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Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?

 
Children of the Atom

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02/14/2013 07:58 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So is it true, its diameter was really not 47m but really 65m?

Might want to rerun them calcs astroshillery
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 08:24 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
watch this :

2012 DA14 is zion D ei(A) one for(4) ....mayan day 14 !!

5arockon
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02/14/2013 08:27 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
But hey, just to prove you wrong again, you're on. I'm not even going to be 5% off.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Just to remind Recollector he's already on the hook for his 5% bet.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Ok, it's on than.

Nothing more to talk about this until we have the official data after he passes.


Isn't interesting that I didn't yet called you names, like you did like 20 times?

I understand that you know that you are right...but seriously, calling people names is not what I expected from a PhDer.
 Quoting: recollector


Academic achievments give no bearing to a persons level of morality
G3
G3

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02/14/2013 08:42 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So is it true, its diameter was really not 47m but really 65m?

Might want to rerun them calcs astroshillery
 Quoting: Children of the Atom


oh shit
recollector

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02/14/2013 08:50 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This asteroid passes Earth every year...since 4,5 billion yars ago.

It passes so close, that it can be discovered with 1950's tech.

YET, a spanish amateur discovered it...in 2012.

Well, officially he did, since only idiots can believe that NASA didn't dicovered like 30 years ago.

They just didn't tell about it...

I wonder why. /sarcasm

Last Edited by recollector on 02/14/2013 08:50 AM
recollector
Voiper

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02/14/2013 09:02 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
YET, a spanish amateur discovered it...in 2012.

 Quoting: recollector


The Spanish Amateurs name wouldn't happen to be "Wolf Biederman" would it?
1rof1
"Become Kindness >>> Kindness Becomes"
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 09:04 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This asteroid passes Earth every year...since 4,5 billion yars ago.

It passes so close, that it can be discovered with 1950's tech.

YET, a spanish amateur discovered it...in 2012.

Well, officially he did, since only idiots can believe that NASA didn't dicovered like 30 years ago.

They just didn't tell about it...

I wonder why. /sarcasm
 Quoting: recollector


Exactly the same I'm thinking. An asteroid very close to earth collision discovered by an spanish amateur and not by NASA who spent millions for searching asteroids. ???????????????????????????????????

sheeplebah
Children of the Atom

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02/14/2013 09:13 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This asteroid passes Earth every year...since 4,5 billion yars ago.

It passes so close, that it can be discovered with 1950's tech.

YET, a spanish amateur discovered it...in 2012.

Well, officially he did, since only idiots can believe that NASA didn't dicovered like 30 years ago.

They just didn't tell about it...

I wonder why. /sarcasm
 Quoting: recollector


Exactly the same I'm thinking. An asteroid very close to earth collision discovered by an spanish amateur and not by NASA who spent millions for searching asteroids. ???????????????????????????????????

sheeplebah
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34382404



oh and NASA says the diameter is 51m
Da fuq

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02/14/2013 09:14 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So is it true, its diameter was really not 47m but really 65m?

Might want to rerun them calcs astroshillery
 Quoting: Children of the Atom


oh shit
 Quoting: G3


You know they got the trajectory right though, I mean how hard can it be?
Children of the Atom

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02/14/2013 09:15 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Supposedly...


1.8e+08 kilograms = 180,000.000 kilograms

180,000,000kg = ~396,832,071 pounds

~396,832,071 pounds = ~198,416 Tons

So is it true, its diameter was really not 47m but really 65m?

Might want to rerun them calcs astroshillery
 Quoting: Children of the Atom


oh shit
 Quoting: G3


You know they got the trajectory right though, I mean how hard can it be?
 Quoting: Da fuq




Joke, right? confused

Last Edited by Children of the Atom on 02/14/2013 09:16 AM
Da fuq

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02/14/2013 09:16 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
#sarcasm

Last Edited by Da fuq on 02/14/2013 09:17 AM
Children of the Atom

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02/14/2013 09:33 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Let's compare some things...

O.K, previous post I had mentioned that 2012 DA14 weighs ~396,832,071 pounds or 198,416 tons. What else can we compare this to, so that we may have a better understanding of it's true weight.

Well, what about the Saturn V rocket? It weighed 6,200,000 pounds - or merely 0.0156237372256135% of what 2012 DA14 weighs.

