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Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?

 
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/13/2013 11:51 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Im not sure, ima dummee...was hoping you could tell me.
What are they or you basing the figures of speed on now?
Thought id read somewhere it was traveling around 17000 some odd/even mph.
How is that determined?
What if its wrong?
Effect things?
Don't affect things?
 Quoting: dummee 34367260


You can derive the speed for a given frame of reference from the orbital elements. We know those elements to very high precision at this point. If it were wrong, they elements wouldn't fit the observational data we already have.
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Is it or is it not all theoretical in the end? Even right down to where our methods for figuring these equations come from?
I've always been curious this...
 Quoting: dummee 34367260


Orbital mechanics are extremely well validated. If they didn't work, we'd never be able to rendezvous two spacecraft in orbit.
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phoenixe

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02/13/2013 11:52 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652



This!
 Quoting: ODA_062


please. read Dr Astro´s posts on this thread before asking the same question over and over again.

size/mass doesn´t matter - and weight doesn´t matter either, as whatever they estimate right now is just slight aberrants from the former estimations;
even if they did err by factor 3 on this, it still would not have any significant effects on its path or impact probability.

Last Edited by Doomina on 02/13/2013 11:56 PM
euphoni

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02/14/2013 12:23 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Anybody know where and when an impact would occur, if one did?
Good > Bad
Kristina

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02/14/2013 12:25 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What time is this supposed to go by us? (I'm in central time zone.)
DOOM better not interrupt my Walking Dead!!
ADO

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02/14/2013 12:26 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
The Japanese hae a saying...

Duty is heavier than a mountain
Death is lighter than a feather


Dr. Astro, are you saying, that on the moon, both would accelerate due to gravity at the same rate?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21903530

Anyone who understands the least little bit about gravity knows that they accelerate at the same rate.




Ha, ha, one more simplified question (Bear with me, my school days are way behind me):

Wouldn't Earth's gravity change trajectory of the lighter object more than the heavier one? (Lets not mix mass and weight)
 Quoting: tommar

No it wouldn't except in woowooland.
Do you know the difference between weight and mass?



(sigh)
Basic High School Physics for those that missed it:

Force:
#1) F = ma
#2) F = GMm/r^2
where: a = acceleration due to gravity of the masses
G = a constant of proportionality.
r = distance between the masses
M = Primary mass (the Earth in this case)
m = Secondary mass (the asteroid in this case)

Using the concept that M>>>>>m (the mass of Earth is much, much greater than the mass of the asteroid)
Set #1 & #2 equal:
ma = GMm/r^2
Find the acceleration of the asteroid, m:
divide both sides by m:
#3) a = GM/r^2
It is now clear that the acceleration due to gravity on the asteroid m is independent of its mass m since m cancels out.
It is only dependent on the mass of the Primary (Earth) M and the distance between the two masses r.
The mass of the asteroid is not even in equation #3 for its acceleration in the gravitational field, therefore the rate at which it falls toward the earth does not depend on its mass.



Where the mass of the asteroid does have an effect is in r.
r is actually the distance of each mass from the center-of-mass of the system (barycenter).
The Earth masses at ~6.00xE^24 kg.
If the asteroid massed at 1 Billion tonnes then its mass = 1.0xE^12 kg
(This would be the mass of a 230m asteroid made of pure gold.)
(If DA14 is 70meters and stoney then its mass is ~500000 tonnes; much, much less than a billion)

The center-of-mass of the system is:
6E^24/(6E^24 + 1E^12) = 99.99999999998333333333333% of the center-to-center value of r.

Therefore, an asteroid with a mass of 1 Billion metric tonnes compared to an asteroid with 0 tonnes mass would only induce an error of:
1 - (0.9999999999998333333333333)^2 = 3.333333333333722222222222e-11%
= 0.00000000003333333333333722222222222%
Three-hundred-billionths of one percent error.

Understand why mass is inconsequential unless the object is a substantial fraction of the mass of the system?
Probably not, but that won't deter you from arguing from ignorance against scientists who learned this in 11th grade and have since gone on to university to get Ph.D.s.
ergo - Arrogant Ignorance.

