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Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?

 
Who is Blue Fairy

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
John 14:27
"Peace I leave with you, my peace I give unto you: not as the world giveth, give I unto you. Let not your heart be troubled, neither let it be afraid."
Da fuq

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02/13/2013 05:35 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
OH MY GOD!

LOOK:

[link to www7.pic-upload.de]


hiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34310411


Ok so we have TWO near earth objects DA 2012 is about 10 football field lengths, and the object trailing it is 2 and a half football lengths long. Sounds rather Deep Impact doesn't it?
 Quoting: skyblau


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

That is supposed to be Mercury. wtf




Last Edited by Da fuq on 02/13/2013 05:36 PM
Who is Blue Fairy

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Is it still headed close? Or straight for us now?
John 14:27
"Peace I leave with you, my peace I give unto you: not as the world giveth, give I unto you. Let not your heart be troubled, neither let it be afraid."
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/13/2013 05:46 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
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Who is Blue Fairy

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So is the "uncertainty" greater than the "miss us by this much" calculation?
John 14:27
"Peace I leave with you, my peace I give unto you: not as the world giveth, give I unto you. Let not your heart be troubled, neither let it be afraid."
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2013 06:14 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Is it still headed close? Or straight for us now?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


duck down reeaaal low its bound to miss then hidinghidingbanana2banana2banana2
Dr. AstroModerator
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So is the "uncertainty" greater than the "miss us by this much" calculation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Hell no. The uncertainty is extremely tiny at this point. Directionality is also important when considering the uncertainty. For 2012 DA14 it has never been in a direction that would allow for an impact on this encounter.
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tommar

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02/13/2013 06:24 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Ok, I just wanna ask:

So, you know it's current trajectory and speed, and it is easy to draw a straight line and say it is gonna miss, but if it's size and WEIGHT are unknown, how the hell can anybody predict influence of either Earths or Moon's gravity on it's trajectory?
5-7-10-12-15-25-32
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Ok, I just wanna ask:

So, you know it's current trajectory and speed, and it is easy to draw a straight line and say it is gonna miss, but if it's size and WEIGHT are unknown, how the hell can anybody predict influence of either Earths or Moon's gravity on it's trajectory?
 Quoting: tommar


What the hell is with all the physics fails around here? The mass of the asteroid DOES NOT MATTER! It is irrelevant! I didn't just draw a straight line, I accounted for the gravity of earth and the moon as well! The gravitational acceleration of the planets on the asteroid is the same regardless of its mass! Its mass is so many orders of magnitude smaller than any planet that it can be completely ignored from the calculations! Hammer and feather experiment on the moon, look it up, it's the same exact principle at work here.
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02/13/2013 06:40 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
The Japanese hae a saying...

Duty is heavier than a mountain
Death is lighter than a feather


Dr. Astro, are you saying, that on the moon, both would accelerate due to gravity at the same rate?
tommar

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Ok, I just wanna ask:

So, you know it's current trajectory and speed, and it is easy to draw a straight line and say it is gonna miss, but if it's size and WEIGHT are unknown, how the hell can anybody predict influence of either Earths or Moon's gravity on it's trajectory?
 Quoting: tommar


What the hell is with all the physics fails around here? The mass of the asteroid DOES NOT MATTER! It is irrelevant! I didn't just draw a straight line, I accounted for the gravity of earth and the moon as well! The gravitational acceleration of the planets on the asteroid is the same regardless of its mass! Its mass is so many orders of magnitude smaller than any planet that it can be completely ignored from the calculations! Hammer and feather experiment on the moon, look it up, it's the same exact principle at work here.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro



Ha, ha, one more simplified question (Bear with me, my school days are way behind me):

Wouldn't Earth's gravity change trajectory of the lighter object more than the heavier one? (Lets not mix mass and weight)
5-7-10-12-15-25-32
Reality420

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02/13/2013 08:43 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
The Japanese hae a saying...

Duty is heavier than a mountain
Death is lighter than a feather


Dr. Astro, are you saying, that on the moon, both would accelerate due to gravity at the same rate?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21903530

Anyone who understands the least little bit about gravity knows that they accelerate at the same rate.




Ha, ha, one more simplified question (Bear with me, my school days are way behind me):

Wouldn't Earth's gravity change trajectory of the lighter object more than the heavier one? (Lets not mix mass and weight)
 Quoting: tommar

No it wouldn't except in woowooland.
Do you know the difference between weight and mass?