OK.

What else?

Well the weight of the ISS Space Station is a mere 990,000 pounds... or just 0.0024947580408641% of the weight of 2012 DA14.

Just some food for thought...

hf
Children of the Atom

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02/14/2013 09:38 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Oh and comparing this to Apophis is kind of funny...

Apophis weighs 53,147,152,000 pounds.

That means 2012 DA14 is merely 0.0074666667180962 the weight of Apophis...

chuckle
Waterbug

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02/14/2013 10:11 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This is all quite entertaining..

breaker
Artlicious

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02/14/2013 10:38 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I asked this question, for Astro, in another thread, but I thought I'd ask it here too incase he doesn't see the other one.

What about a magnetic pull? What if the asteroid is comprised of ferrous metals? Is there any chance it could pass through one of Earths magnetic field lines, one of opposing polarity, and get pulled in... or at least, alter it's course slightly?
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Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 10:45 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I asked this question, for Astro, in another thread, but I thought I'd ask it here too incase he doesn't see the other one.

What about a magnetic pull? What if the asteroid is comprised of ferrous metals? Is there any chance it could pass through one of Earths magnetic field lines, one of opposing polarity, and get pulled in... or at least, alter it's course slightly?
 Quoting: Artlicious


Yes, I was going to ask this question YESTERDAY!

Please respond Astro....
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 10:50 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This rock is estimated at 170,000 metric tons. The speed it is coming in and flying so close to earth it is without doubt a near miss, and the gravity space shear will create huge displacement of water from the oceans. All U.K military are on red alert for homeland emergency relief.
Halcyon Dayz, FCD
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02/14/2013 11:06 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

i hope it will hit so much,i really do i hope it hits
i hope it fucking opens that louisiana sinkhole and yellowstone so we all go fuck ourselves
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

That's sick.

people like you and astrofuck make me resent this reality
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

You don't even know what reality is.
book

But, we will see tomorrow, becasue I will bump this thread after the asteroid pases and official data is given, so that a PhD-er NEVER, EVER to assume thet he knows shit.
 Quoting: recollector

No, you won't.
Because you are wrong.

I will though.
Just to put you straight.
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

Another guy that thinks he is God, or at least Jesus, since Astro took the God place.
 Quoting: recollector

No.
We just know we're right.
We've got the data and the calculations.
All you have is hot air.

Some things can be know with perfect certainty. This is one of them.

As it seems, you support Astro calculation.
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Eyup.

Wanna bet that you might be also wrong? Let's say with 5% or more? And who loses to is an idiot and forever shut his mouth?
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Let's get serious.
How about €500.-

Or you are like Astro, a chicken?
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Let's make it a €1,000.- and the keys to your car.

You and Astro DON'T KNOW what I know !
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

You don't know shit.

You're a scientific illiterate, a frigging idiot, and and an arrogant moran.

This asteroid passes Earth every year...since 4,5 billion yars ago.
 Quoting: recollector

You don't know that.

This pass will significantly alter its orbit, it actually has to be reclassified.
For all we know it spend most of its lifetime in another part of the solar system

It passes so close, that it can be discovered with 1950's tech.
 Quoting: recollector

Can.
The sky is big though,and it's a teeny weeny pebble.

YET, a spanish amateur discovered it...in 2012.
 Quoting: recollector

Eyup.

Well, officially he did, since only idiots can believe that NASA didn't dicovered like 30 years ago.
They just didn't tell about it...
 Quoting: recollector

Ah, a conspiracy fantasy to handwave away the facts.

I wonder why. /sarcasm
 Quoting: recollector

Fantasies don't need explanations. Only facts do.
book

Exactly the same I'm thinking. An asteroid very close to earth collision discovered by an spanish amateur and not by NASA who spent millions for searching asteroids.
 Quoting: German Coward 34382404

An amateur with access to a really big telescope. (.45m)
Until recently most comets and asteroids were discovered by amateurs.
They have the advantage of having a lot more eyes on the sky than the pros.

After the NASA programmes the La Sagra Sky Survey is actually the most prolific discoverer of NEOs.
They've discovered 5.855 asteroids in total, 49 of them NEOs.
book

If the initial trajectory had been worked out for an object assumed to be 47m diameter, and now suddenly they say it is 65m diameter. Surely that will more than double the mass and the calculations would need to be thoroughly reworked?
 Quoting: Curious George 12825086

No.
It doesn't.

