932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 07:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather Winds of change will come east the next several days as a shot of cold air seeps southward out of Canada. [link to ow.ly] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus Here's what the weekend is looking like now: 1-3" snow Sat/Sun. After that, a sharp cold front will restrict high temps to 25-35F Sun/Mon. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus Biggest impact of wknd storm will be *cold* temps. NYC highs in upper 20s/low 30s Sun + winds ~40mph will result in wind chills near zero. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus Sat storm: Models have been back and forth so much -- but for now most of storm's energy looks to head to Vermont/Nova Scotia -- not NYC. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! 000 FXUS62 KTAE 141107 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 607 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2013 .NEAR TERM [Today]... Broad troughing through the middle and upper levels sprawl the entire CONUS this morning. At the surface, the Tri-state region lies between two cold fronts. The main front, with the sharpest temperature and dewpoint gradient, lies across north-central Florida, while a weaker reinforcing essentially bisects the CWA. Behind the secondary front, high pressure is overspreading the Southeast. Light showers, being supported by a low/mid level shortwave trough axis, are ongoing ahead of the secondary front. Expect the low QPF showers to remain confined to the southeast Big Bend and Apalachee Bay through the day. The rather solid upper level cloud deck will likely persist through much of the afternoon, not beginning to clear our western counties until late this afternoon. Thus, with the clouds not expected to diminish any time soon, cool temperatures are expected this afternoon. Have lowered the expected max temperatures this morning to show much of the Tri-State region lingering in the middle to upper 50s. The 60 degree mark may be realized across portions of southeast Alabama where sunshine will be allowed in once the clouds clear this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]... The broad trough (including a slightly out-of-phase southern stream) over much of the CONUS is forecast to become much more phased and sharper as a polar vortex becomes centered over the Great Lakes by Friday night. The deep long wave trough will translate quickly eastward over the eastern CONUS on Saturday. This type of pattern is associated with arctic intrusions, something we haven`t had so far this mild winter. For tonight, the rain band (currently affecting the southern half of our forecast area) will finally exit our forecast area. Although the airmass across our forecast area isn`t especially cold, conditions will still be favorable enough for fairly strong radiational cooling, and patchy frost is possible in the normally colder, inland sites away from the cities. On Friday, a dry arctic cold front will begin approaching our region from the northwest. Skies will remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s (near average). The cold front will pass southeastward through the area late Friday night and Saturday morning, ushering in much colder, drier air for the weekend. With model consensus 850 mb temperatures well below freezing over much of the forecast area Saturday, and areas of clouds, the MOS from all the models seem too warm (mid to upper 50s). Our forecast highs are at least 5 deg cooler than MOS consensus, and could still be a bit warm depending on (a) how much cloud cover there is and (b) whether or not the main thrust of cold air gets shunted slightly to our east (which has happened several times so far this winter). Most of the NWP guidance shows enough moisture and Q-G forcing (ahead of the long wave trough axis) for an increase in clouds Saturday behind the cold front. Of these solutions, the 00 UTC NAM has the most impressive moisture/omega fields. It`s possible that a brief snow flurry or two could occur in our Southeast AL or South GA zones before the trough axis passes by later in the day. However, any impact from this would be negligible (limited deep layer moisture and relatively warm surface temperatures). It`s just a bit of a curiosity at this point. && .LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]... The long term guidance is in reasonable agreement on a deep trough amplifying across the eastern states on Saturday. The main impact for the local area will be the potential for a freeze on Saturday night and Sunday night. The next potential for a widespread rain is expected to come with another cold front around Tuesday. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! FXUS62 KTAE 141107 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 607 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2013 .NEAR TERM [Today]... Broad troughing through the middle and upper levels sprawl the entire CONUS this morning. At the surface, the Tri-state region lies between two cold fronts. The main front, with the sharpest temperature and dewpoint gradient, lies across north-central Florida, while a weaker reinforcing essentially bisects the CWA. Behind the secondary front, high pressure is overspreading the Southeast. Light showers, being supported by a low/mid level shortwave trough axis, are ongoing ahead of the secondary front. Expect the low QPF showers to remain confined to the southeast Big Bend and Apalachee Bay through the day. The rather solid upper level cloud deck will likely persist through much of the afternoon, not beginning to clear our western counties until late this afternoon. Thus, with the clouds not expected to diminish any time soon, cool temperatures are expected this afternoon. Have lowered the expected max temperatures this morning to show much of the Tri-State region lingering in the middle to upper 50s. The 60 degree mark may be realized across portions of southeast Alabama where sunshine will be allowed in once the clouds clear this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]... The broad trough (including a slightly out-of-phase southern stream) over much of the CONUS is forecast to become much more phased and sharper as a polar vortex becomes centered over the Great Lakes by Friday night. The deep long wave trough will translate quickly eastward over the eastern CONUS on Saturday. This type of pattern is associated with arctic intrusions, something we haven`t had so far this mild winter. For tonight, the rain band (currently affecting the southern half of our forecast area) will finally exit our forecast area. Although the airmass across our forecast area isn`t especially cold, conditions will still be favorable enough for fairly strong radiational cooling, and patchy frost is possible in the normally colder, inland sites away from the cities. On Friday, a dry arctic cold front will begin approaching our region from the northwest. Skies will remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s (near average). The cold front will pass southeastward through the area late Friday night and Saturday morning, ushering in much colder, drier air for the weekend. With model consensus 850 mb temperatures well below freezing over much of the forecast area Saturday, and areas of clouds, the MOS from all the models seem too warm (mid to upper 50s). Our forecast highs are at least 5 deg cooler than MOS consensus, and could still be a bit warm depending on (a) how much cloud cover there is and (b) whether or not the main thrust of cold air gets shunted slightly to our east (which has happened several times so far this winter). Most of the NWP guidance shows enough moisture and Q-G forcing (ahead of the long wave trough axis) for an increase in clouds Saturday behind the cold front. Of these solutions, the 00 UTC NAM has the most impressive moisture/omega fields. It`s possible that a brief snow flurry or two could occur in our Southeast AL or South GA zones before the trough axis passes by later in the day. However, any impact from this would be negligible (limited deep layer moisture and relatively warm surface temperatures). It`s just a bit of a curiosity at this point. && .LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]... The long term guidance is in reasonable agreement on a deep trough amplifying across the eastern states on Saturday. The main impact for the local area will be the potential for a freeze on Saturday night and Sunday night. The next potential for a widespread rain is expected to come with another cold front around Tuesday. