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932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 07:59 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Winds of change will come east the next several days as a shot of cold air seeps southward out of Canada. [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:20 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Here's what the weekend is looking like now: 1-3" snow Sat/Sun. After that, a sharp cold front will restrict high temps to 25-35F Sun/Mon.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:23 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Biggest impact of wknd storm will be *cold* temps. NYC highs in upper 20s/low 30s Sun + winds ~40mph will result in wind chills near zero.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:30 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Sat storm: Models have been back and forth so much -- but for now most of storm's energy looks to head to Vermont/Nova Scotia -- not NYC.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:34 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
000
FXUS62 KTAE 141107
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
607 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Today]...

Broad troughing through the middle and upper levels sprawl the
entire CONUS this morning. At the surface, the Tri-state region lies
between two cold fronts. The main front, with the sharpest
temperature and dewpoint gradient, lies across north-central Florida,
while a weaker reinforcing essentially bisects the CWA. Behind
the secondary front, high pressure is overspreading the Southeast.
Light showers, being supported by a low/mid level shortwave trough
axis, are ongoing ahead of the secondary front. Expect the low QPF
showers to remain confined to the southeast Big Bend and Apalachee
Bay through the day. The rather solid upper level cloud deck will
likely persist through much of the afternoon, not beginning to
clear our western counties until late this afternoon. Thus, with
the clouds not expected to diminish any time soon, cool temperatures
are expected this afternoon. Have lowered the expected max temperatures
this morning to show much of the Tri-State region lingering in the
middle to upper 50s. The 60 degree mark may be realized across
portions of southeast Alabama where sunshine will be allowed in
once the clouds clear this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The broad trough (including a slightly out-of-phase southern stream)
over much of the CONUS is forecast to become much more phased and
sharper as a polar vortex becomes centered over the Great Lakes by
Friday night. The deep long wave trough will translate quickly
eastward over the eastern CONUS on Saturday. This type of pattern
is associated with arctic intrusions, something we haven`t had so
far this mild winter.

For tonight, the rain band (currently affecting the southern half of
our forecast area) will finally exit our forecast area. Although
the airmass across our forecast area isn`t especially cold,
conditions will still be favorable enough for fairly strong
radiational cooling, and patchy frost is possible in the normally
colder, inland sites away from the cities. On Friday, a dry arctic
cold front will begin approaching our region from the northwest.
Skies will remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s (near
average). The cold front will pass southeastward through the area
late Friday night and Saturday morning, ushering in much colder,
drier air for the weekend.

With model consensus 850 mb temperatures well below freezing over
much of the forecast area Saturday, and areas of clouds, the MOS
from all the models seem too warm (mid to upper 50s). Our forecast
highs are at least 5 deg cooler than MOS consensus, and could
still be a bit warm depending on (a) how much cloud cover there is
and (b) whether or not the main thrust of cold air gets shunted
slightly to our east (which has happened several times so far this
winter). Most of the NWP guidance shows enough moisture and Q-G
forcing (ahead of the long wave trough axis) for an increase in
clouds Saturday behind the cold front. Of these solutions, the
00 UTC NAM has the most impressive moisture/omega fields. It`s
possible that a brief snow flurry or two could occur in our
Southeast AL or South GA zones before the trough axis passes
by later in the day. However, any impact from this would be
negligible (limited deep layer moisture and relatively warm
surface temperatures). It`s just a bit of a curiosity at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...

The long term guidance is in reasonable agreement on a deep trough
amplifying across the eastern states on Saturday. The main impact
for the local area will be the potential for a freeze on Saturday
night and Sunday night. The next potential for a widespread rain is
expected to come with another cold front around Tuesday.
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 34380974
Portugal
02/14/2013 09:36 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
000
FXUS62 KTAE 141107
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
607 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Today]...

Broad troughing through the middle and upper levels sprawl the
entire CONUS this morning. At the surface, the Tri-state region lies
between two cold fronts. The main front, with the sharpest
temperature and dewpoint gradient, lies across north-central Florida,
while a weaker reinforcing essentially bisects the CWA. Behind
the secondary front, high pressure is overspreading the Southeast.
Light showers, being supported by a low/mid level shortwave trough
axis, are ongoing ahead of the secondary front. Expect the low QPF
showers to remain confined to the southeast Big Bend and Apalachee
Bay through the day. The rather solid upper level cloud deck will
likely persist through much of the afternoon, not beginning to
clear our western counties until late this afternoon. Thus, with
the clouds not expected to diminish any time soon, cool temperatures
are expected this afternoon. Have lowered the expected max temperatures
this morning to show much of the Tri-State region lingering in the
middle to upper 50s. The 60 degree mark may be realized across
portions of southeast Alabama where sunshine will be allowed in
once the clouds clear this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The broad trough (including a slightly out-of-phase southern stream)
over much of the CONUS is forecast to become much more phased and
sharper as a polar vortex becomes centered over the Great Lakes by
Friday night. The deep long wave trough will translate quickly
eastward over the eastern CONUS on Saturday. This type of pattern
is associated with arctic intrusions, something we haven`t had so
far this mild winter.