It's orbit is shaped by the gravity of the Sun and Earth.
It is to small to shape the orbit of Earth.

Which gets me back to the free-floating astronaut and the ISS which masses a 1,000 as much.
book

What about a magnetic pull? What if the asteroid is comprised of ferrous metals? Is there any chance it could pass through one of Earths magnetic field lines, one of opposing polarity, and get pulled in... or at least, alter it's course slightly?
 Quoting: Artlicious

No.
Earth's magnetic field is pathetic.
It can catch charged particles, not rocks.
book

G has been measured.
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

You even know what G is?? "has been measured"....no, it has been ESTIMATED...waaaaaaaaaaaaaay to different thing:
The accuracy of the measured value of G has increased only modestly since the original Cavendish experiment.
 Quoting: Chilean Coward 34327872

Foot. Meet bullet.
book

Why, oh why, are there so many morans?
Hatred is a cancer upon the world.
It rots the mind and blackens the heart.


Hi! My name is Halcyon Dayz and I'm addicted to morans.
Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 11:07 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This rock is estimated at 170,000 metric tons. The speed it is coming in and flying so close to earth it is without doubt a near miss, and the gravity space shear will create huge displacement of water from the oceans. All U.K military are on red alert for homeland emergency relief.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33940193


What is your source for the red alert?
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
02/14/2013 11:12 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This rock is estimated at 170,000 metric tons. The speed it is coming in and flying so close to earth it is without doubt a near miss, and the gravity space shear will create huge displacement of water from the oceans. All U.K military are on red alert for homeland emergency relief.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33940193


What is your source for the red alert?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8298598


enter-52.456009,-179.428711

here [link to maps.google.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
02/14/2013 11:14 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
This rock is estimated at 170,000 metric tons. The speed it is coming in and flying so close to earth it is without doubt a near miss, and the gravity space shear will create huge displacement of water from the oceans. All U.K military are on red alert for homeland emergency relief.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33940193


What is your source for the red alert?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8298598


enter-52.456009,-179.428711

here [link to maps.google.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33940193


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Artlicious

User ID: 16923663
United States
02/14/2013 11:19 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Here is a really intersting and informative article about how we can and one day should pull large asteroids into Earth orbit so that we can take advantage of the resouces they can provide.

[link to ramblingsonthefutureofhumanity.blogspot.com]
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ADO

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Chile
02/14/2013 11:21 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

i hope it will hit so much,i really do i hope it hits
i hope it fucking opens that louisiana sinkhole and yellowstone so we all go fuck ourselves
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

That's sick.

people like you and astrofuck make me resent this reality
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

You don't even know what reality is.
book

But, we will see tomorrow, becasue I will bump this thread after the asteroid pases and official data is given, so that a PhD-er NEVER, EVER to assume thet he knows shit.
 Quoting: recollector

No, you won't.
Because you are wrong.

I will though.
Just to put you straight.
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

Another guy that thinks he is God, or at least Jesus, since Astro took the God place.
 Quoting: recollector

No.
We just know we're right.
We've got the data and the calculations.
All you have is hot air.

Some things can be know with perfect certainty. This is one of them.

As it seems, you support Astro calculation.
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Eyup.

Wanna bet that you might be also wrong? Let's say with 5% or more? And who loses to is an idiot and forever shut his mouth?
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Let's get serious.
How about €500.-

Or you are like Astro, a chicken?
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Let's make it a €1,000.- and the keys to your car.

You and Astro DON'T KNOW what I know !
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

You don't know shit.

You're a scientific illiterate, a frigging idiot, and and an arrogant moran.

This asteroid passes Earth every year...since 4,5 billion yars ago.
 Quoting: recollector

You don't know that.

This pass will significantly alter its orbit, it actually has to be reclassified.
For all we know it spend most of its lifetime in another part of the solar system

It passes so close, that it can be discovered with 1950's tech.
 Quoting: recollector

Can.
The sky is big though,and it's a teeny weeny pebble.

YET, a spanish amateur discovered it...in 2012.
 Quoting: recollector

Eyup.

