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Apophis DOOM... in 2068?

 
Dr. AstroModerator
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02/19/2013 05:15 AM

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Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
I know the Yarkovsky effect has become a popular buzzword around here lately by some who don't seem to understand when that effect is and isn't important or how it works, but when it comes to Apophis and the various gravitational keyholes (yay, another buzzword) it will pass close to in 2029, small effects matter since we're still over a decade from that close approach. 2068 is now the most likely impact possibility for Apophis by an order of magnitude with odds of about 1 in 185,000. That is a little more likely than the odds for a 2036 impact were prior to the latest close approach this year with the acquisition of the latest astrometric data. The keyhole for an impact in 2068 is much smaller than 2036 (2.25 meters wide vs 616.16), but is also much closer to the nominal path and the probability density.
[link to arxiv.org]

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 02/19/2013 05:42 AM
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aqmah

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02/19/2013 05:16 AM

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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
see u in glp year 2067
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
see u in glp year 2067
 Quoting: aqmah


oldman
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
see u in glp year 2067
 Quoting: aqmah


oldman
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


cruise
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
yoda
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Ill be 76 by then vsb
 Quoting: Blackhawkie


Shit ill be 78. Lol
Anonymous Coward
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02/19/2013 05:43 AM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
So is there any chance at all of apophis hitting in 2036?
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Ill be 76 by then vsb
 Quoting: Blackhawkie


Shit ill be 78. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Going to be hard to run from a falling rock then, won't it? I'll be older than either one of you, so you two can flip the coin to see who gets to push my wheelchair ahead of the tidal/blast wave.

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 02/19/2013 05:47 AM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Ill be 76 by then vsb
 Quoting: Blackhawkie


Shit ill be 78. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Going to be hard to run from a falling rock then, won't it? I'll be old than either one of you, so you two can flip the coin to see who gets to push my wheelchair ahead of the tidal/blast wave.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


spock
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
So is there any chance at all of apophis hitting in 2036?
 Quoting: quetzal


By this analysis (which I should mention used a subset of the total astrometric data which basically excluded amateur observations) there in about a 1 in 11,000,000 chance. 2068 is far more likely. Other minor possibilities exist which are in and of themselves an order of magnitude more likely than 2036.
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Apophis is our dinosaur moment.
BoroBoro

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02/19/2013 06:23 AM

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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Hey Astro,

I have been following this site: [link to www.meteorscan.com]

It seems like there has been an uptick... have you been getting any new data that may suggest more or unusual meteor action lately??

Thanks in advance

Kind Regards.

Boro
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Ill be 76 by then vsb
 Quoting: Blackhawkie


Shit ill be 78. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I'll be 83

cruise

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 02/20/2013 01:21 PM
Dr. AculaModerator
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Going to be hard to run from a falling rock then, won't it? I'll be older than either one of you, so you two can flip the coin to see who gets to push my wheelchair ahead of the tidal/blast wave.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


I'll be 83... but...I'll push ya Doc

ahhhwheelchairac

thumbs
Anonymous Coward
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02/20/2013 01:23 PM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Isaac Newton warned you.
Anonymous Coward
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02/20/2013 01:23 PM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
ill be dead then,, too long for waiting, doom for now, i want to see doomsday
Children of the Atom

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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Isaac Newton warned you.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398


Idol1
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
i`ll be 89
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Just as a note:\

In the video game "RAGE" the asteroid that came, hit earth and killed all life on the surface was....you guessed it...
[link to search.yahoo.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/20/2013 01:29 PM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
i'll be 102

and i'll be HERE! I promise you that! via my wireless brain interface, using Windows Apple Theta 34, (shite! Windows Crapola Mega was MUCH better, with it's scratch and sniff screen!) as the nurse scrubs the clinkers off my now numb nuts!

i hope the dancing banana will still be here. it'll be tragic if he isn't!
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Going to be hard to run from a falling rock then, won't it? I'll be older than either one of you, so you two can flip the coin to see who gets to push my wheelchair ahead of the tidal/blast wave.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


I'll be 83... but...I'll push ya Doc

:ahhhwheelchairac:

thumbs
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


can you push me too? ill be 96yo.lol
KingofThorns

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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
I'll be 74...Damn..
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Isaac Newton warned you.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398


death by Granny Smith
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Ill be 76 by then :vsb:
 Quoting: Blackhawkie

i will be 101banana2
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
The first said impact could occur in 2036 now its 2068.
Dr. AculaModerator
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Going to be hard to run from a falling rock then, won't it? I'll be older than either one of you, so you two can flip the coin to see who gets to push my wheelchair ahead of the tidal/blast wave.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


I'll be 83... but...I'll push ya Doc

ahhhwheelchairac

thumbs
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


can you push me too? ill be 96yo.lol
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34828017


yeah

I got two hands dont I!?

rockon

the secret to long life is an ounce of apple cider vinegar in 10 ounces of water... everyday.... and moonshine cruise

So I got you and Astro covered

ahhhwheelchairac

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 02/20/2013 01:33 PM
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Just like shills to direct attention to some far off date whilst shit is going right now... Were was Mr Astro when shit went down in Russia...

Nothing was supposed to hit and law and behold... Astro and his pompous attitude and BS logic can't explain it so he redirects attention to some BS event that has a 1 in ( HUNDREDS OF) THOUSANDS...

LMFAO...

bsmeter2
*Rick Grimes*

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02/20/2013 01:36 PM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Going to be hard to run from a falling rock then, won't it? I'll be older than either one of you, so you two can flip the coin to see who gets to push my wheelchair ahead of the tidal/blast wave.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


I'll be 83... but...I'll push ya Doc

ahhhwheelchairac

thumbs
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


As will I!

cheers
*Rick Grimes*

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02/20/2013 01:36 PM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Just like shills to direct attention to some far off date whilst shit is going right now... Were was Mr Astro when shit went down in Russia...

Nothing was supposed to hit and law and behold... Astro and his pompous attitude and BS logic can't explain it so he redirects attention to some BS event that has a 1 in ( HUNDREDS OF) THOUSANDS...

LMFAO...

bsmeter2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18475264


lol, yea we should all listen to you instead.

1rof11rof1

jerkit

Last Edited by *Evan on 02/20/2013 01:36 PM
Anonymous Coward
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02/20/2013 01:37 PM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Just like shills to direct attention to some far off date whilst shit is going right now... Were was Mr Astro when shit went down in Russia...

Nothing was supposed to hit and law and behold... Astro and his pompous attitude and BS logic can't explain it so he redirects attention to some BS event that has a 1 in ( HUNDREDS OF) THOUSANDS...

LMFAO...

bsmeter2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18475264


it is interesting timing.
Anonymous Coward
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02/20/2013 01:43 PM
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Re: Apophis DOOM... in 2068?
Just like shills to direct attention to some far off date whilst shit is going right now... Were was Mr Astro when shit went down in Russia...

Nothing was supposed to hit and law and behold... Astro and his pompous attitude and BS logic can't explain it so he redirects attention to some BS event that has a 1 in ( HUNDREDS OF) THOUSANDS...

LMFAO...

bsmeter2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18475264


Exactly. He is very clever how he does this

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