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Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?

 
Dr. Astro
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02/12/2013 02:48 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
So then if the size is bigger and the original size they said would effect a 750 mile area imagine what a bigger size would effect?? Of course though astromut says it wont hit so I guess we believe him, however if they were wrong at NASA on size then how do we know they were not wrong on where its going?? Of course if they were wrong they wouldn't tell us would they??
 Quoting: pmb1


No they won't... They don't know anything more than you and me and the astroDR. They just hope that it won't hit.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


Yes, actually people like me and those at NASA do know more than you.

 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So why didn't you genious didn't estimate the actual size before?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


The size is irrelevant, but you can see the absolute magnitude figure (H) in the orbital elements that I calculated for it. Currently the absolute magnitude calculated is about 24.1 according to the minor planet center, about the same from NASA.
Diameter = 1329/Sqrt(albedo) * 10^(-.2*H)
All diameter estimates are based on an assumption of the asteroid's albedo. This generally ranges from about .05 to .25. If we go with an average of about .15, then the asteroid's diameter is about 51 meters. If we assume it's a very dark asteroid, about as dark as fresh asphalt with an albedo of 0.05, then the asteroid is potentially about 89 meters wide. We'll have a much firmer determination of the size from radar observations that will start on the 16th. Generally you can expect it to be less than 100 meters wide, nominally about 51 meters. Spaceweather may be weighing the various photometric measurements in some way that yields a brighter absolute magnitude however.
astrobanner2
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I had another one of my infamous "There's a 1000ft. tsunami coming!" dreams AGAINNN lastnight.

This time I was in a boat (why the fuck) and the classic flipping over of the boat started happening. Breaking my body on the ceiling, on the floor, water pouring in.

Anybody wanna go dreaming with me sometime? It's a fucking blast.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 02:51 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


No they won't... They don't know anything more than you and me and the astroDR. They just hope that it won't hit.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


Yes, actually people like me and those at NASA do know more than you.

 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So why didn't you genious didn't estimate the actual size before?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


The size is irrelevant, but you can see the absolute magnitude figure (H) in the orbital elements that I calculated for it. Currently the absolute magnitude calculated is about 24.1 according to the minor planet center, about the same from NASA.
Diameter = 1329/Sqrt(albedo) * 10^(-.2*H)
All diameter estimates are based on an assumption of the asteroid's albedo. This generally ranges from about .05 to .25. If we go with an average of about .15, then the asteroid's diameter is about 51 meters. If we assume it's a very dark asteroid, about as dark as fresh asphalt with an albedo of 0.05, then the asteroid is potentially about 89 meters wide. We'll have a much firmer determination of the size from radar observations that will start on the 16th. Generally you can expect it to be less than 100 meters wide, nominally about 51 meters. Spaceweather may be weighing the various photometric measurements in some way that yields a brighter absolute magnitude however.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


OK, Dr, You still hope that it won't hit the earth after all that calculations.....
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 02:54 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


Of course it is possible. Think about it, well.
Dr. Astro
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02/12/2013 02:55 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


Yes, actually people like me and those at NASA do know more than you.

 Quoting: Dr. Astro


So why didn't you genious didn't estimate the actual size before?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


The size is irrelevant, but you can see the absolute magnitude figure (H) in the orbital elements that I calculated for it. Currently the absolute magnitude calculated is about 24.1 according to the minor planet center, about the same from NASA.
Diameter = 1329/Sqrt(albedo) * 10^(-.2*H)
All diameter estimates are based on an assumption of the asteroid's albedo. This generally ranges from about .05 to .25. If we go with an average of about .15, then the asteroid's diameter is about 51 meters. If we assume it's a very dark asteroid, about as dark as fresh asphalt with an albedo of 0.05, then the asteroid is potentially about 89 meters wide. We'll have a much firmer determination of the size from radar observations that will start on the 16th. Generally you can expect it to be less than 100 meters wide, nominally about 51 meters. Spaceweather may be weighing the various photometric measurements in some way that yields a brighter absolute magnitude however.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


OK, Dr, You still hope that it won't hit the earth after all that calculations.....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


No, I know it won't. I don't "hope" it won't. That's for you to do since you haven't done the math.
astrobanner2
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02/12/2013 02:56 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I had another one of my infamous "There's a 1000ft. tsunami coming!" dreams AGAINNN lastnight.

This time I was in a boat (why the fuck) and the classic flipping over of the boat started happening. Breaking my body on the ceiling, on the floor, water pouring in.

Anybody wanna go dreaming with me sometime? It's a fucking blast.
 Quoting: Mister Obvious


oh good God, is that a genuine offer?

i'm THERE!!!

5a
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02/12/2013 02:57 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I had another one of my infamous "There's a 1000ft. tsunami coming!" dreams AGAINNN lastnight.