Well, officially he did, since only idiots can believe that NASA didn't dicovered like 30 years ago.
They just didn't tell about it...
 Quoting: recollector

Ah, a conspiracy fantasy to handwave away the facts.

I wonder why. /sarcasm
 Quoting: recollector

Fantasies don't need explanations. Only facts do.
book

Exactly the same I'm thinking. An asteroid very close to earth collision discovered by an spanish amateur and not by NASA who spent millions for searching asteroids.
 Quoting: German Coward 34382404

An amateur with access to a really big telescope. (.45m)
Until recently most comets and asteroids were discovered by amateurs.
They have the advantage of having a lot more eyes on the sky than the pros.

After the NASA programmes the La Sagra Sky Survey is actually the most prolific discoverer of NEOs.
They've discovered 5.855 asteroids in total, 49 of them NEOs.
book

If the initial trajectory had been worked out for an object assumed to be 47m diameter, and now suddenly they say it is 65m diameter. Surely that will more than double the mass and the calculations would need to be thoroughly reworked?
 Quoting: Curious George 12825086

No.
It doesn't.

It's orbit is shaped by the gravity of the Sun and Earth.
It is to small to shape the orbit of Earth.

Which gets me back to the free-floating astronaut and the ISS which masses a 1,000 as much.
book

What about a magnetic pull? What if the asteroid is comprised of ferrous metals? Is there any chance it could pass through one of Earths magnetic field lines, one of opposing polarity, and get pulled in... or at least, alter it's course slightly?
 Quoting: Artlicious

No.
Earth's magnetic field is pathetic.
It can catch charged particles, not rocks.
book

G has been measured.
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

You even know what G is?? "has been measured"....no, it has been ESTIMATED...waaaaaaaaaaaaaay to different thing:
The accuracy of the measured value of G has increased only modestly since the original Cavendish experiment.
 Quoting: Chilean Coward 34327872

Foot. Meet bullet.
book

Why, oh why, are there so many morans?
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

Yep, specially the ones can focus only on the exact words and not on the meaning of things quoting just the part of convenience. Get a brain, If you have two diferrent "scientific" measures that are exluyents between them, then you have an estimated, but for your tiny little brain maybe that´s too much of brain power to process...
ADO
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
02/14/2013 11:23 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If I was located on the West coast of America, Canada and the East coast of Japan up to Russia, I would be locating 100-200 miles inland to high ground.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/14/2013 11:27 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Truth is this thing could be 6.5km and going to make a direct earth impact. You would still be getting the same story from NASA.
No sense creating chaos.
ADO

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Chile
02/14/2013 11:29 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

i hope it will hit so much,i really do i hope it hits
i hope it fucking opens that louisiana sinkhole and yellowstone so we all go fuck ourselves
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

That's sick.

people like you and astrofuck make me resent this reality
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

You don't even know what reality is.
book

But, we will see tomorrow, becasue I will bump this thread after the asteroid pases and official data is given, so that a PhD-er NEVER, EVER to assume thet he knows shit.
 Quoting: recollector

No, you won't.
Because you are wrong.

I will though.
Just to put you straight.
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

Another guy that thinks he is God, or at least Jesus, since Astro took the God place.
 Quoting: recollector

No.
We just know we're right.
We've got the data and the calculations.
All you have is hot air.

Some things can be know with perfect certainty. This is one of them.

As it seems, you support Astro calculation.
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Eyup.

Wanna bet that you might be also wrong? Let's say with 5% or more? And who loses to is an idiot and forever shut his mouth?
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Let's get serious.
How about €500.-

Or you are like Astro, a chicken?
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

Let's make it a €1,000.- and the keys to your car.

You and Astro DON'T KNOW what I know !
 Quoting: Croatian Coward 34374280

You don't know shit.

You're a scientific illiterate, a frigging idiot, and and an arrogant moran.

This asteroid passes Earth every year...since 4,5 billion yars ago.
 Quoting: recollector

You don't know that.

This pass will significantly alter its orbit, it actually has to be reclassified.
For all we know it spend most of its lifetime in another part of the solar system

It passes so close, that it can be discovered with 1950's tech.
 Quoting: recollector

Can.
The sky is big though,and it's a teeny weeny pebble.

YET, a spanish amateur discovered it...in 2012.
 Quoting: recollector

Eyup.