(sigh)
Basic High School Physics for those that missed it:

Force:
#1) F = ma
#2) F = GMm/r^2
where: a = acceleration due to gravity of the masses
G = a constant of proportionality.
r = distance between the masses
M = Primary mass (the Earth in this case)
m = Secondary mass (the asteroid in this case)

Using the concept that M>>>>>m (the mass of Earth is much, much greater than the mass of the asteroid)
Set #1 & #2 equal:
ma = GMm/r^2
Find the acceleration of the asteroid, m:
divide both sides by m:
#3) a = GM/r^2
It is now clear that the acceleration due to gravity on the asteroid m is independent of its mass m since m cancels out.
It is only dependent on the mass of the Primary (Earth) M and the distance between the two masses r.
The mass of the asteroid is not even in equation #3 for its acceleration in the gravitational field, therefore the rate at which it falls toward the earth does not depend on its mass.



Where the mass of the asteroid does have an effect is in r.
r is actually the distance of each mass from the center-of-mass of the system (barycenter).
The Earth masses at ~6.00xE^24 kg.
If the asteroid massed at 1 Billion tonnes then its mass = 1.0xE^12 kg
(This would be the mass of a 230m asteroid made of pure gold.)
(If DA14 is 70meters and stoney then its mass is ~500000 tonnes; much, much less than a billion)

The center-of-mass of the system is:
6E^24/(6E^24 + 1E^12) = 99.99999999998333333333333% of the center-to-center value of r.

Therefore, an asteroid with a mass of 1 Billion metric tonnes compared to an asteroid with 0 tonnes mass would only induce an error of:
1 - (0.9999999999998333333333333)^2 = 3.333333333333722222222222e-11%
= 0.00000000003333333333333722222222222%
Three-hundred-billionths of one percent error.

Understand why mass is inconsequential unless the object is a substantial fraction of the mass of the system?
Probably not, but that won't deter you from arguing from ignorance against scientists who learned this in 11th grade and have since gone on to university to get Ph.D.s.
ergo - Arrogant Ignorance.

Class dismissed.
Next...
Remedial Reading For Comprehension.


R.
Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions.
-- attributed to Thomas Jefferson

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ODA_062

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02/13/2013 09:09 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652



This!
Halcyon Dayz, FCD
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02/13/2013 09:48 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652

This!
 Quoting: ODA_062

If you magically replaced the Earth with a bowling ball, would its orbit change?
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It rots the mind and blackens the heart.


Hi! My name is Halcyon Dayz and I'm addicted to morans.
Dr. AstroModerator
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
The Japanese hae a saying...

Duty is heavier than a mountain
Death is lighter than a feather


Dr. Astro, are you saying, that on the moon, both would accelerate due to gravity at the same rate?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21903530

Anyone who understands the least little bit about gravity knows that they accelerate at the same rate.




Ha, ha, one more simplified question (Bear with me, my school days are way behind me):

Wouldn't Earth's gravity change trajectory of the lighter object more than the heavier one? (Lets not mix mass and weight)
 Quoting: tommar

No it wouldn't except in woowooland.
Do you know the difference between weight and mass?



(sigh)
Basic High School Physics for those that missed it:

Force:
#1) F = ma
#2) F = GMm/r^2
where: a = acceleration due to gravity of the masses
G = a constant of proportionality.
r = distance between the masses
M = Primary mass (the Earth in this case)
m = Secondary mass (the asteroid in this case)

Using the concept that M>>>>>m (the mass of Earth is much, much greater than the mass of the asteroid)
Set #1 & #2 equal:
ma = GMm/r^2
Find the acceleration of the asteroid, m:
divide both sides by m:
#3) a = GM/r^2
It is now clear that the acceleration due to gravity on the asteroid m is independent of its mass m since m cancels out.
It is only dependent on the mass of the Primary (Earth) M and the distance between the two masses r.
The mass of the asteroid is not even in equation #3 for its acceleration in the gravitational field, therefore the rate at which it falls toward the earth does not depend on its mass.



Where the mass of the asteroid does have an effect is in r.
r is actually the distance of each mass from the center-of-mass of the system (barycenter).
The Earth masses at ~6.00xE^24 kg.
If the asteroid massed at 1 Billion tonnes then its mass = 1.0xE^12 kg
(This would be the mass of a 230m asteroid made of pure gold.)
(If DA14 is 70meters and stoney then its mass is ~500000 tonnes; much, much less than a billion)

The center-of-mass of the system is:
6E^24/(6E^24 + 1E^12) = 99.99999999998333333333333% of the center-to-center value of r.