This time I was in a boat (why the fuck) and the classic flipping over of the boat started happening. Breaking my body on the ceiling, on the floor, water pouring in.

Anybody wanna go dreaming with me sometime? It's a fucking blast.
 Quoting: Mister Obvious


I dreamed I met a pterodactyl last night...weird
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 02:58 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I wonder how that feels a planet hitting another one when you are on the opposid side of one.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34250665


I would imagine that initially the impact would thrust the whole planet sideways several hundred or thousand miles flinging everything everywhere violently and then the ground would have the consistency of water from being pulverized,and then a giant super heated air blast thousands of degrees F. would circle the globe killing everything.And depending on the size of the other planet,probably would turn the crust and mantle of earth into molten magma.Not a good day.
 Quoting: PC FREE


That is what happened after I ate some bad food the other day. Good times.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 02:58 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


So why didn't you genious didn't estimate the actual size before?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


The size is irrelevant, but you can see the absolute magnitude figure (H) in the orbital elements that I calculated for it. Currently the absolute magnitude calculated is about 24.1 according to the minor planet center, about the same from NASA.
Diameter = 1329/Sqrt(albedo) * 10^(-.2*H)
All diameter estimates are based on an assumption of the asteroid's albedo. This generally ranges from about .05 to .25. If we go with an average of about .15, then the asteroid's diameter is about 51 meters. If we assume it's a very dark asteroid, about as dark as fresh asphalt with an albedo of 0.05, then the asteroid is potentially about 89 meters wide. We'll have a much firmer determination of the size from radar observations that will start on the 16th. Generally you can expect it to be less than 100 meters wide, nominally about 51 meters. Spaceweather may be weighing the various photometric measurements in some way that yields a brighter absolute magnitude however.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


OK, Dr, You still hope that it won't hit the earth after all that calculations.....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


No, I know it won't. I don't "hope" it won't. That's for you to do since you haven't done the math.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


ohyeah Dr, you'll be hero, but you don't know anything at the moment.
Waterbug

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02/12/2013 02:58 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
The bigger this thing actually is, the more Earth pulls it closer...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7707807


Isn't it just the opposite?
 Quoting: tommar


M1 attracts M2

and M2 attracts M1 reciprocally

So if M2 mass was larger then the attraction is greater between the two.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 203352


Negated by increased momentum.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 02:59 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652
if they did they wouldn't tell us..
Dr. Astro
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


The size is irrelevant, but you can see the absolute magnitude figure (H) in the orbital elements that I calculated for it. Currently the absolute magnitude calculated is about 24.1 according to the minor planet center, about the same from NASA.
Diameter = 1329/Sqrt(albedo) * 10^(-.2*H)
All diameter estimates are based on an assumption of the asteroid's albedo. This generally ranges from about .05 to .25. If we go with an average of about .15, then the asteroid's diameter is about 51 meters. If we assume it's a very dark asteroid, about as dark as fresh asphalt with an albedo of 0.05, then the asteroid is potentially about 89 meters wide. We'll have a much firmer determination of the size from radar observations that will start on the 16th. Generally you can expect it to be less than 100 meters wide, nominally about 51 meters. Spaceweather may be weighing the various photometric measurements in some way that yields a brighter absolute magnitude however.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


OK, Dr, You still hope that it won't hit the earth after all that calculations.....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


No, I know it won't. I don't "hope" it won't. That's for you to do since you haven't done the math.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


ohyeah Dr, you'll be hero, but you don't know anything at the moment.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


Evidently I know a lot more than you at the moment. I've done the calculations for myself. It will not hit. The uncertainty region of the asteroid's position does not even come close to overlapping earth. There is no possibility of impact.
astrobanner2
Dr. Astro
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02/12/2013 03:00 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If they can not estimate the size correctly, how can we believe that they estimated the exact path?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652
if they did they wouldn't tell us..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31781644


You don't need "they" to tell you, you can do the calculations for yourself and confirm it.
astrobanner2
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02/12/2013 03:00 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
The bigger this thing actually is, the more Earth pulls it closer...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7707807


Isn't it just the opposite?
 Quoting: tommar


M1 attracts M2

and M2 attracts M1 reciprocally

So if M2 mass was larger then the attraction is greater between the two.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 203352


Negated by increased momentum.
 Quoting: Waterbug


no every mass fall at the same speed, it will change it's speed and trajectory after passing earth, but maybe not that much
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 03:02 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


OK, Dr, You still hope that it won't hit the earth after all that calculations.....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


No, I know it won't. I don't "hope" it won't. That's for you to do since you haven't done the math.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


ohyeah Dr, you'll be hero, but you don't know anything at the moment.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33891652


Evidently I know a lot more than you at the moment. I've done the calculations for myself. It will not hit. The uncertainty region of the asteroid's position does not even come close to overlapping earth. There is no possibility of impact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


ohyeah
Waterbug

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02/12/2013 03:03 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
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Isn't it just the opposite?
 Quoting: tommar


M1 attracts M2

and M2 attracts M1 reciprocally

So if M2 mass was larger then the attraction is greater between the two.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 203352


Negated by increased momentum.
 Quoting: Waterbug


no every mass fall at the same speed, it will change it's speed and trajectory after passing earth, but maybe not that much
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34240632


It is moving laterally, not falling.. speed times mass=momentum or force of impact..the earth falls out from under it due to the curvature of the planet.

