Major Flooding expected along the Lower Mississippi river!!! HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA!!!

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

The Jan. 29-30 #tornado outbreak in Middle TN was the 2nd largest on record, there, topped only by Apr. 3, 1974: [link to 1.usa.gov]

Weather Underground‏@wunderground

A #tornado watch will likely be issued soon in this Gulf Coast region: [link to 1.usa.gov]

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

#tornado watch coming up: [link to po.st] #alwx #mswx #flwx

Thank you for keeping people informed Luis. I don't think a lot of folks understand what is headed their way in the next few days. If weather patterns keep lining up, we are looking at another epic storm this weekend.

Wow..second time today I just got randomly logged out!

Yes, it seams it will be bad... you can count with me to update it!

New mesoscale discussion, tornado watch likely. Of course there is a 10% probability of tornadoes on the night that I get a lot of homework, sigh.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/ERN LA THROUGH SERN MS INTO SWRN AL AND THE
WRN FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 122135Z - 122300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 00Z.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW SW OF HEZ
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR BTR/MSY AND
THEN EWD ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS S OF MOB BEFORE CURVING ENEWD ONTO
THE FL PNHDL /N OF AAF/. A COLD FRONT TRAILED THE SURFACE LOW SWD
TO E OF LCH. OVER THE PAST HOUR...TSTMS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED
IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE N OF THE REGION.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MOST WIDESPREAD TSTMS DEVELOPMENT BECOMING
FOCUSED WELL TO THE N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL PARTS OF
MS AND AL. MOREOVER...RAPID-REFRESH AND 18Z NAM-DERIVED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WARM NOSE IN THE 700-550-MB LAYER WHICH MAY BE
PROHIBITING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT GROWTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT RENEWED HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL FOSTER AT LEAST
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z FROM S-CNTRL LA EWD INTO
FAR SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PNHDL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AND
MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 02/12/2013

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

i have to go now... please take care everyone!!!

[link to www.wunderground.com] [link to twitter.com (secure)] [link to twitter.com (secure)] [link to twitter.com]

Birmingham Radar shows parts of Alabama have had 19" of rain since it reset on Sunday. Wow.

000
FXUS62 KTAE 130333
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2013

...Slight risk of severe storms overnight along with potential for
heavy rain...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday Morning]...
Updated 1030pm.
Very well defined warm front is currently lifting north across
the forecast office. As of 03Z, the boundary stretched from near
Tifton westward through Geneva County in southeast Alabama. North
of the front, temperatures are in the mid 50s with northeast
winds. Just south of the front, temperatures rise into the lower
70s on gusty southerly winds. Dewpoints south of the front are
well into the upper 60s. Surface low is analyzed over southern
Mississippi. This low will lift northeast overnight, pushing the
warm front farther north. The trailing cold front will then cross
the area late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Combined with
the low level conditions, strong mid and upper level westerly flow
is generating a marginally favorable environment for severe storms
overnight.So far, deep convection has struggled to develop in the
warm sector, possibly owing to some weak large scale subsidence in
the wake of an exiting shortwave. This negative forcing may help
to limit the severe threat overnight. However, with the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment in place, any deep
convection that does develop will have the potential to produce
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and large hail.

Heavy rain will continue to be a concern overnight, especially for
saturated areas of the panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest
Georgia. Any additional rain in these areas could result in
additional flooding.

For the evening grid update, adjusted temperatures to account for
the warm frontal position. Also updated the PoP grids to account
for recent radar trends.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Montgomery, AL had 2.82 inches of rain on Tuesday, breaking the record of 1.95 inches set in 1984.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Strong thunderstorms possible today across southern GA and northern FL. We have the details: [link to ow.ly]

It's a bit early for this. SE Georgia [link to pbs.twimg.com]

Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC

Weather eye-candy for your Wednesday morning: 40 amazing photos of lightning - [link to gencept.com]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY...
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM...

* UNTIL 830 AM EST

* AT 653 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS...FROM SAPELO SOUND TO 7 NM NORTHWEST OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND...MOVING EAST AT 55 KT.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BUOY BL...SAPELO BUOY S...ALT BUOY...BUOY J...BUOY 41008 AND DRH
BUOY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS...STEEP AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN AND BLOWING SPRAY. BE SURE ALL PASSENGERS ARE WEARING
APPROVED PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICES. TURN ON BILGE PUMPS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index Wednesday, Feb. 13

Thunderstorms with heavy rain, isolated damaging gusts and tornadoes in southeast and east-central AL, central and south GA, central and east FL panhandle, north and central FL peninsula, southeast third of SC. A chance of morning hail in northwest GA.

TOR:CON
AL east-central, southeast - 3
FL central, east panhandle - 3
FL north, central peninsula - 2 to 3
GA east-central, southeast - 4
GA southwest, west-central - 3
GA northwest - less than 2
SC south - 4
SC northeast - 3
Thursday, Feb. 14

That should expire very soon. The storm is now over the Atlantic with Marine warning.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

AMZ354-374-131330-
/O.CON.KCHS.MA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130213T1330Z/
729 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EST FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY...
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM...

AT 729 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35 KNOTS... FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF 41008 TO 6 MILES WEST OF
41008...MOVING EAST AT 50 KT.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
SIGNIFICANT MARINE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INDICATED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS...STEEP AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN AND BLOWING SPRAY. BE SURE ALL PASSENGERS ARE WEARING
APPROVED PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICES. TURN ON BILGE PUMPS.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...LAKE WIND IMPACT...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LARGER LAKES.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
739 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM AND SAVANNAH GA TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR AND GRAYS
REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY

AMZ354-140345-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
739 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 35 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHERN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...

VALID 131338Z - 131445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 35 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 35 CONTINUES UNTIL 14Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW SUCH THAT WATCH
EXPIRATION IS PROBABLE. SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR MAY
CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN FL...ALTHOUGH
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN /AND UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM/.

DISCUSSION...INITIAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA HAVE NOW SPREAD EASTWARD OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 35 IN
VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM. THAT SAID...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BIT
FARTHER S/SW FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTH FL IN THE
VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SW-NE
ACROSS THE REGION. SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT VIA THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
LOWER-MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...ALTHOUGH MODEST OVERALL CONVERGENCE
AND RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL INVERSION /AROUND 700MB SUCH AS 12Z
JACKSONVILLE OBSERVED RAOB/ MAY BE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE
CERTAIN/CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK. SHOULD STRONGER UPDRAFTS BECOME
ESTABLISHED...A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST ACROSS NORTH
FL/PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA GIVEN THE STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL
NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 02/13/2013


ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 31458275 31828204 31368125 29718176 29438316 29998357
31458275

BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-UNION-
839 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CLAY...NORTHERN BRADFORD...SOUTHEASTERN BAKER...EASTERN UNION AND
SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID
UNTIL 930 AM EST...

AT 839 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
SAMPSON...RAIFORD...NEW RIVER...LAKE
BUTLER...JOHNSTOWN...STARKE...ELLERBEE...LAWTEY.. .AND KINGSLEY
THROUGH 930 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

[link to weather.aero]

BAD STORM HEADING TOWARDS GAINESVILLE FL............ [link to radar.weather.gov]

[link to static.baynews9.com]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Strong storms eye Tallahassee, Jacksonville [link to ow.ly]