Apophis DOOM... in 2068?

I know the Yarkovsky effect has become a popular buzzword around here lately by some who don't seem to understand when that effect is and isn't important or how it works, but when it comes to Apophis and the various gravitational keyholes (yay, another buzzword) it will pass close to in 2029, small effects matter since we're still over a decade from that close approach. 2068 is now the most likely impact possibility for Apophis by an order of magnitude with odds of about 1 in 185,000. That is a little more likely than the odds for a 2036 impact were prior to the latest close approach this year with the acquisition of the latest astrometric data. The keyhole for an impact in 2068 is much smaller than 2036 (2.25 meters wide vs 616.16), but is also much closer to the nominal path and the probability density.
[link to arxiv.org]

Last Edited by Astromut on 02/19/2013 05:42 AM