914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land

[link to www.bom.gov.au] Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:52 pm WST on Sunday 24 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie
including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 1 was estimated to be
330 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
445 kilometres west of Broome and
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected
on the coast overnight between Wallal and Whim Creek and then extending north
to Broome during Monday.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday
and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe
tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the
crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement should result in higher
than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall
is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley
on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread heavy rainfall is likely to
lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the
Fortescue is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek need to prepare
for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit,
torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People between Whim Creek and Mardie and inland parts of the central and
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 118.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 985 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Monday 25 February.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0705 UTC 24/02/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Rusty
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 118.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [185 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 110 nm [205 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1800: 17.6S 118.3E: 040 [075]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 25/0600: 18.1S 118.5E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 975
+36: 25/1800: 18.6S 118.8E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 970
+48: 26/0600: 19.3S 119.0E: 095 [175]: 080 [150]: 958
+60: 26/1800: 19.9S 119.3E: 105 [195]: 090 [165]: 944
+72: 27/0600: 21.3S 119.8E: 115 [215]: 050 [095]: 979
REMARKS:
The system was located based on animated VIS imagery centre. The system has the
structure of a large monsoonal system at present and the LLCC is relatively
clear in animated VIS imagery. Convection has developed to the south and
curvature on the last three images has consistently been 0.6 supporting a DT of
3.0. MET agrees and FT/CI is set to 3.0. Additional support for T3.0 as the
operational intensity analysis comes from observations at Bedout Island which
has been in sustained gales since 0200UTC.

ADT was initialised at 0330UTC and is still at CI=2.7. No AMSU intensity
estimates available.No recent

CIMSS shear analysis at 00Z showed >20 knots shear over much of the system but
the LLCC close to the shear ridge. Conditions are favourable for
intensification. Shear is expected to drop as the system moves south, SSTs are
very high and there is not expected to be any dry air intrusion. Consequently it
is expected to intensify steadily with a period of rapid intensification likely
at some stage. Outflow in southern quadrants is expected to improve during
Monday.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than
usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading
to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant floodings also likely
in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

Model guidance still shows some spread, but amongst models that intensify the
system there is better agreement. A track just west of Port Hedland is possible
but the consensus track has consistently been to the east of Port Hedland. A
track to the west of Port Hedland would lead to concerns of a major storm surge
in that area.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC

BBC Weather ‏@bbcweather
Tropical Cyclone Rusty is undergoing significant strengthening and looks set to bring flooding to Australia. [link to www.bbc.co.uk]

[link to stormcast.bsch.com.au] [link to stormcast.bsch.com.au] [link to stormcast.bsch.com.au]

Yep, Wet, wet, wet .We are right on the Border between NSW & QLD and it just seems like storm after storm keeps hammering us..Been like this for the last month.

Extreme Weather in Australia on Sunday, 24 February, 2013 at 05:29 (05:29 AM) UTC.

Description
A mini-tornado has ripped through Kiama overnight, damaging homes and the fire station, cutting power and causing minor injuries. Early reports suggest about 75 homes have been damaged and the Kiama fire station has lost its roof. There are reports of minor injuries. A Kiama resident said that some of the worst hit streets are Pacific, Antrim, Hothersall and Minnamurra. The mini-tornado hit in the early hours of the morning, with some reports saying the damage was caused when two storm cells met.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

I always wanted to visit Australia and see them dingo's and roo's.

Extreme Weather in Australia on Sunday, 24 February, 2013 at 05:27 (05:27 AM) UTC.

Description
Hundreds of homes have been damaged by a freak weather system that tore a path of destruction through parts of Sydney and the Illawarra region last night. The Bureau of Meteorology says two heavy weather systems met in a narrow band along the east coast. The result was heavy rain and winds gusting close to 100 kilometres an hour, causing major damage, but only in a handful of suburbs. Narrellan in the south and Malabar in the south-east, as well as Kiama in the Illawarra, were hit hard. The SES says it received more than 1,000 calls for help from the greater Sydney region. Spokeswoman Becky Gollings says Randwick was also badly affected, as well as parts of the south-western suburbs. "All up since the weather started affecting Sydney yesterday we've had around 1,300 jobs," she said. "Most of those have been for damage to roofs and trees down and some leaking roofs as well, but we certainly expect that number to increase throughout the day as people discover more damage to their homes." Across Narellan, 90 homes were damaged, including one home where two bedrooms were destroyed. About 70 homes were hit at Malabar. Malabar residents say they have been warned to stay inside because of asbestos in a roof that was torn off the local RSL club. Around 8,000 homes remain without power across Sydney and the central coast and authorities are warning people it could take much of the day to fix. Ausgrid says extensive damage was caused to the electricity network from the strong winds and heavy trains overnight, with large trees and other debris bringing down power lines and flooding underground substations. Earlier today 10,000 homes were without power. Ausgrid spokesman Anthony O'Brien says steady progress is being made in repairing the damage but new reports have also come in throughout the morning, affecting areas to the south of Sydney and in the east. He apologised for the delays and appealed for patience.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Flood in Australia on Saturday, 23 February, 2013 at 16:39 (04:39 PM) UTC.

