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932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:52 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

Radar, ample warning lead time & spotter reports likely saved lives in the Hattiesburg, MS #tornado. Recap: [link to wxch.nl]

1 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

There's a flooding risk from NYC-Boston Monday, with storm drains blocked with snow. [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 08:56 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
....THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR... AUTAUGA COUNTY IN ALABAMA... DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA... LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... PERRY COUNTY IN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST * AT 659 AM CST...RADAR INDICATED THAT THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA SINCE SUNDAY...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MANY SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ELEVATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...AND THE GROUND SATURATED...RUNOFF FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLOODING OF SOME ROADS AND STREETS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE OR NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...MILLBROOK...MILSTEAD...MONT GOMERY... MOSSES...P RATTVILLE...SELMA...TUSKEGEE...VALLEY GRANDE... WETUMPKA...AUTAUGAVILLE...AND BILLINGSLEY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY... COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 08:56 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
My local Fox station here in Ct. discussed snow Thursday as a "small storm of up to 6 inches," then he said we could face another monster storm this weekend,

My local NBC guy who is much more accurate, would not go into detail and gave a 3 day forecast instead of a 5 day, stopping at Weds. with a watching for possible snow Thursday and the weekend.....hmmmm.
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 09:04 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

BREAKING: National Weather Service reports a new total of 63 injuries and 300 homes/buildings damaged in Hattiesburg #tornado. No deaths.
getit

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02/11/2013 09:37 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Talk about overkill, Whoa Chicken Little the sky is falling the sky is falling, for pete's sake call in the National Guard give the Post Office shovels wire all ships at sea and NATO even, declare a national emergency it is snowing it is snowing and it's only January, like the middle of winter even; will wonders never cease? Lordy lordy it is snowing the sky is falling, time to declare a national disaster, a disaster I tell ya, how bout spreading some of that Federal disaster relief money Yo YO Hey. What? What is that you say? It is raining now, well then,/ sarcasm off/ never mind.
5a
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02/11/2013 09:55 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
BRING IT ONNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!​!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!​!!
Vision Thing

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02/11/2013 10:08 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
I for one at least hope it is an active storm pattern in the midwest instead so we can stay on top of the drought situation and not end up like last year. We're doing well so far and I'd like to keep it that way. Storms may be rough, but are the ever so needed
 Quoting: apiratewithadd


Spoken like a true midwesterner.
apiratewithadd

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02/11/2013 10:12 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
I for one at least hope it is an active storm pattern in the midwest instead so we can stay on top of the drought situation and not end up like last year. We're doing well so far and I'd like to keep it that way. Storms may be rough, but are the ever so needed
 Quoting: apiratewithadd


Spoken like a true midwesterner.
 Quoting: Vision Thing


well, we do need the rain...
I just have an interest in natural disasters and the amazing biosphere that is our planet.

The love of Christ might be true, but his followers are nothing close to who he is.
Ricky Retardo

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02/11/2013 10:48 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Talk about overkill, Whoa Chicken Little the sky is falling the sky is falling, for pete's sake call in the National Guard give the Post Office shovels wire all ships at sea and NATO even, declare a national emergency it is snowing it is snowing and it's only January, like the middle of winter even; will wonders never cease? Lordy lordy it is snowing the sky is falling, time to declare a national disaster, a disaster I tell ya, how bout spreading some of that Federal disaster relief money Yo YO Hey. What? What is that you say? It is raining now, well then,/ sarcasm off/ never mind.
5a
 Quoting: getit


dumbass
Formerly Anita PooporShart & Anderson Pooper.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 11:06 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
I live outside C-bus Ohio and the wind is insane.. I am afraid we are going to loose power..
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 11:51 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Luisport, you rock!!! Thanks so much for your hard work!!!
Alexander

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02/11/2013 12:05 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.
Winston Churchill
oneLOVEsoulJAH
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02/11/2013 12:08 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
My local Fox station here in Ct. discussed snow Thursday as a "small storm of up to 6 inches," then he said we could face another monster storm this weekend,

My local NBC guy who is much more accurate, would not go into detail and gave a 3 day forecast instead of a 5 day, stopping at Weds. with a watching for possible snow Thursday and the weekend.....hmmmm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18339838


Yikes!!!!

We haven't even been plowed out yet!

Well at least the crops, plants and trees are gonna grow beautifully this year - what an awesome spring we will have!

oneLOVE
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 12:58 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Luis.

What has happened with El Nino and La Nina.

I haven't heard those two words used to describe any weather events for months.

They are always used to describe cause and effect in our weather patterns up until this year.

Where are they. Did they die a death...?
geminilion
We need more cowbell!

