932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!!

yes of course the east coast will get another big blizzard... i think they want to say that the eye of the low will be located on sea

SPC latest discussion from 10 am CST

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A CONSIDERABLE BROADENING AND INTENSIFICATION OF A SWLY LLJ WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE PRIMARY UPPER-AIR
SYSTEM THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN
EXCEEDINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INLAND IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S WITHIN THE EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
POOR...LIMITING MLCAPE VALUES TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS AS OF MID MORNING FROM
E-CNTRL TX EWD INTO CNTRL AL WITHIN 925-850-MB FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRENGTHENING LLJ.
THESE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SIMILAR REGIME ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
IS AIDED BY THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY /SEE THE 12Z LCH
SOUNDING/.

SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS POTENTIAL SPREADING INLAND THROUGH SRN PARTS OF
AL/GA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL-DERIVED
HODOGRAPHS WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR SHOW 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASING TO 250-350 M2/S2. AS
SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 02/12/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1709Z (12:09PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Luisport, I am in training and can't get to a computer. What is the accumulation for maryland and when will is start? Sorry but you now have hundreds of us that rely on you. Txs,rr

..just found your DC..NWS advance forecast............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WHICH WILL
AFFECT EXACT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A COASTAL LOW MAY CAUSE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.

Tyvm!!!

Frank Strait Fan Club
‎#Snow will go to MD and N VA by tomorrow. Could be some bad storms tomorrow in FL, perhaps north to Carolina coastal plain. #giddyup

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Cold air building over Alaska slowly makes a move -- need to watch extended range potential for much below avg temps: [link to twitter.com]

46 mRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Arctic high filling behind this developing cyclone will chill Eastern US, with below normal temps 3-8 days: GFS 12z [link to twitter.com]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Snow DC to Philly, NYC and Providence at midweek [link to ow.ly]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Rain, then spotty frost for Florida freeze [link to ow.ly]

NYS DHSES‏@NYSDHSES

Another #snow storm is coming. Provide proper shelter for pets. If pets or livestock must remain outdoors, provide fresh water & food.

From Taunton, MA NWS...

THE FOLLOWING OBSERVATION SITES CLEARLY HAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
DURATIONS LISTED ARE APPROXIMATE...

WORCESTER MA.... 8 HOURS
NORWOOD MA...... 7.5 HOURS
NORTH SMITHFIELD RI...5.5 HOURS
BEDFORD MA...... 4.5 HOURS
FALMOUTH MA..... 4.5 HOURS
NEW BEDFORD MA...4.5 HOURS
NEWPORT RI.......3.5 HOURS
HARTFORD CT......3.0 HOURS...AT BRAINARD FIELD

THE FOLLOWING OBSERVATION LOCATIONS WERE DETERMINED TO HAVE ALSO HAD
A BLIZZARD...

WESTFIELD MA.....2.75 HOURS...ROUNDED UP TO 3
MANCHESTER NH....2.75 HOURS...ROUNDED UP TO 3
MARSHFIELD MA....2.5 HOURS BEFORE POWER WENT OUT BUT LIKELY CONTD
BOSTON MA........2.0 HOURS CONTINUOUS...BUT 4 OF 6 HOURS BLIZZARD
TAUNTON MA.......2.0 HOURS CONTINUOUS...AT LEAST 3.5 HOURS TOTAL
BEFORE DATA OUTAGE

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AND STALL
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. A SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE 30S OVER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND 40S ELSEWHERE.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES

DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM IS CAUSING FLOODING
IN THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN.

SNOW FLAKES for DC?...............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON-
BALTIMORE METRO AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC

Winter Storm #Nemo really beat up the Cape Cod coastline. Some of the damage/pictures still coming in: [link to www.wcvb.com]

NWS New York NY‏@NWSNewYorkNY

A winter weather advisory has been issued for S Nassau and all of Suffolk for tonight. [link to ow.ly] #nywx

For sunday/monday.......that is huge

[link to weather.unisys.com]

Yeah, and how much nerve did it take for Obamatard to mention the global warming scam during the state of the onion last nite? When everybodies buried under a ton of snow?
At least he's good at following orders

Tuesday, February 12, 2013February 21-23 Potential Significant Winter Storm
By Andrew at 5:00 PM
I have upgraded this storm forecast from 'Potential winter storm' to 'Potential significant winter storm'. This is the same storm as the February 20-22 storm system.

Okay everyone, I have pulled the trigger and upgraded the storm's title, as models and ensembles are suddenly converging on a solution favorable for heavy snow in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Let's get going with a model overview.

We will start with the European ECMWF model, which will be referred to as the European model henceforth. The European model is showing a very strong storm system present in southern Indiana at Hour 240 (Day 10), with the minimum pressure just below the 990 millibar mark. This storm system would be laying down some solid snowfall in the region, as does happen with any winter storm. The big question is, why is it so strong? We will try to answer that later on, but right now I want you to look towards the Southeast US. If you look closely, you may be able to see low pressure area placed near the Carolinas that is kind of jutting out east of the main storm system. This lower pressure area could eventually slide up the East Coast and make for another big snowstorm if the atmospheric flow is right.

