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932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 07:20 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
February 21-23 Potential Significant Winter Storm
By Andrew at 4:02 PM

The potential for a storm system between the 21st and 23rd continues to unravel as the time draws closer.

Pictured above is the ECMWF model (henceforth called the European model), forecasted for Day 9 (9 days away). The image shows mean sea level pressure values for this system, and the system is defined in the Midwest with a central minimum pressure of just above 1001 millibars. This is not a particularly strong system, but is still worth watching closely, as this model is projecting widespread amounts over 6 inches for many big cities in the Great Lakes and Midwest.

Now pictured above is the GFS Model (henceforth called the American model), also valid for Day 9. This time, however, the American model is projecting mean sea level pressures to be as low as 993 millibars, indicating a very strong storm system. Storm placement is relatively similar, with both models indicating the storm will be somewhere in the central half of Illinois. There is definitely that big strength difference, and this strength difference will eventually determine just where the storm goes and how much snow is produced. The American model prints out nearly a foot of snow in the Upper Midwest in response to this storm system, higher than the European model.

Now we see the American model's ensembles for the same timeframe. Now shown are 850 millibar temperature values and mean sea level pressure contour lines. The ensembles take the system to a very similar placement as the European model; not surprising given that most forecast models tend to follow the European model. Notice how the system is weak and spread out in this forecast. This denotes uncertainty among the models- typically, uncertainty in ensembles is denoted by a very broad low pressure system, and that is what is being observed here. Personally, the addition of this ensemble set to the pack of forecasting systems supporting such a snowstorm enhances confidence that this event will actually happen.

Now shown above are the European model's own ensemble set, forecasting the Day 9 forecast of 850 millibar temperatures and mean sea level pressure contours. The ensembles are slightly further south when matched up with the American model, American ensembles and European model. This is to be expected; all models and ensembles, no matter their forecasting accuracy will have problems in the long range. Nonetheless, its presence in the relative same area as the other models is indeed supportive of this event coming to fruition.

I could go on and on about other models and ensembles supporting such a solution, but we need to take a step back and analyze the atmospheric pattern that will be in place when this storm potentially occurs.

This is the American ensemble forecast, yet again for 9 days away from today. The colors show 500 millibar pressure anomalies, with blues signifying below normal heights (low pressure) and reds depicting above normal heights (high pressure). First and foremost, this system will be originating from the Pacific. If we look at the Pacific ocean, we find a very tight jet stream, shown as the 500mb pressure contours grouped very close together. This tightened jet stream adds increased energy to disturbances that flow through this jet stream. The pieces of energy may start off in the Bering Sea, where persistent low pressure is holding strong in this forecast. As they swing out from the Bering Sea, strong high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska tightens the Pacific Jet stream further. In response to the extreme above normal height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, low pressure would be tempted to develop in the Southwest. If we recall Newton's Third Law of Motion, every action produces and equal and opposite reaction. The presence of extreme high pressure in the Pacific will not only enhance low pressure in the Bering Sea, it will also do so in the Southwest. A concern from those two anomalies of pressure is that a Rex Block may set up. A Rex Block occurs when high pressure is stacked north of low pressure. We can see this trying to happen in the West US, with that Pacific high pressure apparently trying to progress into the Pacific Northwest region. Persistent low pressure in the Southwest would finish out the Rex Block. A Rex Block induces a more zonally-oriented (west to east) wind flow that is more favorable for warm temperatures and not big coastal storms. Fortunately, these concerns are alleviated when looking at other ensemble forecasts near this timeframe.

What is apparent is that a negative Pacific North American index (PNA) will be present during this timeframe. A negative PNA acts to produce persistent low pressure in the West US, and this then instigates high pressure formation in the Southeast US. This high pressure formation is a barricade to Nor'easters and any winter weather for the East US. We do see a pretty solid negative PNA in the forecast by February 21st as shown in the image above. If this does happen, we can expect high pressure formation in the Southeast US in response.