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore Both GFS and EURO have more #snow for northeast this weekend. GFS more robust especially with mid-Atlantic: [link to wxcaster4.com] … |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus NYC's current active winter weather pattern continues next week, with two more possible storms Wed (mostly rain) and next Sat (mostly snow). |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34380974 Portugal 02/14/2013 09:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Eric Holthaus‏@EricHolthaus Next Tue/Wed's storm looks to track north of NYC, so prob rain. Next Fri/Sat storm is prob a bigger snow threat. Both trackable for now. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 18339838 United States 02/14/2013 11:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore Quoting: Luisport Both GFS and EURO have more #snow for northeast this weekend. GFS more robust especially with mid-Atlantic: [link to wxcaster4.com] … Great thanks guess I will get ready we had 3 feet last week, side roads are still awful main roads mostly one lane, another 6-8 isn't good. |
Crazy Harriet User ID: 16501830 United States 02/14/2013 12:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! and when all that snow melts in the spring rains...... "I would rather take a political risk in pursuit of peace, than risk peace in pursuit of politics." - Donald Trump |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34410272 Portugal 02/14/2013 05:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34410272 Portugal 02/14/2013 05:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Applied my crayons to the Canadian snowfall accumulations: thru 3.5-days [link to twitter.com] 57 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue New Canadian Model (upgraded) shows dual low situation at +5.5 days. [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34410272 Portugal 02/14/2013 05:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana & Ohio may get travel-disrupting snow Mon-Tues: [link to ow.ly] |
kaz User ID: 18339838 United States 02/14/2013 05:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Quoting: Luisport In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)] Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend? Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8.. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34410272 Portugal 02/14/2013 05:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Quoting: Luisport In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)] Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend? Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8.. well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday |
kaz User ID: 18339838 United States 02/14/2013 05:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Quoting: Luisport In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)] Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend? Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8.. well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday I am getting a big glass of wine and laughing my arse off!! We are being told 3 inches tomorrow afternoon into Sat. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34410272 Portugal 02/14/2013 05:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Quoting: Luisport In parallel universe of medium-range prediction, ECMWF is best model currently in use. 10-day snow estimates huge. [link to twitter.com (secure)] Okay great, I live right in the light greenish part in Ct., thanks for the updates, so what do you think we can expect over the weekend? Our local guys are now saying 1-3 this weekend Cantore is 6-8.. well lets wait untill saturday... this will hit sunday, monday and maby tuesday I am getting a big glass of wine and laughing my arse off!! We are being told 3 inches tomorrow afternoon into Sat. Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore 18z GFS pushes bulk of weekend storm out to sea. HOWEVER, it leaves some interesting chances for #SNOW in EAST CENTRAL VA and NC #NCwx #VAwx |
kaz User ID: 18339838 United States 02/14/2013 05:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34410272 Portugal 02/14/2013 05:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! ABC6 News Desk‏@ABC6 After the storm, it turns very cold and windy Sunday, with highs in the 20s & wind chills near zero to finish the weekend on a wintry note. 2 minABC6 News Desk‏@ABC6 Southern New England Weather Update.. Coastal storm could bring several inches of snow this weekend, especially Sat. night into Sun. morning |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 18380705 United States 02/14/2013 06:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Makenake User ID: 30656597 United States 02/14/2013 06:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 11:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue GFS 12z really bombs out the coastal low. 1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs, getting into the historical territory. [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 11:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue NAVGEM (Navy) model has #bomb cyclone over New England as well. 972 mb [link to twitter.com] 12 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue @ColdWaterMaine newly upgraded Canadian model dumps all over you pic. [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 11:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 11:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Canadian Model snowfall totals closer to foot for New England, a lot more in Canada, of course. [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 11:43 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Interesting to see how much of this GFS estimated snow actually arrives for the Carolinas Saturday morning/midday. [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 11:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 11:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 34458887 Portugal 02/15/2013 12:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 932 mb Extratropical Monster Storm to Northeast !!! GFS 12z bombs out coastal low.1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs getting historical territory!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Curious little low along West Coast, snow for California. [link to twitter.com] 10 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue GFS 12z 7-day forecast snow totals -- lots of frozen hydrometeors [link to twitter.com] |