WEATHER ALLERTS

SevereStudios‏@severestudios

Severe weather threat increasing across eastern TX this morning: [link to 1.usa.gov]

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

First #severe t-storm warning of the day, in SE OK, S AR, NE TX. Half-dollar #hail reported in Camden, AR. [link to wxch.nl] #q

SevereStudios‏@severestudios

Today's tornado threat map: [link to 1.usa.gov]

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Even though storm are sub severe they have HEAVY RAINFALL through Ft. Worth and soon to be Dallas, TX: [link to radar.weather.gov] … #Dallas #Q

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Here is the warm from we will focus on for today's #severe threat: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] … #TXwx #LAwx #MSwx

Breaking News Storm‏@breakingstorm

Severe thunderstorm warning issued for portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas - @weatherchannel [link to wxch.nl]

RyanMaueRyan Maue 10 h


3 storms on the map for Monday, one out to sea, one in Gulf, another dumping snow in Midwest. Active pattern. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Brad Panovich‏@wxbrad

Well there's something you don't see everyday. [link to twitpic.com] #arwx

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211322Z - 211445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND A WATCH COULD
BECOME NECESSARY BY MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SE TX...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW JUST SW OF ACT. A SPECIAL 12Z SOUNDING FROM CLL SHOWED BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE...RESULTING IN MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. OTHER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS FARTHER S SHOWED A MUCH
WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONGER CAP...THOUGH THE CLL
SOUNDING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FWD SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB.
THUS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY A SUBTLE APPARENT SPEED MAX OVER
S CENTRAL TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IF STORMS CAN MOVE EWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STILL...THE PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE THE
DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...SINCE STORMS
FORMING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE
COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER NE. N OF THE WARM
FRONT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..THOMPSON/GOSS.. 02/21/2013

Quoting LargoFl:
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 /245 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013/

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

IRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........5 TO 8 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........5 TO 8 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST.

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
WATCH AREA WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN TO
CUMMING TO HOMER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA TO AROUND 4 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

THE WATCH TIME PERIOD IS FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ADD ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OR ANOTHER
WATCH ISSUANCE.

* LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS...
DITCHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH
DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...FLINT...OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVER BASINS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES...MAINLY
SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS.

HOWEVER...DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND STRUCTURES
NEARBY. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ABBEVILLE AREA SINCE THE
OCMULGEE RIVER WAS IN MINOR FLOOD JUST THIS WEEK.

for monday too... ...DISCUSSION...
WITHIN PERSISTENT BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK EMERGING FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE WILL FORM
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING/REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT PEAK SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...AS A MOIST WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.

Need to go check the news because here in Round Rock, Texas, just North of Austin, the temp dropped 15+ degrees by the feel of it, HEAVY clouds blew in & the wind really picked up. No rain or hail & I'm from Western Washington so not really sure what to look for as far as Tornado's go, though I'm told they are very rare around here. Stay safe everyone & Thank You for the Weather Updates!

TAKE CARE!!! STAY SAFE!!!

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Local Storm Report by NWS ICT: Salina [Saline Co, KS] emergency mngr reports SNOW of M6.2 INCH at 08:13 AM CST -- #KSwx

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Shawnee County, KS discouraging #travel on our roads.Snow is deep & hazardous. Emergency Service having difficulty getting down the roads.

Im in East Texas,looking at the radar at this moment and not likin it one damn bit!

Scary weather on-tap for today...hope the grandkid at school stays safe through this.

Kaufman county,East of Dallas.

Time ta get the truck under the car-port,maybe the hail want come in sideways on it.

GOES East.. Plenty of moisture.. Water Vapor still showing Dry Slot in Texas.. [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov] [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

That's a lot of lightning: [link to www.uspln.com]

Sky just got real dark,heard some thunder.

East of Dallas

OOps...winds just started up

TAKE CARE!!!

Wow,thunder-snow or ice storm rom hell?

Looks Discrete: [link to rapidrefresh.noaa.gov] [link to rapidrefresh.noaa.gov] [link to rapidrefresh.noaa.gov] [link to rapidrefresh.noaa.gov] [link to rapidrefresh.noaa.gov]

Anyone have storm chasers web site handy?

thanks

The SPC said:
.THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL ROTATION SUGGESTS SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL -- ALONG WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

HOWEVER...STORM MODE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRIMARILY LINEAR...AND
HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MODE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THUS -- 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY STILL APPEARS
APPROPRIATE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL N OF THE WARM FRONT
AND HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION......


so we'll see.

New SPC outlook is in, no changes to tornado probabilities.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EAST TX...MUCH OF
LA...AND SOUTHERN MS...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM MO SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF TX/LA/MS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ATOP A COLD/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTH OF LFK TO SOUTH OF LCH. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN RAPID MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HEATING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS PRIMARILY PASSING NORTH OF THIS REGION. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN A
RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG...PROVIDING A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
RISKS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/MOSIER.. 02/21/2013