WEATHER ALLERTS

probably going to get worse up there with all the rain coming..................OBSERVED FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MINOR SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MINOR SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE (SR 20) AFFECTING WALTON COUNTY
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE (SR 20) AFFECTING WALTON COUNTY
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE (SR 20) AFFECTING WALTON COUNTY

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOOD THREAT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

Daytona 500 may be ok..we'll see what happens.....DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD AND
SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AND A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

Miami NWS Disco

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS LOOKING MORE PLAUSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE PLAINS/MS VLY
AND PUSH TOWARD GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY MON/TUE. INITIALLY...THIS
WILL LIFT ANY REMNANT LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR TUESDAY /ECMWF/ WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA. CHANCE POPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR NORTH OF
REGION. THOUGH NOT REFLECTED CURRENTLY IN GRIDS...THUNDERSTORMS
CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SOUTHWARD TREK OF OVERALL STORM SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST...PRESENT GUIDANCE
POINTS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS/MOISTURE PERSISTING. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT TROUGH
STILL WEST OF FLORIDA...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN OR INCREASE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD...DRY ADVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES BY END OF PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES
MAY LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

For West Palm Beach...

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@WCTVMike WRF over Hawaii shows the speck of heavy winter snows [link to twitter.com (secure)]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Rain in the South will be beneficial but disruptive [link to ow.ly]

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Hope your #FL panhandle spring break isn't over the next 7 days....Soaked !!! [link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov] #flwx #springbreak

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
547 AM HST FRI FEB 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 845 AM HST

* AT 542 AM HST...A GAGE ON WAIKANE STREAM SHOWED A RAPID RISE
IN WATER LEVEL FROM HEAVY RAIN NEAR HAUULA...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PUNALUU AND LAIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 845 AM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2158 15811 2168 15790 2142 15770 2139 15797

$$
HOUSTON

[link to radar.weather.gov]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 10AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS...16.1 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
NEAR 18.5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 18 FEET, CONSIDERABLE LOWLAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
$$

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Another big cross-country storm for next week [link to ow.ly]

[link to www.hawaiinewsnow.com]

Hawaii, flash flooding since yesterday. feels like a monsoon.

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]

a mile above my house......

Last Edited by seer on 02/22/2013 03:09 PM

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN GEORGIA...

BIG CREEK NEAR CUMMING AFFECTING FORSYTH COUNTY

.RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND
RIVERS WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE LATEST STAGE DATA WAS FURNISHED IN COOPERATION WITH THE UNITED
STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

&&

GAC117-240212-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FL.W.0045.130223T1212Z-000000T0000Z/
/CMGG1.1.ER.130223T1145Z.130223T1145Z.000000T0000 Z.UU/
712 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE BIG CREEK NEAR CUMMING.
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 6 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET...AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6 FEET.
* AT 6 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS REACHED. MINOR FLOODING WILL EXPAND
INTO THE NATURAL FLOOD PLAIN OF THE CREEK UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GAGE AT ATLANTA HIGHWAY OR GEORGIA HIGHWAY 9. LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE SIDEWALK AND BOARDWALK OF THE BIG CREEK GREENWAY
WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD. THE AREAS UNDER THE GEORGIA 400 HIGHWAY AND
MCFARLAND ROAD WILL BE COVERED WITH AROUND ONE FOOT OF WATER. A
PORTION OF THE SIDEWALK UNDER MAJORS ROAD WILL BE COVERED WITH
AROUND TWO FEET OF WATER.

$$

Well after dealing with bad drought here in the Big Bend, Tallahassee officially recorded over 4 inches of rain yesterday, we got absolutely soaked! I'm quite close to the station so I would imagine my rain total was very close.

What's interesting is that the models were dead wrong about precip placement yesterday, the NWS here on FSU campus is really sharp and quick to act though, they saw it coming yesterday morning and bumped up rain chances and rainfall forecast for TLH.


While it doesn't look like much now ahead of the front, another shortwave is approaching near south Louisiana and will ride along the frontal zone which will lead to additional heavy rain today!


What is a much GREATER even will be the system arriving on Monday, the NWS is taking the flood threat and severe weather threat for our area for that pretty seriously. They mention that 2 to 3 inches are possible with the warm front, and another 2 to 3 with cold front along with possibly severe, that would be crazy! Here they mention it:

000
FXUS62 KTAE 231454
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2013

...Flash flood threat continues...
...Another active round of weather possible Monday...



...The latest
guidance would seem to indicate the severe threat would be more
confined to North Florida and perhaps a little further inland into
Southern Alabama and Georgia. Should a decent warm sector be able
to penetrate further inland, there would be a good threat for
tornadoes and damaging winds in the afternoon transitioning to a
potent squall line event Monday evening into Monday night.

Flooding is going to be a significant concern. Lift with the warm
front is very impressive so initial rainfall on Sunday evening and
into Monday morning could easily exceed 2 to 3 inches across
western areas. As the event transitions to more of a convective
mode, an additional 2 to 3 inches averaged over a larger area
could be expected with isolated higher totals. This type of
rainfall event will lead to further flash flooding and only
increase the magnitude of flooding on area rivers.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC
ADVISORY FOR THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...