Description
Two people are dead and 19,000 people have been told to evacuate as rising floodwaters and wild winds wreak havoc across the state. Roads are flooded and residents of Kempsey and areas on the state's mid-north coast are bracing as the Macleay River is expected to again break its banks. SES volunteers have responded to 2729 calls for help - 450 in Sydney - and warned the number was "rising rapidly". There have also been 34 rescues, mainly of people stranded in their cars. The body of a 17-year-old boy was discovered after he was sucked into a drainpipe while wading in waist-deep floodwater with friends on Friday afternoon. The group had been collecting golf balls when he was sucked into the drain. A friend found the boy's body in reeds about 40 metres from the drain exit near Kew, on the NSW Mid-North Coast.

One of the group, a 16-year-old boy, was also pulled into the pipe while trying to find his friend, travelling underwater for 100 metres before emerging into a dam at the other end. The two boys were taken by ambulance to Port Macquarie Base Hospital in a distraught state with the 16-year-old admitted with water on his lungs. Police remain at the scene of a second death where a man's body was found in a submerged car north of Grafton. SES volunteers were called to Rogan Bridge Road at Mylneford, about 20km north-west of Grafton, shortly before 1pm today after a car was seen submerged in floodwaters. Volunteers found the body of the man inside the car and alerted Grafton Police. Police are now working to formally identify the man. Meanwhile, some 19,000 people have been ordered to evacuate and 21400 are isolated mainly in Byron, Clarence and Belligne as rain and winds continue to batter NSW. Torrential rain, gales and dangerous surf battered regions for the second time in a month with moderate to major flooding in river systems stretching from Lismore to Port Macquarie.

Roofs were lifted off houses while thousands were left without power as an intense low pressure system moved over the region. A spokesperson for the SES said Kempsey, Port Macquarie and areas of the lower Macleay were on flood alert with volunteers urging locals to leave their homes and places of business. The higher peak is just short of the 2001 flood and will affect the Kempsey central business district and cause major flooding downstream at Smithtown and in rural areas. Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Tim Constable said although system was weakening as it head south, the rain and big swells were expected to hang around for the next week.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Weather aside, how would you rate Australia as a whole? I'm looking to jump ship here.

Another storm forms further away from Rusty, and could also impact Australia after Rusty.. [link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]

[link to www.weatherzone.com.au]

[link to www.abc.net.au]

Cyclone Rusty - North of Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 11:58 pm WST on Sunday 24 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 1 was estimated to be
325 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
430 kilometres west of Broome and moving south at 5 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek and then extending north to Broome during Monday.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement should result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People between Whim Creek and Mardie and inland parts of the central and
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 118.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Monday 25 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by dialing 1300 659 210

[link to upload.wikimedia.org] Population is over 2,410,00. Karratha is a close towns to where Rusty may make landfall. Over 16,400 people live there. Port Hedland, a closer town town, has a population of 15,000 people. Broome, a smaller town in regards to its population (11,500) is further away from those above. In AU most of the cities and population lie in the southern west coast... Their geographical location helps them be protected from any strong tropical cyclone.

Quoting Ameister12:
Rusty is completely wrapped up now. It's about to explode in intensity.

Classic signature of an extremely well organized tropical cyclone, looks to be situated just off the very warm coastal waters of Australia. May be a bad one indeed. [link to www.wunderground.com]

Well..ya better get here quick..if all this doom keeps up..there wont be much left to see. Fires..then floods..then more fires..them more floods..a few twisters...yep..its DOOM down under.

[link to wind.mit.edu] [link to wind.mit.edu] [link to wind.mit.edu]

[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]

996. indianrivguy09:49 PM GMT em 24 de Fevereiro de 2013

This monster is only going to be moving 5 mph until about this time Wednesday, when it takes off sw at more than thirty mph. First, this slow approach will really pile up the storm surge along the inshore side. This will add significantly to the wind velocity on the east side of the storm. Given that it could be beginning this move at a Cat 4, this could be pretty scary from those in that quadrant. Add 30+ mph to even the lowest Cat 4, and you are into Cat 5 territory. If it continues blowing up, nearly half a continent will be under its influence as it comes ashore and moves sw.

All cats are Safir-Simpson.
[link to www.wunderground.com]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
5:48 AM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (975 hPa) located at 17.5S 118.3E or 315 km north of Port Hedland and 420 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during Monday morning, before extending north towards Broome on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday gales could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.


Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

I'm looking TC Rusty and combining it's slow forward movement and near perfect conditions, that and the fact it's forecasted to RI just before landfall.. I'm going with 145mph Forecast for 4pm Tuesday [link to stormcast.bsch.com.au]

New microwave imagery is revealing that Rusty actually is not particularly well organized right now: [link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil] Eye has become more obscured on satellite, I wouldn't expect it to fully clear out until the storm builds in an E/SE eyewall, which will be tough with so much land right next to it. Clearly convection is much stronger on the side of the storm out over open water than the side impacting Australia: [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

[link to www.bom.gov.au] Category 4 in 48 hours..

[link to i.imgur.com]

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil] [link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil] I know the eye has become more obscured lately because of the huge burst of convection in the western semicircle, but that doesn't take away how quick this system organized.

[link to i.imgur.com]