Class dismissed.
Next...
Remedial Reading For Comprehension.


R.
 Quoting: Reality420


So, you re saying that the mass of the earth (and the moon)is perfectly known (must be), in order to calculate the exact effect on a unknown (tiny) mass of an object. And the way to calculate that perfect number is the same formula you are quoting to determinate the effect of that mass, with a constant G, calculated about 250 years ago, and accepted as standard way to set the earth mass about 50 years ago. So pretty circular mathematical and tautological phd bullshit. Im not saying the thing will hit, far from that, but the arrogance of the so called experts is annoying to say the least. You can´t even see the light of the stars in space, so how can you say a formula established on earth works in a different, very different enviroment??
ADO
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02/14/2013 12:27 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What part of the planet will it be closer to at it's closest approach?
phoenixe

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02/14/2013 12:32 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652

This!
 Quoting: ODA_062

If you magically replaced the Earth with a bowling ball, would its orbit change?
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD


yes, but as i am not good in numbers and don´t know the weigt of a bowling ball,
if you put a bowling ball with the mass of a typical bowling ball at our earths place in the universe,and this asteroid comes its way, something would change.
Keneh

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02/14/2013 12:39 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What part of the planet will it be closer to at it's closest approach?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27768994


Sumatra

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

Last Edited by Keneh on 02/14/2013 12:40 AM
Keneh
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02/14/2013 12:45 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What time is this supposed to go by us? (I'm in central time zone.)
 Quoting: Kristina


I think it's 7:24 pm our time so that's about 2:30 pm ET.

My computer is too slow to google at the moment.
Kristina

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02/14/2013 12:46 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What time is this supposed to go by us? (I'm in central time zone.)
 Quoting: Kristina


I think it's 7:24 pm our time so that's about 2:30 pm ET.

My computer is too slow to google at the moment.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20756371


Thank you!
DOOM better not interrupt my Walking Dead!!
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 12:48 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Asteroid DA14 is but a footnote, if even that. To get excited about it makes about as much sense as believing extraterrestrials will be landing on the front lawn of the White House tomorrow morning.
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 12:50 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago.. What is the actual impact risk of tomorrow's flyby? All I've read is "zero chance" and "near-zero chance". What is the actual percentage?

Also the increase in size does seem weird.. Does this normally happen with other newly discovered asteroids as they approach near earth? I understand that I've been told that 'the numbers' mention that there is no/near impossible chance of impact. However, this is still the first event of this kind (closest, largest) to be observed with the technology we've developed in recent history.
Keneh

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago.. What is the actual impact risk of tomorrow's flyby? All I've read is "zero chance" and "near-zero chance". What is the actual percentage?

Also the increase in size does seem weird.. Does this normally happen with other newly discovered asteroids as they approach near earth? I understand that I've been told that 'the numbers' mention that there is no/near impossible chance of impact. However, this is still the first event of this kind (closest, largest) to be observed with the technology we've developed in recent history.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


at one point it was 1 in 3300 but i dont know what it is now
Keneh
Reality420

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02/14/2013 12:53 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
***** snip *****
 Quoting: Reality420


So, you re saying that the mass of the earth (and the moon)is perfectly known (must be), in order to calculate the exact effect on a unknown (tiny) mass of an object. And the way to calculate that perfect number is the same formula you are quoting to determinate the effect of that mass, with a constant G, calculated about 250 years ago, and accepted as standard way to set the earth mass about 50 years ago. So pretty circular mathematical and tautological phd bullshit. Im not saying the thing will hit, far from that, but the arrogance of the so called experts is annoying to say the least. You can´t even see the light of the stars in space, so how can you say a formula established on earth works in a different, very different enviroment??
 Quoting: ADO


This isn't the most Arrogantly Ignorant post I've seen on GLP but it does rate a Dishonourable Mention.


R.
Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions.
-- attributed to Thomas Jefferson

"Reality420 has a sick blood lust.
His attacks are calculated and well
Planned
in advance."
-- Sissyboy crying that I'm too knowledgeable and prepared for him to debate, leaving no option but to ban me and place me on his "enemies list".
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 12:54 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What time is this supposed to go by us? (I'm in central time zone.)
 Quoting: Kristina


I think it's 7:24 pm our time so that's about 2:30 pm ET.