Well, officially he did, since only idiots can believe that NASA didn't dicovered like 30 years ago.
They just didn't tell about it...
 Quoting: recollector

Ah, a conspiracy fantasy to handwave away the facts.

I wonder why. /sarcasm
 Quoting: recollector

Fantasies don't need explanations. Only facts do.
book

Exactly the same I'm thinking. An asteroid very close to earth collision discovered by an spanish amateur and not by NASA who spent millions for searching asteroids.
 Quoting: German Coward 34382404

An amateur with access to a really big telescope. (.45m)
Until recently most comets and asteroids were discovered by amateurs.
They have the advantage of having a lot more eyes on the sky than the pros.

After the NASA programmes the La Sagra Sky Survey is actually the most prolific discoverer of NEOs.
They've discovered 5.855 asteroids in total, 49 of them NEOs.
book

If the initial trajectory had been worked out for an object assumed to be 47m diameter, and now suddenly they say it is 65m diameter. Surely that will more than double the mass and the calculations would need to be thoroughly reworked?
 Quoting: Curious George 12825086

No.
It doesn't.

It's orbit is shaped by the gravity of the Sun and Earth.
It is to small to shape the orbit of Earth.

Which gets me back to the free-floating astronaut and the ISS which masses a 1,000 as much.
book

What about a magnetic pull? What if the asteroid is comprised of ferrous metals? Is there any chance it could pass through one of Earths magnetic field lines, one of opposing polarity, and get pulled in... or at least, alter it's course slightly?
 Quoting: Artlicious

No.
Earth's magnetic field is pathetic.
It can catch charged particles, not rocks.
book

G has been measured.
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD

You even know what G is?? "has been measured"....no, it has been ESTIMATED...waaaaaaaaaaaaaay to different thing:
The accuracy of the measured value of G has increased only modestly since the original Cavendish experiment.
 Quoting: Chilean Coward 34327872

Foot. Meet bullet.
book

Why, oh why, are there so many morans?
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD


But the best quote is this: "the electromagnetic field is pathetic" oficially, you´re a retard.
ADO
Artlicious

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02/14/2013 11:33 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
What about a magnetic pull? What if the asteroid is comprised of ferrous metals? Is there any chance it could pass through one of Earths magnetic field lines, one of opposing polarity, and get pulled in... or at least, alter it's course slightly?
 Quoting: Artlicious

No.
Earth's magnetic field is pathetic.
It can catch charged particles, not rocks.
book
 Quoting: Halcyon Dayz, FCD


Thanks,

I'be been doing some reading on this.

[link to www.wisegeek.com]



"30-60 microteslas for the Earth's magnetic field may not sound like a lot, but when you take into account the total volume of the field, its total energy is extremely large, much larger than any magnetic field generated artificially."

"Magnetic pull? No *way.* Magnetic forces such as that decrease as 1/r^4, and even on earth they are barely enough to swing a compass"

I figure NASA scientists calculate the impact probability for many asteroids, taking in account all the unknowns they can think of (which includes all the things you and I could think off, and a lot more). However I also think they would keep the truth hidden, if one was expected to hit. Unless they could say exactly where it would hit.. then maybe they would tell us to evacuate. Especially for one what isn't "that big" on the grand scale of things.


So yeah, magnetic pull won't effect it anymore than possibly causing it to roll one way or the other..

Last Edited by Artlicious on 02/14/2013 11:43 AM
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Anonymous Coward
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02/14/2013 11:48 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Here is a really intersting and informative article about how we can and one day should pull large asteroids into Earth orbit so that we can take advantage of the resouces they can provide.

[link to ramblingsonthefutureofhumanity.blogspot.com]
 Quoting: Artlicious


ill grab the catchers mit bruh.
Anonymous Coward
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Japan
02/14/2013 11:53 AM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I can't be bothered to read all the posts. Is it going to hit us or not?
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/14/2013 11:54 AM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So is it true, its diameter was really not 47m but really 65m?

Might want to rerun them calcs astroshillery
 Quoting: Children of the Atom


Its size is irrelevant to the trajectory. The former is estimated based on the absolute magnitude with an assumed albedo. Depending on the true albedo it could be smaller or larger than the estimation. By my calcs it could be 47m or it could even be a bit larger than 65m, all the way up to about 89 meters depending on albedo.
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