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932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2013 08:35 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
So when is Philly's best chance at getting more than a dusting, and is there any chance it could happen DURING THE WORK WEEK?!?!?

All we've had is weekend storms! Or rain while Boston gets 3 fucking feet!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1459781


LOL that of storm weekend is good... the next one will be on sunday/monday... it's early to say for shure how it will be
 Quoting: Luisport


BUT I'M OFF MONDAY ALREADY!!! AAAAHHHHHH!!!
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 08:37 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
On the local Ct. news this morning they are reporting both potential storms are going out to sea, is this accurate? Is it possible we will have another major storm here? Our schools are still out due to the blizzard, roads are improving, parking lots are insane.
 Quoting: kaz


the major runs don't agree yet... lets see tomorrow and friday how models evolve...
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 08:38 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
[link to pbs.twimg.com] BRRRRRRRRRRR
natasha77

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02/13/2013 08:42 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Luis, what's this about possible snow for Florida?
I'm North of Tampa.
Thank you very much.

Last Edited by natasha77 on 02/13/2013 08:43 AM
SPEAK UP. SILENCE IS DEADLY!

I am currently experiencing life at several WTFs per hour.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2013 08:44 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
On the local Ct. news this morning they are reporting both potential storms are going out to sea, is this accurate? Is it possible we will have another major storm here? Our schools are still out due to the blizzard, roads are improving, parking lots are insane.
 Quoting: kaz


the major runs don't agree yet... lets see tomorrow and friday how models evolve...
 Quoting: Luisport


op,

You seriously need to change your thread tittle.

I live in central Florida and it was85 degrees and sunny yesterday.

I picked greens and tomatoes from my garden.


bsflag
kaz

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02/13/2013 08:46 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
On the local Ct. news this morning they are reporting both potential storms are going out to sea, is this accurate? Is it possible we will have another major storm here? Our schools are still out due to the blizzard, roads are improving, parking lots are insane.
 Quoting: kaz


the major runs don't agree yet... lets see tomorrow and friday how models evolve...
 Quoting: Luisport


On the local Ct. news this morning they are reporting both potential storms are going out to sea, is this accurate? Is it possible we will have another major storm here? Our schools are still out due to the blizzard, roads are improving, parking lots are insane.
 Quoting: kaz


the major runs don't agree yet... lets see tomorrow and friday how models evolve...
 Quoting: Luisport


Thank you our local guys said they do agree, going to start preparing again, if we get slammed again well be inside for a while.
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 08:47 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Luis, what's this about possible snow for Florida?
I'm North of Tampa.
Thank you very much.
 Quoting: natasha77


i'm posting florida issues here: Thread: Major Flooding expected along the Lower Mississippi river!!! HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA!!!
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 09:18 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
GFS at 84 hours....snow folks............ [link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 09:18 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Now this is interesting!! [link to i47.tinypic.com]
Ricky Retardo

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02/13/2013 09:32 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
So when is Philly's best chance at getting more than a dusting, and is there any chance it could happen DURING THE WORK WEEK?!?!?

All we've had is weekend storms! Or rain while Boston gets 3 fucking feet!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1459781


LOL that of storm weekend is good... the next one will be on sunday/monday... it's early to say for shure how it will be
 Quoting: Luisport


BUT I'M OFF MONDAY ALREADY!!! AAAAHHHHHH!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1472740


THIS!!

Why can't mother nature give us something on a wed or thur. Shit, ill even take a Monday if I had to work. I want to be punished with beautiful white snow AND a day off.
Formerly Anita PooporShart & Anderson Pooper.
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2013 09:32 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
GFS at 84 hours....snow folks............ [link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]
 Quoting: Luisport


At this point OP I don't know, The GFS run is putting me in a fog, it is sending the storm for the weekend more and more out to sea and even the NAO was just updated to go more positive when yesterday it was forecasted to go negative, But the PNA is forecasted to go positive too I mean if that is going positive storms are going to form they just won't be blocked to go father west, lol I am confused right now
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 09:34 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
GFS at 84 hours....snow folks............ [link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]
 Quoting: Luisport


At this point OP I don't know, The GFS run is putting me in a fog, it is sending the storm for the weekend more and more out to sea and even the NAO was just updated to go more positive when yesterday it was forecasted to go negative, But the PNA is forecasted to go positive too I mean if that is going positive storms are going to form they just won't be blocked to go father west, lol I am confused right now
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19534453


yes, models are strugling...
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2013 10:00 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Now this is interesting!! [link to i47.tinypic.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Luis, what does that mean? I can't read those things to save my life (weather map impaired).
kaz