My computer is too slow to google at the moment.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20756371


Thank you!
 Quoting: Kristina


:) It will give you rough idea. Give or take a few minutes.
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 12:57 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago.. What is the actual impact risk of tomorrow's flyby? All I've read is "zero chance" and "near-zero chance". What is the actual percentage?

Also the increase in size does seem weird.. Does this normally happen with other newly discovered asteroids as they approach near earth? I understand that I've been told that 'the numbers' mention that there is no/near impossible chance of impact. However, this is still the first event of this kind (closest, largest) to be observed with the technology we've developed in recent history.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


What they said at the press conference it definitely wouldn't hit us but there was a small but unlikely chance it could hit a satellite.

It's never happened before in our technological era so we will have to wait and see. It's between us and the moon. It must be a danger zone.

Strange they have taken their site down. I don't know about the increase in size. I know it is moving fast.
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 01:02 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago.. What is the actual impact risk of tomorrow's flyby? All I've read is "zero chance" and "near-zero chance". What is the actual percentage?

Also the increase in size does seem weird.. Does this normally happen with other newly discovered asteroids as they approach near earth? I understand that I've been told that 'the numbers' mention that there is no/near impossible chance of impact. However, this is still the first event of this kind (closest, largest) to be observed with the technology we've developed in recent history.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


at one point it was 1 in 3300 but i dont know what it is now
 Quoting: Keneh


looooool if this is true, guess what the odds of making a royal flush at the poker table is?
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 01:04 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago.. What is the actual impact risk of tomorrow's flyby? All I've read is "zero chance" and "near-zero chance". What is the actual percentage?

Also the increase in size does seem weird.. Does this normally happen with other newly discovered asteroids as they approach near earth? I understand that I've been told that 'the numbers' mention that there is no/near impossible chance of impact. However, this is still the first event of this kind (closest, largest) to be observed with the technology we've developed in recent history.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


at one point it was 1 in 3300 but i dont know what it is now
 Quoting: Keneh


looooool if this is true, guess what the odds of making a royal flush at the poker table is?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20791108


the risk data is still on the wiki for now:
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 01:05 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
OH MY GOD!

LOOK:

[link to www7.pic-upload.de]


hiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34310411


Ok so we have TWO near earth objects DA 2012 is about 10 football field lengths, and the object trailing it is 2 and a half football lengths long. Sounds rather Deep Impact doesn't it?
 Quoting: skyblau


[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

That is supposed to be Mercury. wtf



 Quoting: Da fuq


yodayodayodayodayodayodayoda
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 01:08 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago.. What is the actual impact risk of tomorrow's flyby? All I've read is "zero chance" and "near-zero chance". What is the actual percentage?

Also the increase in size does seem weird.. Does this normally happen with other newly discovered asteroids as they approach near earth? I understand that I've been told that 'the numbers' mention that there is no/near impossible chance of impact. However, this is still the first event of this kind (closest, largest) to be observed with the technology we've developed in recent history.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


at one point it was 1 in 3300 but i dont know what it is now
 Quoting: Keneh


looooool if this is true, guess what the odds of making a royal flush at the poker table is?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20791108


the risk data is still on the wiki for now:
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34334671


thanks for the link guess ill have a gander, on another note a quick google search. gave me a link from nov 28th of 2012, says chances of hitting the powerball are 1 in 175,711,536. now this number ofc will have alot of variance, but it still wont change that its a huge number. people do hit it, only thing you can really be sure of is you wont be told ahead of time and its nothing to get worked up about. it is what it is. one thing id think about is maybe not so much if it hit, but the effects of something this close to earth, we know that the moon effects the tides etc, could see some strange weather at the very least.
Reality420

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02/14/2013 01:10 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What part of the planet will it be closer to at it's closest approach?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27768994


Google Map of path on 15 Feb 2013:
[link to maps.google.com]

Map Legend:

Point, Time(UT) - Distance from Earth's surface km*
A) 18:00 - 42766
B) 18:15 - 38496
C) 18:30 - 34705
D) 18:45 - 31553
E) 19:00 - 29229
F) 19:15 - 27918
G) 19:24:42 - 27672 - Closest Approach
H) 19:30 - 27746
I) 19:45 - 28732
J) 20:00 - 30776
K) 20:15 - 33705
L) 20:30 - 37327
M) 20:45 - 41471
N) 21:00 - 46001

*Used an average earth radius of 6378 km.

