL. AT LEAST LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN A
CONCERN.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/11/2013