For tonight, the rain band (currently affecting the southern half of
our forecast area) will finally exit our forecast area. Although
the airmass across our forecast area isn`t especially cold,
conditions will still be favorable enough for fairly strong
radiational cooling, and patchy frost is possible in the normally
colder, inland sites away from the cities. On Friday, a dry arctic
cold front will begin approaching our region from the northwest.
Skies will remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s (near
average). The cold front will pass southeastward through the area
late Friday night and Saturday morning, ushering in much colder,
drier air for the weekend.

With model consensus 850 mb temperatures well below freezing over
much of the forecast area Saturday, and areas of clouds, the MOS
from all the models seem too warm (mid to upper 50s). Our forecast
highs are at least 5 deg cooler than MOS consensus, and could
still be a bit warm depending on (a) how much cloud cover there is
and (b) whether or not the main thrust of cold air gets shunted
slightly to our east (which has happened several times so far this
winter). Most of the NWP guidance shows enough moisture and Q-G
forcing (ahead of the long wave trough axis) for an increase in
clouds Saturday behind the cold front. Of these solutions, the
00 UTC NAM has the most impressive moisture/omega fields. It`s
possible that a brief snow flurry or two could occur in our
Southeast AL or South GA zones before the trough axis passes
by later in the day. However, any impact from this would be
negligible (limited deep layer moisture and relatively warm
surface temperatures). It`s just a bit of a curiosity at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...

The long term guidance is in reasonable agreement on a deep trough
amplifying across the eastern states on Saturday. The main impact
for the local area will be the potential for a freeze on Saturday
night and Sunday night. The next potential for a widespread rain is
expected to come with another cold front around Tuesday.
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 34380974
Portugal
02/14/2013 09:41 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Both GFS and EURO have more #snow for northeast this weekend. GFS more robust especially with mid-Atlantic: [link to wxcaster4.com] …
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:45 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

NYC's current active winter weather pattern continues next week, with two more possible storms Wed (mostly rain) and next Sat (mostly snow).
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:49 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Next Tue/Wed's storm looks to track north of NYC, so prob rain. Next Fri/Sat storm is prob a bigger snow threat. Both trackable for now.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/14/2013 11:06 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Both GFS and EURO have more #snow for northeast this weekend. GFS more robust especially with mid-Atlantic: [link to wxcaster4.com] …
 Quoting: Luisport


Great thanks guess I will get ready we had 3 feet last week, side roads are still awful main roads mostly one lane, another 6-8 isn't good.
Crazy Harriet

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United States
02/14/2013 12:28 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
and when all that snow melts in the spring rains......
Hillary for President! Only Gollum could destroy the ring!

Crazy H.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:26 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:28 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Applied my crayons to the Canadian snowfall accumulations: thru 3.5-days [link to twitter.com]

57 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

New Canadian Model (upgraded) shows dual low situation at +5.5 days. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:35 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana & Ohio may get travel-disrupting snow Mon-Tues: [link to ow.ly]
kaz

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United States
02/14/2013 05:36 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:44 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
 Quoting: kaz


well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday
kaz

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02/14/2013 05:46 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
 Quoting: kaz


well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday
 Quoting: Luisport


I am getting a big glass of wine and laughing my arse off!! We are being told 3 inches tomorrow afternoon into Sat.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:50 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
 Quoting: kaz


well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday
 Quoting: Luisport


I am getting a big glass of wine and laughing my arse off!! We are being told 3 inches tomorrow afternoon into Sat.
 Quoting: kaz


Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

18z GFS pushes bulk of weekend storm out to sea. HOWEVER, it leaves some interesting chances for #SNOW in EAST CENTRAL VA and NC #NCwx #VAwx
kaz

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02/14/2013 05:54 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Crazy everyone is all over the place.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:57 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Crazy everyone is all over the place.
 Quoting: kaz



ABC6 News Desk‏@ABC6

After the storm, it turns very cold and windy Sunday, with highs in the 20s & wind chills near zero to finish the weekend on a wintry note.

2 minABC6 News Desk‏@ABC6

Southern New England Weather Update.. Coastal storm could bring several inches of snow this weekend, especially Sat. night into Sun. morning
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 06:11 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
florida just had a small tornado.
weird.
said it picked up some cars and threw them around.
Makenake

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02/14/2013 06:53 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
So is it looking better or worse now for the DC area?
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:15 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z really bombs out the coastal low. 1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs, getting into the historical territory. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:27 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAVGEM (Navy) model has #bomb cyclone over New England as well. 972 mb [link to twitter.com]

12 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@ColdWaterMaine newly upgraded Canadian model dumps all over you pic. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:32 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
[link to weather.unisys.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:34 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Canadian Model snowfall totals closer to foot for New England, a lot more in Canada, of course. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:43 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Interesting to see how much of this GFS estimated snow actually arrives for the Carolinas Saturday morning/midday. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:45 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

How cold will Miami be Sunday morning (with a wind chill advisory?) GFS 40-42°, ECMWF 45° ... then back into the 80s
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:57 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Snow possible now as far down as South Carolina..impressive
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 12:02 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Curious little low along West Coast, snow for California. [link to twitter.com]

10 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z 7-day forecast snow totals -- lots of frozen hydrometeors [link to twitter.com]

Last Edited by Luisport on 02/15/2013 12:04 PM

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