However, all hope is not lost for those in the Midwest. Rather, it is enhanced. This is the forecast from several global models and ensembles for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the negative NAO, high pressure forms over Greenland and stays there. In response, the jet stream will dip south into portions of the US and produce an environment favorable for coastal storms (aka Nor'easters). We see a fair consensus of a negative NAO during the timeframe of this potential storm. The strength of this negative NAO is TBD, but the general idea of a negative NAO is in place.
The North Atlantic Oscillation then gets more specific with the West-based and East-based phases. The West-based negative NAO means that high pressure over Greenland is centered to the west of that land mass, hence west-based negative NAO. It is this specific phase that is best for Nor'easters. The East-based negative NAO means that high pressure is strongest to the east of Greenland, and this means storms and cold are preferred in the Midwest over the Northeast. Looking over more model forecasts, the negative NAO will be nearly evenly distributed among both regions, but the East-based is definitely a favored phase by the time this storm's timeframe rolls around.

The negative PNA will set off the storm originally going through the Southern US, but high pressure in the Southeast will try to force it north into the Northern Plains, a common storm track this winter. However, the east-based negative NAO will suppress that high pressure to the point that the storm system is able to stay on a more eastward track that then goes through the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes, delivering snow to those areas. For those wondering if the Southeast ridge could disappear and the storm goes up the coast, chances are nil. The negative PNA, having a stronger influence on the US weather as it is upstream from the nation, will make the Southeast ridge prevail to an extent that matches my description in the first few sentences of this paragraph.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 07:59 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Winds of change will come east the next several days as a shot of cold air seeps southward out of Canada. [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:20 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Here's what the weekend is looking like now: 1-3" snow Sat/Sun. After that, a sharp cold front will restrict high temps to 25-35F Sun/Mon.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:23 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Biggest impact of wknd storm will be *cold* temps. NYC highs in upper 20s/low 30s Sun + winds ~40mph will result in wind chills near zero.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:30 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Sat storm: Models have been back and forth so much -- but for now most of storm's energy looks to head to Vermont/Nova Scotia -- not NYC.
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02/14/2013 09:34 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
000
FXUS62 KTAE 141107
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
607 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Today]...

Broad troughing through the middle and upper levels sprawl the
entire CONUS this morning. At the surface, the Tri-state region lies
between two cold fronts. The main front, with the sharpest
temperature and dewpoint gradient, lies across north-central Florida,
while a weaker reinforcing essentially bisects the CWA. Behind
the secondary front, high pressure is overspreading the Southeast.
Light showers, being supported by a low/mid level shortwave trough
axis, are ongoing ahead of the secondary front. Expect the low QPF
showers to remain confined to the southeast Big Bend and Apalachee
Bay through the day. The rather solid upper level cloud deck will
likely persist through much of the afternoon, not beginning to
clear our western counties until late this afternoon. Thus, with
the clouds not expected to diminish any time soon, cool temperatures
are expected this afternoon. Have lowered the expected max temperatures
this morning to show much of the Tri-State region lingering in the
middle to upper 50s. The 60 degree mark may be realized across
portions of southeast Alabama where sunshine will be allowed in
once the clouds clear this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The broad trough (including a slightly out-of-phase southern stream)
over much of the CONUS is forecast to become much more phased and
sharper as a polar vortex becomes centered over the Great Lakes by
Friday night. The deep long wave trough will translate quickly
eastward over the eastern CONUS on Saturday. This type of pattern
is associated with arctic intrusions, something we haven`t had so
far this mild winter.

For tonight, the rain band (currently affecting the southern half of
our forecast area) will finally exit our forecast area. Although
the airmass across our forecast area isn`t especially cold,
conditions will still be favorable enough for fairly strong
radiational cooling, and patchy frost is possible in the normally
colder, inland sites away from the cities. On Friday, a dry arctic
cold front will begin approaching our region from the northwest.
Skies will remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s (near
average). The cold front will pass southeastward through the area
late Friday night and Saturday morning, ushering in much colder,
drier air for the weekend.