Have fun.


R.
Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions.
-- attributed to Thomas Jefferson

"Reality420 has a sick blood lust.
His attacks are calculated and well
Planned
in advance."
-- Sissyboy crying that I'm too knowledgeable and prepared for him to debate, leaving no option but to ban me and place me on his "enemies list".
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/14/2013 01:15 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


I thought they took it down a while ago actually. They always do that for asteroids whose risk of impact in the foreseeable future (~100 years) is eliminated. There is no risk of impact on Friday and thanks to the latest astrometric data, there's no risk of impact in our lifetimes.
astrobanner2
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02/14/2013 01:16 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


I thought they took it down a while ago actually. They always do that for asteroids whose risk of impact in the foreseeable future (~100 years) is eliminated. There is no risk of impact on Friday and thanks to the latest astrometric data, there's no risk of impact in our lifetimes.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Evidence?
Axslinger

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What part of the planet will it be closer to at it's closest approach?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27768994


The ground
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/14/2013 01:34 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


I thought they took it down a while ago actually. They always do that for asteroids whose risk of impact in the foreseeable future (~100 years) is eliminated. There is no risk of impact on Friday and thanks to the latest astrometric data, there's no risk of impact in our lifetimes.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Evidence?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22948885


[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]
"As the set of available observations for a given object grows we are often able to rule out previous potential impacts as no longer consistent with the observations. The following table gives a listing of such objects for which all previously detected potential impacts have been eliminated.
Last Updated Feb 13, 2013

Object
Designation Date/Time Removed (UTC)
YYYY-MM-DD hh:mm
2012 DA14 2013-02-14 00:05"

So they did remove it today/yesterday depending on where you live. Felt like it had been gone longer than that to me but I guess not. Could be because 00:05 UT was actually the 13th from my location. Anyway, this is how things work in orbital determination, and I know from first hand experience calculating the orbit of this particular asteroid at various times over the past year that we now have a far more certain determination of its future position than we did last year.
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02/14/2013 01:40 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


I thought they took it down a while ago actually. They always do that for asteroids whose risk of impact in the foreseeable future (~100 years) is eliminated. There is no risk of impact on Friday and thanks to the latest astrometric data, there's no risk of impact in our lifetimes.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


It was on there earlier today, sorry I should add that they were only the 2080-21xx flybys, not for any prior. Thanks for your reply, there are many baseless arguments that people continue to make regarding a 2012 DA14 impact. Especially since they are aware that this is a 'record-breaking' flyby, therefore never properly observed. Which leads people, who are not educated in astronomy to question the information that they receive.

Also, regarding the mass of the asteroid.. Are you saying that it is important to place it in proportion to the earth? For example a 1,000,000,000 kg asteroid (~240m I think someone said) looks scary compared to 100,000,000 kg (maybe under 40m??), when really in proportion to the Earth that asteroid is 1.67e-17 compared to 1.67e-16 of size. Which basically means a nano size increase in the gravity effects from Earth? Is this right?
Cornelius234

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02/14/2013 01:44 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
They are steering it to impact earth!! [link to blogdogcicle.blogspot.ca]
Cornelius
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

NASA seems to have pulled down their page on 2012 DA14's impact risks only about an hour ago..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29759371


I thought they took it down a while ago actually. They always do that for asteroids whose risk of impact in the foreseeable future (~100 years) is eliminated. There is no risk of impact on Friday and thanks to the latest astrometric data, there's no risk of impact in our lifetimes.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


You're highly annoying..,,,,
Cornelius234

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02/14/2013 01:48 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
[link to blogdogcicle.blogspot.ca]

"The asteroid is going to hit Earth" - message decoded from NASA data - Elites secretly bunkering down
Cornelius

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