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932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 34458887
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02/15/2013 05:06 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
The Boston NWS says it has low confidence with the forecast for nor'easter this weekend because of the big spread of the models.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONGER OCEAN STORM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF IT LIKELY NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS
THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&


.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SIGNIFICANT MODELS SPREAD. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OUT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THE MAIN ISSUE THAT NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IS HOW QUICKLY THIS
OCCURS AND WHERE IT HAPPENS. THE GFS MODELS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN QUICKLY BOMBING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES TO THE COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE COLD CONVEYER BELT SLAMMING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH HEAVY SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE IT DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE
HAS A TRACK FURTHER EAST.

ALL IN ALL...GIVEN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
GFS TOOK THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
FEEL THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AS ONE WORKS EAST TOWARDS THE COAST.
WE DO THINK THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS AND/OR
STRONG WINDS/VERY POOR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE STORM
TRACKS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS
REGION. IN ADDITION...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING STRONG WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO THIS
REGION. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TECHNICALLY FALLS BELOW
CRITERIA...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE IS A PERIOD OF NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE WET IN THIS REGION SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS/POWER OUTAGES WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. WE FELT ALL THESE CONDITIONS
WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD
AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET A BIT LONGER WITH SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BOMB OUT. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IF THE STORM TRENDS FURTHER
WEST AND BOMBS OUT EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXPAND WINTER STORM WATCHES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FURTHER EAST. IF THE TREND IS FURTHER
EAST...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE LEFT WITH AN INCH OR TWO.
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 34458887
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02/15/2013 05:09 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 18z advertises a narrow strip of a couple inches of snow for Philly, NYC, into New England thru late Saturday. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 05:10 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
FOCUS OF ATTENTION IS ON EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS FORCED BY THE
160+ KT SUB TROPICAL JET LEFT FRONT QUAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED
ON EXTENSIVE ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND COLLABORATION WITHIN
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INCLUDING 6 COASTAL WFO`S AND HPC
WWD...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A NEAR MISS FOR SIGNIFICANT
PCPN SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR FCST AREA.

HAVE SEEN 12Z ECMWF...15Z SREF...12Z GEFS AND 18Z NAM.

THUS...GOING WITH A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT PCPN WHICH WOULD
INCLUDE SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO THE SLIGHT COOLER NAM MOS.
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 05:11 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

As storm #bombs out along E coast to perhaps under 950 mb, winds crank up out of the NW -- hurricane force offshore. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 05:15 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Next storm is a severe weather threat for Ohio Valley into SE early week. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 05:29 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Winter weather advisories now being issued for portions of central North Carolina
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 05:37 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Omaha Radar could be similar tomorrow in NC/VA w/convective type #snow. So it will be a case of the have & have nots: [link to radar.weather.gov] …
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 05:52 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

West coast will see trough after trough (cut-off lows) bring typically ugly weather to e.g. Monterey [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 05:54 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
12z JMA [link to grib2.com] [link to grib2.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18677079
United States
02/15/2013 06:00 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Hey, Luis.....Tom Skilling out of Chicago has some interesting stuff on his FB account for the Chicago area late next week.....
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 34552674
Portugal
02/16/2013 03:14 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Hey, Luis.....Tom Skilling out of Chicago has some interesting stuff on his FB account for the Chicago area late next week.....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18677079


Can you post the link? Thank's!hf
Luisport (OP)

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02/16/2013 03:22 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z shows foot of snow for E. Mass, Boston (?) as explosive low bombs offshore. Sunday snapshot [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/16/2013 03:23 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

We'll see how verify: ECMWF printed out 0.4'' QPF (below 32°F) for Boston MA grid point. GFS 1.2'' (foot snow) [link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14117105
United States
02/16/2013 03:46 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Thanks for the heads up Luis, I am in FT Pierce Florida and really do not want to c any tornado activity though!Have a good day!

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