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02/11/2013 01:01 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
:aint:
..."The soul is dyed the color of its thoughts. Think only on those things that are in line with your principles and can bear the light of day. The content of your character is your choice. Day by day, what you choose, what you think, and what you do is who you become. Your integrity is your destiny ... it is the light that guides your way."
Heraclitus
CowgirlK

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02/11/2013 01:04 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

BREAKING: National Weather Service reports a new total of 63 injuries and 300 homes/buildings damaged in Hattiesburg #tornado. No deaths.
 Quoting: Luisport


Hi Luis, I heard that last night. Looks like today people will be dealing with flooding. Crazy weather! Thanks for keeping an eye on the sky!

hf
CowgirlK

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02/11/2013 01:09 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Nova Scotia took a pretty good hit from the weekend storms too.

NOVA SCOTIANS were still digging out and assessing the damage Sunday from a major winter storm that brought hurricane-force winds and storm surges in some areas.

High winds battered parts of southwestern Nova Scotia, damaging wharfs and buildings.

Environment Canada received reports that winds reached 164 kilometres an hour in Woods Harbour, Shelburne County.

“You’re well into the Category 2, almost Category 3-range hurricane-force wind gusts,” meteorologist Jeremy March said Sunday.

[link to thechronicleherald.ca]

A friend of mine in Toronto sent me a picture of her car parked in front of her house this weekend. It looked like a snow bump.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 01:12 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
we are doomed
Little Miss Sunshine

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02/11/2013 01:20 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
I live outside C-bus Ohio and the wind is insane.. I am afraid we are going to loose power..
 Quoting: Ohio Lovely


Im in SW Ohio and the wind is real bad here as well. Im in the country and my house sits in between 3 open fields so we are really getting hammered out here.
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 01:43 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
I live outside C-bus Ohio and the wind is insane.. I am afraid we are going to loose power..
 Quoting: Ohio Lovely


Im in SW Ohio and the wind is real bad here as well. Im in the country and my house sits in between 3 open fields so we are really getting hammered out here.
 Quoting: Little Miss Sunshine


It has been non stop.. I am waiting for a power issue..
mrmuffins69
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02/11/2013 01:56 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
crap
Anonymous Coward
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02/11/2013 02:18 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A 150-mile stretch of I-90 remains closed through central South Dakota due to blizzard.
 Quoting: Luisport


It was no blizzard only 3 inches of snow... Pffft.. I live in sioux falls sd and this has been a piss poor winter.. we have gotten only 8 inches total this year so far.. We are using to get a foot here 16 inches there.. not a inch here 2 inches there..
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:32 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Luis.

What has happened with El Nino and La Nina.

I haven't heard those two words used to describe any weather events for months.

They are always used to describe cause and effect in our weather patterns up until this year.

Where are they. Did they die a death...?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34159726


No, this year it seams La nina will be active
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:42 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:53 PM GMT em 11 de Fevereiro de 2013

The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters

[link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:43 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
[link to i.imgur.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:46 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
gulf coast folks..storms turning severe..stay safe over there...............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
220 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

LAC091-105-117-MSC005-113-147-112100-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130211T2100Z/
AMITE MS-WALTHALL MS-ST. HELENA LA-PIKE MS-WASHINGTON LA-
TANGIPAHOA LA-
220 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST
FOR SOUTHERN PIKE...SOUTHERN WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN AMITE
COUNTIES...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN ST. HELENA PARISHES...

AT 218 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF GILLSBERG...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OSYKA...MCCOMB AIRPORT...MAGNOLIA...MOUNT HERMAN...TYLERTOWN AND
DEXTER
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:48 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

With 44 mb/24 hr pressure drop to 957 mb minimum -- it's 6-days away in GFS forecast so quite "uncertain" [link to twitter.com]

5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Just for reference, GFS 06z has one of the most intense extratropical storms "ever" for the Northeast in medium range. #Superbomb.
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:50 PM

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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

With 44 mb/24 hr pressure drop to 957 mb minimum -- it's 6-days away in GFS forecast so quite "uncertain" [link to twitter.com]

5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Just for reference, GFS 06z has one of the most intense extratropical storms "ever" for the Northeast in medium range. #Superbomb.

 Quoting: Luisport


gaspgaspgasp
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:56 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Speaking of that active winter weather pattern. Here's the 6z GFS from Maue's twitter. Yikes 12z GFS has an even stronger storm, though its track is a little different. Euro has a similar wave pattern, but has a less amplified solution, resulting in a weaker storm at the surface. Track on the Euro is also further out to sea.
Luisport (OP)

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02/11/2013 03:56 PM

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Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

NWS in NYC: "A general 3-6 inch snow fall across the tri-state [Wed night] - with highest amounts across NYC metro/Long Island/coastal CT."

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