Last Edited by Waterbug on 02/12/2013 03:04 PM
El Tiburon

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02/12/2013 03:04 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If we don't know the size, we don't know the mass and we don't know the composition. Therefore we can only guess at it's trajectory once it interacts with our Earth-Moon system...

I would hope the margin of error includes possible extremes and are not anchored in a guessed median.

Maybe IRAN will save us with it's new Space Plane?
pmb1

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02/12/2013 03:08 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
However there is something I forgot to ask about. Does this bring up the chances of it hitting satellites? It is bigger then they at first thought?? So wouldn't that make it easier for it to hit the satellites or space junk?
Dr. Astro
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02/12/2013 03:09 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If we don't know the size, we don't know the mass and we don't know the composition. Therefore we can only guess at it's trajectory once it interacts with our Earth-Moon system...
 Quoting: El Tiburon

No, its mass and composition are irrelevant to its trajectory. Its mass is negligible relative to earth, and it will experience the same amount of acceleration from earth's gravity regardless of how much mass it has.
astrobanner2
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02/12/2013 03:09 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
I had another one of my infamous "There's a 1000ft. tsunami coming!" dreams AGAINNN lastnight.

This time I was in a boat (why the fuck) and the classic flipping over of the boat started happening. Breaking my body on the ceiling, on the floor, water pouring in.

Anybody wanna go dreaming with me sometime? It's a fucking blast.
 Quoting: Mister Obvious


I just got chills reading about your dream.

*shivers*
tommar

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02/12/2013 03:10 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
...


Isn't it just the opposite?
 Quoting: tommar


M1 attracts M2

and M2 attracts M1 reciprocally

So if M2 mass was larger then the attraction is greater between the two.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 203352


Negated by increased momentum.
 Quoting: Waterbug


no every mass fall at the same speed, it will change it's speed and trajectory after passing earth, but maybe not that much
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34240632


cheers
5-7-10-12-15-25-32
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 03:21 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
5a I should have a hell of a view.... fridaynight

I'm starting the nightshift and I'm 5 stories high 5a

stoner
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02/12/2013 03:23 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
If we don't know the size, we don't know the mass and we don't know the composition. Therefore we can only guess at it's trajectory once it interacts with our Earth-Moon system...
 Quoting: El Tiburon

No, its mass and composition are irrelevant to its trajectory. Its mass is negligible relative to earth, and it will experience the same amount of acceleration from earth's gravity regardless of how much mass it has.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Hey, Astro: My cat just threw up a hairball. Any chance there's a correlation between that and the possibility of Asteroid 2012 DA14 hitting the Earth?
Requiemdream (Ghost)

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02/12/2013 03:34 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
5a I should have a hell of a view.... fridaynight

I'm starting the nightshift and I'm 5 stories high 5a

stoner
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1335118


It's Friday in the NL already? You are high!
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S0L4RN1GHTM4R3

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02/12/2013 03:39 PM

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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Dr. Astro, how can you possibly say that the mass of object B doesn't matter? I'm quite sure it does, it's simple physics.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."

John F. Kennedy
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02/12/2013 03:51 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Okay, FWIW, I have a problem with the so called experts here.

I have a close family member who is a retired engineer (Redstone). He would never be so bold as to make 100% predictions or say things like "math never lies". Anytime we have talked about events over the years he would always put his .02 in but throw out a caveat about unexpected variables.

Anytime you make a prediction based on a mathematical model, you cannot completely predict the variable that nature plays. If you could, then we would have 100% forecasts every time.

So, I'm a little leery when someone says something will "never" happen as opposed to saying something is "unlikely" to happen.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 03:56 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
it will come and go just like the elenin nonsense, fuck all happened
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 03:56 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
the really trouble in path equations in my opinion can just come from unpredicted random variables... for example what happen if the sun will hit the asteroid with a huge flare while approaching ? wtf
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 03:57 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Astro, please post your mathematical equations that determine your result.
Anonymous Coward
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02/12/2013 03:59 PM
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Re: Asteroid 2012 DA14 is getting bigger and bigger. WTF?
Oh, I also noticed a "Dr." in front of your name, do you have a PhD, if so, which field, published articles, etc.?

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