The American GFS model, which will now be called the American model henceforth, is also showing this storm. However, it is significantly weaker and slightly further southeast, with the center now in southeast Indiana. The central minimum pressure is immediately below 1005 millibars, which means this is a very weak storm system. As mentioned above with the European model, we again see an area of lower pressure jutting out east in South Carolina, and this again could be a coastal storm potential. I want to wait for another few days before trying to go into this second potential, because right now the forecast is focused on this Midwest aspect.

Now, it's not just one model forecast showing this storm, no matter how reputed the model is. Ensemble sets are now picking up on this storm potential as well. This image shows 850 millibar temperature forecasts as well as sea level pressure forecasts. The blue colors begin the freezing line, and all areas north of that first light blue layer are in the preferred snowfall potential region. The GFS Ensembles pictured above for Day 10 show this storm system, but it is considerably further north of the European model and American model. If you are suddenly throwing out your snowfall potential after seeing this ensemble image, please do not. This is one ensemble set, and while they can be defined as more likely to be valid, it's just one set of ensembles. There are many more, and we will keep showing them below.

This image, again valid for Day 10, is from the GGEM Ensemble set, which is the ensemble set of the Canadian weather model. For this reason, we will be calling this image the Canadian ensemble set. The Canadian ensembles are further south and slower than the American ensemble set, American model and European model. Why? Well, to start, the Canadian model itself is a bad model, so its ensembles will be tainted. If you are going to discard one solution of all the forecasts I show in this post, I suggest discarding this one, just because it is based off of a very unreliable model.

Now, this is a very big set of ensembles that you really want to have on your side. This is the 850 millibar temperature forecast and mean sea level pressure forecast from the North American Ensemble Forecasting System, or NAEFS Ensembles. This system combines the Canadian and American weather agencies to bring together a set of ensembles that is known to be very reliable, at least with temperature forecasts. The NAEFS Ensemble set has the system in northwest Ohio at Hour 240. This does appear to be in line with the American Ensembles, maybe the European model as well if we were able to go further into the future, but this is as far as the European model can go. The NAEFS Ensembles would give snowfall to Michigan, probably other Midwestern cities as well. Further analysis of the NAEFS Ensembles reveals that Chicago, Milwaukee and other Midwestern cities would indeed get some snow from this event; the amounts are TBD.

This is a forecast image of the ECMWF model's snowfall forecast to Day 10. It does not show the full snow event, because Day 10 is as far as the model goes. However, from this image alone, we can see amounts over a half foot of snow across wide swaths of the Midwest and the Plains. This is a very interesting forecast, because the model is again a very reliable model. I will be watching this model (and other models and ensembles, for that matter) very closely in coming days, because this event has been being picked up by the GFS model for several days now.


I took a look over a few atmospheric indices for this time period, and the thing I'm not liking is the potential for low pressure to become stagnant over the West Coast. If this were to happen, the storm system in question could take a track that may either go through the Gulf Coast or into the Northern Plains. Some forecasts have been suggesting this storm takes a more suppressed track down through the Gulf Coast, and this track is not out of the question. However, if this stagnant low pressure anomaly in the West US gets itself in the right place, high pressure may form in the Southeast US and push the storm in a track similar to what the European, NAEFS and other forecast systems are showing. We will get a much better picture of this event in coming days as the models come to a consensus.


For now, things are looking so-so for a storm in the Midwest, with some crucial caveats still unresolved.


Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Levi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits

GFS is a bit farther east. Wouldn't take much more of a shift to get the GEM solution (see below). [link to twitter.com]

4 hLevi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits

GEM solution is no picnic for northern New England: [link to twitter.com]

4 hLevi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits

GFS+GEM corrected towards each other on tonight's 0z runs. Nor'easter farther west in Gulf of Maine. Disturbance in southern branch is key

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @accu_adrienne: Hey Orlando. Cold front is on the way! Highs today are in the mid 80s.. By Friday, you're only in the mid 60s!

That should expire very soon. The storm is now over the Atlantic with Marine warning.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

AMZ354-374-131330-
/O.CON.KCHS.MA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130213T1330Z/
729 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EST FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY...
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM...

AT 729 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35 KNOTS... FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF 41008 TO 6 MILES WEST OF
41008...MOVING EAST AT 50 KT.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT MARINE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INDICATED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS...STEEP AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN AND BLOWING SPRAY. BE SURE ALL PASSENGERS ARE WEARING
APPROVED PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICES. TURN ON BILGE PUMPS.

Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index Wednesday, Feb. 13

Thunderstorms with heavy rain, isolated damaging gusts and tornadoes in southeast and east-central AL, central and south GA, central and east FL panhandle, north and central FL peninsula, southeast third of SC. A chance of morning hail in northwest GA.

TOR:CON
AL east-central, southeast - 3
FL central, east panhandle - 3
FL north, central peninsula - 2 to 3
GA east-central, southeast - 4
GA southwest, west-central - 3
GA northwest - less than 2
SC south - 4
SC northeast - 3
Thursday, Feb. 14

So when is Philly's best chance at getting more than a dusting, and is there any chance it could happen DURING THE WORK WEEK?!?!?

All we've had is weekend storms! Or rain while Boston gets 3 fucking feet!

LOL that of storm weekend is good... the next one will be on sunday/monday... it's early to say for shure how it will be

On the local Ct. news this morning they are reporting both potential storms are going out to sea, is this accurate? Is it possible we will have another major storm here? Our schools are still out due to the blizzard, roads are improving, parking lots are insane.