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932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 03:53 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
WNYT NewsChannel 13‏@WNYT

iNWS Alert - New event. Winter Weather Advisory from 2/11/2013 4:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST for Berkshire County,... [link to tmblr.co]

39 sAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

More blizzard snow totals: 9.5" at Aberdeen, S.D.; 16.5" near Webster, S.D.

39 sWNYT NewsChannel 13‏@WNYT

iNWS Alert - New event. Winter Weather Advisory from 2/11/2013 4:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST for Montgomery... [link to tmblr.co]

54 sNWS New York NY‏@NWSNewYorkNY

Freezing Rain Advisory in effect from 3am to 9am Monday for many counties: [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 03:56 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
HVWX1‏@HudsonValleyWx

Winter Weather Advisory for Ulster,Dutchess,Greene and Columbia Counties for the freezing rain threat.. Other... [link to fb.me]
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 04:05 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Encased in Ice MT @MikeTheiss Incredible !! Cars like Popsicles in ice from freezing sea spray in Nantasket, Mass [link to twitter.com] #Nemo
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 04:15 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
WSJ Greater New York‏@WSJNY

Weather Journal: More Storms Arrive Monday. [link to on.wsj.com]

3 minEric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

NWS: Freezing rain advisories have been posted for much of the tri-state (excluding NYC) for Monday morning. Details: [link to 1.usa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 04:17 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

WRF (NMM-core) 5km a bit slower. Sprawling storm from Dakotas to Gulf coast. [link to twitter.com]

14 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

WRF (ARW-core) 5km showed poss. of bowing line segments entering GA later tonight -- severe winds. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 04:25 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
now for freezing rain... [link to forecast.weather.gov]
amachiavellian

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02/10/2013 04:30 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ugh. We got over 40cm of snow in 24 hours here. Now it's +1°C and they're calling for freezing rain, followed by rain, followed by ... wait for it ... more snow!

I am becoming genuinely concerned for the roof of my addition.
— read for knowledge, not answers.
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 04:36 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
[link to weather.unisys.com] [link to weather.unisys.com] [link to weather.unisys.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 04:51 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Here is a map of the advisories for Freezing Rain and Winter Weather: [link to www.nws.noaa.gov] …
Luisport (OP)

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02/10/2013 05:16 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC

Still many w/o power as night falls RT: @MassEMA 5PM (2/10) outages in MA (rounded): NGRID 47K, NSTAR 161K, Total 208K #MAstorm #Nemo
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 05:44 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
[link to synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 05:46 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
7News‏@7News

Small storm heading in. Mainly rain Boston-south but some wintry mix north/west of town. [link to twitpic.com] via @jreineron7
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 05:47 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
NWS Boston‏@NWSBoston

Winter weather advisories have been extended to include most of E MA and RI. Here's the details... [link to ow.ly] #SNEwx
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 05:48 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 00z now on board with almost 3'' rain for ATL during next 24-hrs. That's just great. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 06:45 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
FOX 25 News Boston‏@fox25news

Nearly 150,000 still without power in Northeast [link to DON'T_USE-THIS] #fox25
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 06:56 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @accumancuso: Wind gust to 48 in Chicago ORD ! #ilwx

1 minFOX CT Weather‏@WeatherCT

Again watch for slick roads if you have to drive. Another storm possible Wed. Eve into Thursday Morning Bigger potential by the weekend.
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 06:57 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
hiding

Last Edited by Luisport on 02/11/2013 06:57 AM
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 06:59 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Saturday, February 9, 2013Pattern Overview From February 9 to February 23
By Andrew at 2:02 PM
This is a discussion of the atmospheric pattern from February 9th through February 23rd.

Our analysis begins with the tropical convection index called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. We currently see the MJO in Phase 1, with the strongest tropical convection occurring in west Africa or into the Indian Ocean.

When the Madden Julian Oscillation is in Phase 1 during the second half of winter into March, cooler temperatures tend to prevail across many areas east of the Front Range, especially prevalent in the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Temperature anomalies can average a few degrees below normal, and this phase is best known for providing the aforementioned regions with the best opportunities for cold outbreaks. We are not seeing that cold trend get too strong at this time, however, because the MJO is very close to the center circle. When the MJO tracks into that center circle, it means convection is too weak for any adverse weather to be inflicted on the nation. In coming days, we will see the MJO rebound back into a modest-strength Phase 1, but then swing around into Phase 2, as the ECMWF model illustrates above. If we look again at the charts on the left, we find temperatures bounce back to relatively normal (but still cool) levels for those east of the Mississippi. A striking difference is the sudden appearance of well below normal temperature anomalies in the Rockies. It is plausible that we could see these below normal temperature anomalies appear as we progress into the next several days. Precipitation wise, while Phase 1 does favor coastal storms as exhibited by above normal anomalies in the Southeast, this wet sector shifts more inland into the southern Ohio Valley during Phase 2. This tells me that we could see storms stay more inland and affect the Ohio Valley more-so than the Northeast. That's not to say coastal storms will be rid of the equation, but they will begin to find a discouragement for such a coastal track. Before long, we are entering a modest Phase 3. This is the last favorable phase before the cold anomalies leave. Phase 3 holds the cold across much of the nation, and precipitation continues to move more inland, now more towards the southern Plains and even into the southern Midwest.