Therefore, an asteroid with a mass of 1 Billion metric tonnes compared to an asteroid with 0 tonnes mass would only induce an error of:
1 - (0.9999999999998333333333333)^2 = 3.333333333333722222222222e-11%
= 0.00000000003333333333333722222222222%
Three-hundred-billionths of one percent error.

Understand why mass is inconsequential unless the object is a substantial fraction of the mass of the system?
Probably not, but that won't deter you from arguing from ignorance against scientists who learned this in 11th grade and have since gone on to university to get Ph.D.s.
ergo - Arrogant Ignorance.

Class dismissed.
Next...
Remedial Reading For Comprehension.


R.
 Quoting: Reality420


epicwin
astrobanner2
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


On the 10th for perspective.
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Mercury has no moons correct? [link to en.wikipedia.org] Interesting
 Quoting: Da fuq


:lolbears:
 Quoting: Da fuq


Bwahahahahahaha
Anonymous Coward
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02/13/2013 10:26 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Published: 03 March, 2012,

NASA's data shows the 60-meter asteroid, spotted by Spanish stargazers in February, will whistle by Earth in 11 months. Its trajectory will bring it within a hair’s breadth of our planet, raising fears of a possible collision.

The asteroid, known as DA14, will pass by our planet in February 2013 at a distance of under 27,000 km (16,700 miles). This is closer than the geosynchronous orbit of some satellites.

There is a possibility the asteroid will collide with Earth, but further calculation is required to estimate the potential threat and work out how to avert possible disaster, NASA expert Dr. David Dunham told students at Moscow’s University of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM).

To read the rest of the article:

[link to rt.com]
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Published: 03 March, 2012,

NASA's data shows the 60-meter asteroid, spotted by Spanish stargazers in February, will whistle by Earth in 11 months. Its trajectory will bring it within a hair’s breadth of our planet, raising fears of a possible collision.

The asteroid, known as DA14, will pass by our planet in February 2013 at a distance of under 27,000 km (16,700 miles). This is closer than the geosynchronous orbit of some satellites.

There is a possibility the asteroid will collide with Earth, but further calculation is required to estimate the potential threat and work out how to avert possible disaster, NASA expert Dr. David Dunham told students at Moscow’s University of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM).

To read the rest of the article:

[link to rt.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5762158


A) There was no possibility of impact with earth on Feb 15 2013 even back in March 2012, though there was a possibility at later dates
B) That article is from March 2012. We have lots more astrometric data now than we did back then.
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02/13/2013 10:53 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652
if they did they wouldn't tell us..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31781644


You don't need "they" to tell you, you can do the calculations for yourself and confirm it.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


assuming the numbers "they" give us are correct.
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So Astro, what's your latest take on the situation?
 Quoting: Who is Blue Fairy


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Ok, I just wanna ask:

So, you know it's current trajectory and speed, and it is easy to draw a straight line and say it is gonna miss, but if it's size and WEIGHT are unknown, how the hell can anybody predict influence of either Earths or Moon's gravity on it's trajectory?
 Quoting: tommar


What the hell is with all the physics fails around here? The mass of the asteroid DOES NOT MATTER! It is irrelevant! I didn't just draw a straight line, I accounted for the gravity of earth and the moon as well! The gravitational acceleration of the planets on the asteroid is the same regardless of its mass! Its mass is so many orders of magnitude smaller than any planet that it can be completely ignored from the calculations! Hammer and feather experiment on the moon, look it up, it's the same exact principle at work here.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


If mass does not affect it then what does? distance maybe?idk, how much closer would it have to be to be captured by earths gravity? what i'm asking is what would have to be different?
Keneh
dummee
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02/13/2013 11:00 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What are the odds they have calculated its "speed"(not gravitational acceleration) but rather its rate of speed in the heavens as we speak...and could this affect trajectory?
Just curious and trying to get schooled a bit here, thanks
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652
if they did they wouldn't tell us..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31781644


You don't need "they" to tell you, you can do the calculations for yourself and confirm it.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


assuming the numbers "they" give us are correct.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9107938


Nope. You don't have to use "their" numbers, you can use astrometry from amateur astronomers. I did.
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


Still the same. The latest astrometric data is right in line with where the asteroid should be.
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Ok, I just wanna ask:

