WEATHER ALLERTS

Please in this moment i can't access to the major meteo sites because my comp is too low. So if anyone want to help updating this storm situation, i thank you very much!

I'm on it Luis...Heads up Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas and Florida..We are all in for some nasty weather!


Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index..added some 5s..

Thursday, Feb. 21
Scattered severe thunderstorms in east TX, LA, MS, south AR, spreading overnight into west AL, west FL panhandle.

TORCON
AL west-central, southwest night - 3 to 4
AR south - less than 2
FL west panhandle night - 2 to 3
LA central - 5
LA north - 3
LA south - 3
MS north - 3
MS south - 3 to 4
MS central - 4
TX east-central - 5
TX northeast - 3
TX southeast - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less

Friday, Feb. 22
Scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain in southeast LA, extreme southeast MS, south and east-central AL, central and southwest GA, west FL panhandle. TORCON - 3 these areas. A lower chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in southeast GA, southeast SC.

ISSUED 1104 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013/

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH A 90-110 KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ROTATE ACROSS AZ/NM TONIGHT AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK. HOWEVER...LIMITED DEEP
LIFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER DARK.

LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WEST TX
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH SOUTHERLY EXTENT OVER TX.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
ABI TO SOUTH OF DAL BY THU MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ALONG/SOUTH OF
THIS AXIS...BUT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD
PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO IF A
THUNDERSTORM CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

What the heck is a Brief Tornado? Just a little one?

This is for Tomorrow...



SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IT
WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT DISCRETE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STRUCTURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. TRUE WARM SECTOR SFC BASED UPDRAFTS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE
COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. EVEN SO NEAR-SFC BASED STRUCTURES MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES WHILE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTS
ITSELF IN A SW-NE FASHION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO CNTRL MS.

Oh wow, the TORCON for Alabama is as high as Mississippi's? That's interesting, because the local meteorologists here in Alabama are downplaying tomorrow night's event. Hmmm..

I saw that!
Never know what to believe with these conflicting forecasts.

For Tonight!


Damaging Winds and Hail
As low pressure intensifies across the southern High Plains Wednesday night, a cold front will slice through central Texas, igniting powerful thunderstorms from San Angelo to Abilene.

These thunderstorms will then race through the eastern part of the state, plowing though Dallas and even Tyler by Thursday morning.

The primary threats from this first round of severe thunderstorms will come in the form of large hail and damaging gusts of wind, which could bring down trees and power poles.

Hail could reach the size of quarters or even tennis balls across this region, which is big enough to cause damage to vehicles, windshields and windows.

Storms Become Tornadic
As Thursday progresses, the thunderstorms will enter an area of very unstable, warm and moist air across far eastern Texas and Louisiana. Powerful westerly winds behind the thunderstorms will be met with strong southerly winds ahead of them, resulting in a twisting motion of the lower atmosphere.

The second round of thunderstorms will take on rotating supercell characteristics in the late morning into the early evening hours from near Lufkin, Texas eastward to near Hattiesburg, Miss and New Orleans. This is the window of opportunity for the worst of the thunderstorm outbreak to take place.

If you have travel plans across the area, blinding downpours and locally flooding rains will cause plenty of delays on I-10, I-20, I-55 and I-35, to name a few.

[link to www.accuweather.com]

Hey, guys. Watching out here. We got about a 1/3 of an inch overnight. It's very foggy right now and we're waiting for the t-storms to get here. They are still calling for us to get 1 inch hail tonight. Sorry, I can't copy and paste right now. The mouse is having issues!LOL Here's the link, but it will keep updating.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]

It looks like a busy week or so for us, if the forecasts are right. The wind advisory is for tomorrow.

I saw that too..The Mets can never agree but given the way the weather has been acting lately, and looking at the radar, I think the TORCON is right.

Buckeye..Looks like Texas is going to be in for some weather tonight. We need the rain..but not the twisters.

I think it depends on how far north the warm front gets, but nothing surprises me anymore.

That's a fact! You guys are more in line, I think. The panhandle is going to get snow tonight. We're not supposed to get the twisters, but Ron Roberts on KAMC just said "damaging winds and large hail" all night long.

Roberts also said the air temp. at 1000 ft. is about 20 degrees warmer than down here. With the lift, that'll explode off the cap.

Severe Weather Threat Tonight into Thursday: Analysis and Timeline

Tonight, thunderstorms will form on top of the cap, hence the term elevated thunderstorms. Since these storms will be in an unstable air-mass, they could become strong to severe with large hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat will be minimal with these elevated storms since they are rooted above the stable air in the lower atmosphere.

This is the type of setup we expect across much of Texas tonight. The one exception could be part of South-Central Texas. More on that in a bit. Lets talk about the time-frame for our storms tonight.

Lots more on the TX at the link below..


[link to www.texasstormchasers.com]

I was just reading about that...


Thunderstorms that are elevated develop above an inversion layer, known as a cap. This cap prevents surface parcels from towering upward into thunderstorms. It’s a thin layer of stable air in the lower atmosphere. For tonight’s case, air above this lid is going to be unstable. Tonight, thunderstorms will form on top of the cap, hence the term elevated thunderstorms. Since these storms will be in an unstable air-mass, they could become strong to severe with large hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat will be minimal with these elevated storms since they are rooted above the stable air in the lower atmosphere.

This is the type of setup we expect across much of Texas tonight. The one exception could be part of South-Central Texas. More on that in a bit. Lets talk about the time-frame for our storms tonight.

[link to www.texasstormchasers.com]

Thought you might like the skycam from the Overton Hotel. It's right across the street from Texas Tech.

[link to everythinglubbock.com]

This site has links for skycams spread out all over the South Plains and W. New Mexico.

Awesome Job CowgirlUK!

This is what I am getting from twitter

South MO and North AR could see signficant ice accumulations

Kansas City MO may see 12 to 18" of snow!

Radar for Texas..

[link to www.weather.com]

Just doing my part as a Helptard!

I don't know Abi..I'll have a look for you and see what I can find out.

Thanks for the link..sure is socked in!

All the local news in N. Alabama playing it down too. Watch the wind map as it starts to roll in. It will give you a good idea if it will be coming this far north.
[link to hint.fm]

was waiting for you to post this

Hi AC! I love that map most of time, until now! That line in Texas is right over me! I'll be up late with you Cowgirl!

St Louis is already starting to close schools for tomorrow..

[link to www.kmov.com]

Don't Let Winter Storms Catch You Off-Guard
Main Content
Release date:
February 19, 2013
Release Number:
RV-NR-2013-003

CHICAGO – You can’t always predict severe weather, but you can prepare. As a powerful winter storm continues to develop in the Central U.S., the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) encourages everyone to get ready now to weather the storm for at least three days by having all the supplies you and your family need on hand.

“Snow and ice storms can be dangerous and potentially life-threatening. It’s important to know your risk, have a plan and put it into action when confronted with severe weather,” said FEMA Region V Administrator Andrew Velasquez III.

[link to www.fema.gov]

Interesting that FEMA put out a press release today!