With model consensus 850 mb temperatures well below freezing over
much of the forecast area Saturday, and areas of clouds, the MOS
from all the models seem too warm (mid to upper 50s). Our forecast
highs are at least 5 deg cooler than MOS consensus, and could
still be a bit warm depending on (a) how much cloud cover there is
and (b) whether or not the main thrust of cold air gets shunted
slightly to our east (which has happened several times so far this
winter). Most of the NWP guidance shows enough moisture and Q-G
forcing (ahead of the long wave trough axis) for an increase in
clouds Saturday behind the cold front. Of these solutions, the
00 UTC NAM has the most impressive moisture/omega fields. It`s
possible that a brief snow flurry or two could occur in our
Southeast AL or South GA zones before the trough axis passes
by later in the day. However, any impact from this would be
negligible (limited deep layer moisture and relatively warm
surface temperatures). It`s just a bit of a curiosity at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...

The long term guidance is in reasonable agreement on a deep trough
amplifying across the eastern states on Saturday. The main impact
for the local area will be the potential for a freeze on Saturday
night and Sunday night. The next potential for a widespread rain is
expected to come with another cold front around Tuesday.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:36 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
000
FXUS62 KTAE 141107
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
607 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Today]...

Broad troughing through the middle and upper levels sprawl the
entire CONUS this morning. At the surface, the Tri-state region lies
between two cold fronts. The main front, with the sharpest
temperature and dewpoint gradient, lies across north-central Florida,
while a weaker reinforcing essentially bisects the CWA. Behind
the secondary front, high pressure is overspreading the Southeast.
Light showers, being supported by a low/mid level shortwave trough
axis, are ongoing ahead of the secondary front. Expect the low QPF
showers to remain confined to the southeast Big Bend and Apalachee
Bay through the day. The rather solid upper level cloud deck will
likely persist through much of the afternoon, not beginning to
clear our western counties until late this afternoon. Thus, with
the clouds not expected to diminish any time soon, cool temperatures
are expected this afternoon. Have lowered the expected max temperatures
this morning to show much of the Tri-State region lingering in the
middle to upper 50s. The 60 degree mark may be realized across
portions of southeast Alabama where sunshine will be allowed in
once the clouds clear this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The broad trough (including a slightly out-of-phase southern stream)
over much of the CONUS is forecast to become much more phased and
sharper as a polar vortex becomes centered over the Great Lakes by
Friday night. The deep long wave trough will translate quickly
eastward over the eastern CONUS on Saturday. This type of pattern
is associated with arctic intrusions, something we haven`t had so
far this mild winter.

For tonight, the rain band (currently affecting the southern half of
our forecast area) will finally exit our forecast area. Although
the airmass across our forecast area isn`t especially cold,
conditions will still be favorable enough for fairly strong
radiational cooling, and patchy frost is possible in the normally
colder, inland sites away from the cities. On Friday, a dry arctic
cold front will begin approaching our region from the northwest.
Skies will remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s (near
average). The cold front will pass southeastward through the area
late Friday night and Saturday morning, ushering in much colder,
drier air for the weekend.

With model consensus 850 mb temperatures well below freezing over
much of the forecast area Saturday, and areas of clouds, the MOS
from all the models seem too warm (mid to upper 50s). Our forecast
highs are at least 5 deg cooler than MOS consensus, and could
still be a bit warm depending on (a) how much cloud cover there is
and (b) whether or not the main thrust of cold air gets shunted
slightly to our east (which has happened several times so far this
winter). Most of the NWP guidance shows enough moisture and Q-G
forcing (ahead of the long wave trough axis) for an increase in
clouds Saturday behind the cold front. Of these solutions, the
00 UTC NAM has the most impressive moisture/omega fields. It`s
possible that a brief snow flurry or two could occur in our
Southeast AL or South GA zones before the trough axis passes
by later in the day. However, any impact from this would be
negligible (limited deep layer moisture and relatively warm
surface temperatures). It`s just a bit of a curiosity at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...

