...I don't think so . . . 
"1. Introduction
1.1 2009 is a key moment in the history of attempts to tackle the urgent threat of climate
change. New science suggests its impacts will be even more severe and felt far sooner than previously
anticipated. The window of opportunity for avoiding dangerous levels of climate change is closing
fast. All sectors have a responsibility to act and to act quickly to reduce their GHG emissions
substantially. Bunker fuels, including those from international aviation, are in no sense an exception
and must be brought into global GHG reduction plans and the UNFCCC Agreement in Copenhagen
in December 2009. GIACC alongside ICAO, its member states and industry and civil society
observers, has a solemn responsibility at this 11th hour to agree to effective proposals to this end.
2. Aviation’s contribution to radiative forcing is 4.9% of the global total and exceeds shipping
by 75%2.1 ICSA’s presentation to GIACC/3 highlighted aviation’s contribution to climate change.
Since the meeting, new evidence has been published by Lee et al which updates the IPCC’s Fourth
Assessment Report (4AR), providing results based on operational data for 2005 (IPCC 4AR was
based on 2000 data). The report shows that global emissions of CO2 from air transport grew over 45%
between 1992 and 2005, reaching an estimated 733 million tonnes a year by the end of the period.
Between 2000 and 2007 alone, aviation traffic grew at an annual average rate of 5.3%, leading to a
38% increase in passenger traffic. The European Environment Agency (EEA) moreover estimates that
EU15 CO2 emissions from aviation grew 102% between 1990 and 2006. Lee et al calculated that the
CO2
and non-CO2 radiative forcing (RF) attributable to aviation in 2005 was 4.9% of the total RF when best estimates for the effects of aviation induced cirrus cloud formation are included (Lee et. al.
– see Appendix B). Without cloud effects, the figure was
3.5%. Estimates of total aviation RF(excluding cirrus) in 2050, using fuel usage growth factors of 2.7 to 3.9 over baseline year 2000, are 3 to 4 times greater than the 2000 value. [
link to legacy.icao.int]