KINCHAFOONEE CREEK NEAR 11 E OF DAWSON AT PINEWOOD RD IN LEE COUNTY
AFFECTING LEE COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&

FOR CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA..TUESDAY.........................A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE ALONG
WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

(pay attention to the Isolated Tornado threat in this)..............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO NATURE COAST TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES FURTHER
SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS. IF LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND DENSE SEA FOG WILL IMPACT THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS AND MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE LAND
AREAS BY LATE MORNING...BUT THE SEA FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WARM
HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE THE COOLER GULF WATERS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING AS THE FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN ADDITION MARINERS OPERATING ON THE
GULF WATERS WILL ENCOUNTER NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES...SO YOU
SHOULD BLOW YOUR HORN FREQUENTLY TO SIGNAL OTHER BOATS TO YOUR
LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BE NEAR A TAMPA TO ORLANDO LINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS
TUESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE ALONG
WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR
MOTORISTS AND NAVIGATION FOR MARINERS OPERATING ON THE GULF
WATERS. MOTORISTS AND MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS TO THE GULF
AND INLAND WATER WAYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS A GOOD BET. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT A
BRISK NORTHWEST WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED WIND AND
SEAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY
WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC065-123-129-242130-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0024.130224T2105Z-130224T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WEST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EST

* AT 406 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR PLUM ORCHARD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FANLEW...HELLS HALF ACRE...RIVERSIDE...BUCKHORN...GOOSE PASTURE...
WACISSA SPRINGS...THOMAS CITY...SCANLON...ECONFINA AND CABBAGE
GROVE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3014 8422 3040 8393 3011 8377 3007 8399
3009 8402 3009 8406 3008 8408 3006 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 245DEG 25KT 3011 8414

$$

9-FOURNIER

This explains it, a large amount of elevated instability over eastern gulf coast: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

[link to images.intellicast.com] building right on time increase in coverage with heavy rains some severe/tornado possible as we advance into evening

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC005-131-133-242145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0025.130224T2121Z-130224T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 317 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEAGROVE BEACH...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BUNKER...SEMINOLE HILLS...PINE LOG...BRUCE...RED HEAD...RED BAY AND
EBRO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 8614 3039 8613 3040 8613 3065 8599
3042 8567 3027 8602 3032 8616 3032 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 234DEG 29KT 3033 8607

$$

11-MOORE



Due to low dew points with dry air near the surface severe winds or tornadoes aren't a threat right now, but high elevated instability is producing already a hail threat in north Florida, here's another warning, hail up to golf ball size.



Moisture overall isn't that deep yet in the Panhandle, so rain rates shouldn't be anything special, but much deeper moisture just to the south over the gulf will flow north and overrun the warm front later tonight.

Winter storm watch issued for your area

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242149Z - 242315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS.

DISCUSSION...SPLITTING CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR WITHIN
A W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE NERN GULF. THIS FLARE UP APPEARS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT CO-LOCATED WITH A POCKET OF COMPARATIVELY
RICHER LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE ANALYZED IN OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH
MUCAPE IS LIKELY MEAGER...AROUND 250-500 J/KG...MODERATELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLYS
INCREASING THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SAMPLED IN TLH/EVX VWP
DATA...WILL FAVOR TRANSIENT RISKS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH
TIME...INCREASING AMALGAMATION OF CORES MAY TEMPER THE THREAT.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/24/2013


ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30538288 30258260 29768266 29398286 29418331 29628517
30378641 30648525 30538288

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Thunderstorms with hail rattling the Florida Panhandle, bigger severe weather outbreak comes Monday. [link to ow.ly]

Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Monday, Feb. 25

Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain in east TX, LA, central and south MS, south half AL, south GA, FL panhandle, and spreading overnight into south SC and east-central GA. TOR:CON - 4 east-central MS, south half AL, southwest GA; 3 rest of above area. Heavy rain also in TN, north MS, north AL, north and central GA.
Tuesday, Feb. 26

Scattered severe thunderstorms in east NC, east SC, southeast VA. TOR:CON - 4 east NC, east SC; 3 southeast VA. A lower chance of a damaging gust in the FL peninsula. TOR:CON - 2 or less.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RESERVE...LAPLACE...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CST

* AT 1154 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CONVENT...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DONALDSONVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...GARYVILLE AND EDGARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi until 8 AM local time.

Relevant mesoscale discussion:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 250557Z - 250700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL AND PERIODIC WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL. MORE OF A
SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR AT LEAST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LA.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THIS
EVENING/EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. AS SAMPLED BY
THE EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LAKE CHARLES/SLIDELL
LA...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE MUCAPE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF INLAND
PRECIPITATION. DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN
AS WELL...ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO RISK...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHWARD/INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/25/2013


ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29529194 30169132 30689026 30838856 30458816 28988891
29529194

As I suspected, they indicate increased tornado potential later this morning.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
636 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

FLZ021-022-251215-
COLUMBIA-SUWANNEE-
636 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA AND EASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 715 AM EST...

AT 637 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF WELLBORN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WELLBORN...WINFIELD...SUWANNEE VALLEY...LAKE CITY...FIVE
POINTS AND WATERTOWN THROUGH 715 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS
INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF SEA FOG ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE TAMPA BAY WILL
ALSO EXTEND INLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE...THOUGH PATCHES WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THICKEST PATCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GULF WATERS. WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

FLEMING

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1245 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-251400-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0003.130226T0900Z-130226T2000Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HIGHTOWN...
MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
1245 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING
TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30...RISING INTO THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.