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02/13/2013 02:20 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Just checked Joe Bastardi tweet, looks like models are starting show east coast will get it,
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 02:22 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Most significant cold of the winter so far in the interior South may come this weekend: [link to ow.ly]
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2013 02:23 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
snow for New Jersey and dates?
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 02:25 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Just checked Joe Bastardi tweet, looks like models are starting show east coast will get it,
 Quoting: kaz



Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

JMA/UKMET has the east coast snowstorm on weekend.. CMON ecmwf, will ya. Fla freeze threat too,but the bigger the ne storm, less the chc

5 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

E coast Snowstorm still on table for weekend,along with threat of fla Orange Grove freeze.Tricky call [link to Weatherbell.com] vid discusses
Luisport (OP)

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02/13/2013 02:26 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
snow for New Jersey and dates?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1108758


florida too
kaz

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02/13/2013 02:27 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
My daughter won't be back at school until next week, if we get hit, she'll be back in May.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:09 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

If only snow lovers could live in the world of the 8-day GFS forecast: [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:21 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
TropicalTidbitsLevi Cowan 13 h
12z NOGAPS(top) vs. NAVGEM (bottom). Details more visible in NAVGEM, like possible triple-point low within nor'easter [link to twitter.com]

Last Edited by OXI Luisport on 02/14/2013 05:22 AM
ANHEDONIC

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02/14/2013 05:27 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
As I recall I told people yesterday that because there was thunder with the snow storm that over the next week or 2 there would be more big storms. Once again proving that the old fashioned ways of the Indians still goes. Always remember that, when you get thunder snow, usually within a week or so you will get another big storm. Sort of like Halo's around the moon tell us that a storm is coming soon.
 Quoting: pmb1


halomoon

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
ANHEDONIC

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02/14/2013 05:28 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Just checked Joe Bastardi tweet, looks like models are starting show east coast will get it,
 Quoting: kaz


What are the dates in question?

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 06:43 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Here's the SPC's 4-8 day convective outlook:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SCNTRL TX MONDAY AS NRN STREAM
SHORT-WAVE UNIFIES WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS
STRONG SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH
MOIST/WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER EAST TX...THEN ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF STATES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

LATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT
MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE
SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING
THE DAY8 PERIOD. WILL NOT INTRODUCE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN THREAT
COULD BE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 02/14/2013
kaz

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02/14/2013 06:54 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Morning, my local guy who is usually most accurate said a burst of snow on Sat. and that's it for the weekend in Ct. any other,updates?
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 07:05 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Morning, my local guy who is usually most accurate said a burst of snow on Sat. and that's it for the weekend in Ct. any other,updates?
 Quoting: kaz


AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Weekend snowstorm can't be ruled out for Northeast [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 07:05 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL VISIT OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NATURE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 OR 9 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS MAY IMPACT
AREA BEACHES DURING THIS TIME.

VERY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES.
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 07:13 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
My vagina is so wet right now.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 07:14 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
My vagina is so wet right now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27763540


ohno
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 07:20 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
February 21-23 Potential Significant Winter Storm
By Andrew at 4:02 PM

The potential for a storm system between the 21st and 23rd continues to unravel as the time draws closer.

Pictured above is the ECMWF model (henceforth called the European model), forecasted for Day 9 (9 days away). The image shows mean sea level pressure values for this system, and the system is defined in the Midwest with a central minimum pressure of just above 1001 millibars. This is not a particularly strong system, but is still worth watching closely, as this model is projecting widespread amounts over 6 inches for many big cities in the Great Lakes and Midwest.

Now pictured above is the GFS Model (henceforth called the American model), also valid for Day 9. This time, however, the American model is projecting mean sea level pressures to be as low as 993 millibars, indicating a very strong storm system. Storm placement is relatively similar, with both models indicating the storm will be somewhere in the central half of Illinois. There is definitely that big strength difference, and this strength difference will eventually determine just where the storm goes and how much snow is produced. The American model prints out nearly a foot of snow in the Upper Midwest in response to this storm system, higher than the European model.