So, you know it's current trajectory and speed, and it is easy to draw a straight line and say it is gonna miss, but if it's size and WEIGHT are unknown, how the hell can anybody predict influence of either Earths or Moon's gravity on it's trajectory?
 Quoting: tommar


What the hell is with all the physics fails around here? The mass of the asteroid DOES NOT MATTER! It is irrelevant! I didn't just draw a straight line, I accounted for the gravity of earth and the moon as well! The gravitational acceleration of the planets on the asteroid is the same regardless of its mass! Its mass is so many orders of magnitude smaller than any planet that it can be completely ignored from the calculations! Hammer and feather experiment on the moon, look it up, it's the same exact principle at work here.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


If mass does not affect it then what does? distance maybe?idk, how much closer would it have to be to be captured by earths gravity? what i'm asking is what would have to be different?
 Quoting: Keneh


It would have to pass so close that it passes through our atmosphere enough to aerobrake it into orbit. That may not even be possible given its velocity relative to earth, and the required delta-V may not be achievable without either deliberate maneuvering during the encounter or without destroying the rock due to aerodynamic forces.
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What are the odds they have calculated its "speed"(not gravitational acceleration) but rather its rate of speed in the heavens as we speak...and could this affect trajectory?
Just curious and trying to get schooled a bit here, thanks
 Quoting: dummee 34367260


Speed relative to what? You can derive that for any given frame of reference from the calculated orbital elements.
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02/13/2013 11:24 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


Ok, I just wanna ask:

So, you know it's current trajectory and speed, and it is easy to draw a straight line and say it is gonna miss, but if it's size and WEIGHT are unknown, how the hell can anybody predict influence of either Earths or Moon's gravity on it's trajectory?
 Quoting: tommar


What the hell is with all the physics fails around here? The mass of the asteroid DOES NOT MATTER! It is irrelevant! I didn't just draw a straight line, I accounted for the gravity of earth and the moon as well! The gravitational acceleration of the planets on the asteroid is the same regardless of its mass! Its mass is so many orders of magnitude smaller than any planet that it can be completely ignored from the calculations! Hammer and feather experiment on the moon, look it up, it's the same exact principle at work here.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


If mass does not affect it then what does? distance maybe?idk, how much closer would it have to be to be captured by earths gravity? what i'm asking is what would have to be different?
 Quoting: Keneh


It would have to pass so close that it passes through our atmosphere enough to aerobrake it into orbit. That may not even be possible given its velocity relative to earth, and the required delta-V may not be achievable without either deliberate maneuvering during the encounter or without destroying the rock due to aerodynamic forces.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So your saying its like a bullet and its going to fast, correct?
Keneh
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I don't think it will hit us. It doesn't mean that Astro is right either. I'm willing to bet he'll use this fail as credit to his genius mind. These rocks are getting closer and closer. It's a matter of time before its in Earths orbit and Gurantee the Goverment won't tell us when it is.
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


What the hell is with all the physics fails around here? The mass of the asteroid DOES NOT MATTER! It is irrelevant! I didn't just draw a straight line, I accounted for the gravity of earth and the moon as well! The gravitational acceleration of the planets on the asteroid is the same regardless of its mass! Its mass is so many orders of magnitude smaller than any planet that it can be completely ignored from the calculations! Hammer and feather experiment on the moon, look it up, it's the same exact principle at work here.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


If mass does not affect it then what does? distance maybe?idk, how much closer would it have to be to be captured by earths gravity? what i'm asking is what would have to be different?
 Quoting: Keneh


It would have to pass so close that it passes through our atmosphere enough to aerobrake it into orbit. That may not even be possible given its velocity relative to earth, and the required delta-V may not be achievable without either deliberate maneuvering during the encounter or without destroying the rock due to aerodynamic forces.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So your saying its like a bullet and its going to fast, correct?
 Quoting: Keneh

Yes.
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Im not sure, ima dummee...was hoping you could tell me.
What are they or you basing the figures of speed on now?
Thought id read somewhere it was traveling around 17000 some odd/even mph.
How is that determined?
What if its wrong?
Effect things?
Don't affect things?
dummee
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Is it or is it not all theoretical in the end? Even right down to where our methods for figuring these equations come from?
I've always been curious this...
Keneh

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Im not sure, ima dummee...was hoping you could tell me.
What are they or you basing the figures of speed on now?
Thought id read somewhere it was traveling around 17000 some odd/even mph.
How is that determined?
What if its wrong?
Effect things?
Don't affect things?
 Quoting: dummee 34367260


I read its like 5 miles per second
Keneh

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