The long term guidance is in reasonable agreement on a deep trough
amplifying across the eastern states on Saturday. The main impact
for the local area will be the potential for a freeze on Saturday
night and Sunday night. The next potential for a widespread rain is
expected to come with another cold front around Tuesday.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:41 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Both GFS and EURO have more #snow for northeast this weekend. GFS more robust especially with mid-Atlantic: [link to wxcaster4.com] …
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:45 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

NYC's current active winter weather pattern continues next week, with two more possible storms Wed (mostly rain) and next Sat (mostly snow).
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 09:49 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus

Next Tue/Wed's storm looks to track north of NYC, so prob rain. Next Fri/Sat storm is prob a bigger snow threat. Both trackable for now.
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 11:06 AM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Both GFS and EURO have more #snow for northeast this weekend. GFS more robust especially with mid-Atlantic: [link to wxcaster4.com] …
 Quoting: Luisport


Great thanks guess I will get ready we had 3 feet last week, side roads are still awful main roads mostly one lane, another 6-8 isn't good.
Crazy Harriet

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02/14/2013 12:28 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
and when all that snow melts in the spring rains......
It is in the interest of Tyrants to reduce the people to Ignorance and Vice. For they cannot live in any Country where Virtue and Knowledge prevail. The religion and public Liberty of a People are intimately connected; their Interests are interwoven, they cannot subsist separately; and therefore they rise and fall together. For this Reason, it is always observable, that those who are combined to destroy the People’s Liberties, practice every Art to poison their Morals. Sam Adams
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:26 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:28 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Applied my crayons to the Canadian snowfall accumulations: thru 3.5-days [link to twitter.com]

57 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

New Canadian Model (upgraded) shows dual low situation at +5.5 days. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:35 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana & Ohio may get travel-disrupting snow Mon-Tues: [link to ow.ly]
kaz

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02/14/2013 05:36 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:44 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
 Quoting: kaz


well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday
kaz

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02/14/2013 05:46 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
 Quoting: kaz


well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday
 Quoting: Luisport


I am getting a big glass of wine and laughing my arse off!! We are being told 3 inches tomorrow afternoon into Sat.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:50 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Luisport


Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend?

Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8..
 Quoting: kaz


well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday
 Quoting: Luisport


I am getting a big glass of wine and laughing my arse off!! We are being told 3 inches tomorrow afternoon into Sat.
 Quoting: kaz


Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

18z GFS pushes bulk of weekend storm out to sea. HOWEVER, it leaves some interesting chances for #SNOW in EAST CENTRAL VA and NC #NCwx #VAwx
kaz

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02/14/2013 05:54 PM
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Crazy everyone is all over the place.
Luisport (OP)

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02/14/2013 05:57 PM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Crazy everyone is all over the place.
 Quoting: kaz



ABC6 News Desk‏@ABC6

After the storm, it turns very cold and windy Sunday, with highs in the 20s & wind chills near zero to finish the weekend on a wintry note.

2 minABC6 News Desk‏@ABC6

Southern New England Weather Update.. Coastal storm could bring several inches of snow this weekend, especially Sat. night into Sun. morning
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 06:11 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
florida just had a small tornado.
weird.
said it picked up some cars and threw them around.
Makenake

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02/14/2013 06:53 PM
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
So is it looking better or worse now for the DC area?
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:15 AM

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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z really bombs out the coastal low. 1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs, getting into the historical territory. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:27 AM

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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAVGEM (Navy) model has #bomb cyclone over New England as well. 972 mb [link to twitter.com]

12 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@ColdWaterMaine newly upgraded Canadian model dumps all over you pic. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:32 AM

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[link to weather.unisys.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/15/2013 11:34 AM

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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Canadian Model snowfall totals closer to foot for New England, a lot more in Canada, of course. [link to twitter.com]
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02/15/2013 11:43 AM

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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Interesting to see how much of this GFS estimated snow actually arrives for the Carolinas Saturday morning/midday. [link to twitter.com]
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02/15/2013 11:45 AM

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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

How cold will Miami be Sunday morning (with a wind chill advisory?) GFS 40-42°, ECMWF 45° ... then back into the 80s
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Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!
Snow possible now as far down as South Carolina..impressive