Now we see the American model's ensembles for the same timeframe. Now shown are 850 millibar temperature values and mean sea level pressure contour lines. The ensembles take the system to a very similar placement as the European model; not surprising given that most forecast models tend to follow the European model. Notice how the system is weak and spread out in this forecast. This denotes uncertainty among the models- typically, uncertainty in ensembles is denoted by a very broad low pressure system, and that is what is being observed here. Personally, the addition of this ensemble set to the pack of forecasting systems supporting such a snowstorm enhances confidence that this event will actually happen.

Now shown above are the European model's own ensemble set, forecasting the Day 9 forecast of 850 millibar temperatures and mean sea level pressure contours. The ensembles are slightly further south when matched up with the American model, American ensembles and European model. This is to be expected; all models and ensembles, no matter their forecasting accuracy will have problems in the long range. Nonetheless, its presence in the relative same area as the other models is indeed supportive of this event coming to fruition.

I could go on and on about other models and ensembles supporting such a solution, but we need to take a step back and analyze the atmospheric pattern that will be in place when this storm potentially occurs.

This is the American ensemble forecast, yet again for 9 days away from today. The colors show 500 millibar pressure anomalies, with blues signifying below normal heights (low pressure) and reds depicting above normal heights (high pressure). First and foremost, this system will be originating from the Pacific. If we look at the Pacific ocean, we find a very tight jet stream, shown as the 500mb pressure contours grouped very close together. This tightened jet stream adds increased energy to disturbances that flow through this jet stream. The pieces of energy may start off in the Bering Sea, where persistent low pressure is holding strong in this forecast. As they swing out from the Bering Sea, strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska tightens the Pacific Jet stream further. In response to the extreme above normal height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, low pressure would be tempted to develop in the Southwest. If we recall Newton's Third Law of Motion, every action produces and equal and opposite reaction. The presence of extreme high pressure in the Pacific will not only enhance low pressure in the Bering Sea, it will also do so in the Southwest. A concern from those two anomalies of pressure is that a Rex Block may set up. A Rex Block occurs when high pressure is stacked north of low pressure. We can see this trying to happen in the West US, with that Pacific high pressure apparently trying to progress into the Pacific Northwest region. Persistent low pressure in the Southwest would finish out the Rex Block. A Rex Block induces a more zonally-oriented (west to east) wind flow that is more favorable for warm temperatures and not big coastal storms. Fortunately, these concerns are alleviated when looking at other ensemble forecasts near this timeframe.

What is apparent is that a negative Pacific North American index (PNA) will be present during this timeframe. A negative PNA acts to produce persistent low pressure in the West US, and this then instigates high pressure formation in the Southeast US. This high pressure formation is a barricade to Nor'easters and any winter weather for the East US. We do see a pretty solid negative PNA in the forecast by February 21st as shown in the image above. If this does happen, we can expect high pressure formation in the Southeast US in response.

However, all hope is not lost for those in the Midwest. Rather, it is enhanced. This is the forecast from several global models and ensembles for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the negative NAO, high pressure forms over Greenland and stays there. In response, the jet stream will dip south into portions of the US and produce an environment favorable for coastal storms (aka Nor'easters). We see a fair consensus of a negative NAO during the timeframe of this potential storm. The strength of this negative NAO is TBD, but the general idea of a negative NAO is in place.
The North Atlantic Oscillation then gets more specific with the West-based and East-based phases. The West-based negative NAO means that high pressure over Greenland is centered to the west of that land mass, hence west-based negative NAO. It is this specific phase that is best for Nor'easters. The East-based negative NAO means that high pressure is strongest to the east of Greenland, and this means storms and cold are preferred in the Midwest over the Northeast. Looking over more model forecasts, the negative NAO will be nearly evenly distributed among both regions, but the East-based is definitely a favored phase by the time this storm's timeframe rolls around.

The negative PNA will set off the storm originally going through the Southern US, but high pressure in the Southeast will try to force it north into the Northern Plains, a common storm track this winter. However, the east-based negative NAO will suppress that high pressure to the point that the storm system is able to stay on a more eastward track that then goes through the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes, delivering snow to those areas. For those wondering if the Southeast ridge could disappear and the storm goes up the coast, chances are nil. The negative PNA, having a stronger influence on the US weather as it is upstream from the nation, will make the Southeast ridge prevail to an extent that matches my description in the first few sentences of this paragraph.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

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