Medium range forecasts for 500 millibar heights by the European model (left) and American model (right) show general agreement in the setting-up of low pressure anomalies across the East US, and high pressure anomalies across the West US. This is a textbook example of a good scenario where to get cold and storms to flow into the East. Depression of heights in the East leads to a suppressed jet stream, which allows cold to flourish in the region. The suppressed jet stream strengthens the subtropical jet stream and provides additional opportunities for coastal storms. Long range forecasts do show this example of storms dropping south from the Pacific Northwest as the two jet streams merge and the storm then heads up the coast. A lack of high pressure over Greenland is a major catch that could put a flaw in this system. Without the high pressure over Greenland, I am hesitant to believe that this scenario will lead to big Nor'easters. While they are indeed possible, the lack of Greenland high pressure could lead to these storms just going out to sea rather than hanging around on the East Coast. This situation will have to be carefully watched before any decisions are made about who gets the storms and who is left out.

A long range concern of mine is the development of an Omega Block in the Bering Sea. An Omega Block is where high pressure sets up in any given area. In response to elevated pressure anomalies, below normal pressure anomalies (low pressure) must set up on both the left and right sides of the original high pressure system, forming the Greek letter Omega. The last time we saw an Omega Block in the Bering Sea, an unfavorable pattern evolved in much of the nation. If this Omega Block is to develop, low pressure on one side of that high pressure could stretch down into the northeast Pacific Ocean and West Coast. Long range model guidance has been hinting at such a scenario, and if it were to evolve, high pressure would make a solid (and likely successful) attempt at establishing itself over much of the nation. The MJO cycling towards Phases 4-5 doesn't help either, as Phase 4 introduces warm temperature anomalies across much of the nation. If this Omega Block were to happen, and the low pressure did develop in the NE Pacific and West Coast, it would probably occur beyond the 20th of February. During this timeframe, the Madden Julian Oscillation would most likely be in Phase 4, which aligns nicely with the Omega Block's attempt at hoisting high pressure and warm temperatures over the nation.

Weekly Prognosis:

February 9 - February 16: Threat for coastal storms remains through the week. Valentine's Day likely to bring Nor'easter. Accumulations flirting with one foot in spots. Warm temperatures and high pressure prevails in West US until end of week.

February 16 - February 23: Persistent low pressure moves out of East US. Pacific pattern begins to turn unfavorable, Madden Julian Oscillation begins cycling through Phases 3 and 4. Cold temperatures early in week are erased by gradual warm up into end of week. Coastal storm threat remains, may be suppressed from unfavorable Pacific pattern.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
 Quoting: Luisport


Croikey!!
hiding
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 07:10 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Rhode Island EMA‏@RhodeIslandEMA

Snow likely before 11am then freezing rain between 11am-12pm. Daytime snow accumulation of less than 1" possible: [link to DON'T_USE_THIS.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 07:26 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
The 6z GFS went completely insane and showed a massive storm hitting the NE next weekend: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] This would be heavy rain for coastal areas and very heavy snow inland.
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 07:27 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
The 6z GFS went completely insane and showed a massive storm hitting the NE next weekend: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] This would be heavy rain for coastal areas and very heavy snow inland.
 Quoting: Luisport


siren2siren2siren2
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 07:38 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
The 6z GFS went completely insane and showed a massive storm hitting the NE next weekend: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] This would be heavy rain for coastal areas and very heavy snow inland.
 Quoting: Luisport


siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Luisport


And one more, here's the UKMET, this would be a pretty major snowstorm for the NE if it verified: [link to meteocentre.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 07:39 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
If the 6z GFS solution panned out than it would be pretty close for sure. Here's the Euro for the same timeframe though, much different: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] Interesting to note the Euro Ensemble run though, much closer: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] And for what it's worth, the CMC actually shows an inside runner with rain for many: [link to meteocentre.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:09 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
7News‏@7News

Models indicate a hyperactive jet stream next 2 weeks.....winter is far from over. #Stormy #SomeRain #SomeSnow via @jreineron7
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:11 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Oh, an unexpected surprise: GFS 00z takes low from 998 mb to 990 mb just offshore in 6-hours. Thursday: [link to twitter.com]

7 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

.@DanielO6_08 GFS 00z is further south with potential for DC snow to mangle Thursday commute. [link to twitter.com]
Ricky Retardo

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02/11/2013 08:16 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
If the 6z GFS solution panned out than it would be pretty close for sure. Here's the Euro for the same timeframe though, much different: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] Interesting to note the Euro Ensemble run though, much closer: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] And for what it's worth, the CMC actually shows an inside runner with rain for many: [link to meteocentre.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Lp, which one is best for us in DC?

hf
Formerly Anita PooporShart & Anderson Pooper.
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:18 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
If the 6z GFS solution panned out than it would be pretty close for sure. Here's the Euro for the same timeframe though, much different: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] Interesting to note the Euro Ensemble run though, much closer: [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] And for what it's worth, the CMC actually shows an inside runner with rain for many: [link to meteocentre.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Lp, which one is best for us in DC?

hf
 Quoting: Ricky Retardo


the worst is the last GFS model
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:21 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
533 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-112300-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
533 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL
RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER CRAFT THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA
FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL
TURN BLUSTERY AND COLDER AFTER THE FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:22 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Snowy Tuesday shaping up for Oklahoma and Texas [link to ow.ly]

1 minNWS Boston‏@NWSBoston

Winter Weather Advsy extended to northeast MA including Boston. Snow mixing with and changing to sleet and freezing rain before just rain.
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:26 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Most stations that are starting as #snow in New England are going quickly over to sleet/freezing rain or all rain: [link to www.intellicast.com] …