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914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land

 
Twistie
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02/24/2013 10:18 PM
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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
I don't think that they do completely evacuate those areas when cyclones hit. The people go to cyclone shelters to ride out the winds.
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:25 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
wow, pressure is down to 968 mb.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.1 degrees South 119.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 968 hectoPascals


look at 18S entering the picture from the left [link to www.bom.gov.au]
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:27 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
The latest advice #16 calls for winds near 140 kph which equals to 87 mph... I'm using 85 mph [link to i.imgur.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:30 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
2:43 PM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (970 hPa) located at 17.7S 119.0E or 295 km north of Port Hedland and 345 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in southern quadrants
170 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. It has recently moved slowly to the east southeast but it is likely to resume a more southward track later this afternoon or this evening.

Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during this afternoon, possibly extending north towards Broome this evening or overnight. During Tuesday afternoon gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast. There is a HIGH RISK THAT RUSTY WILL CROSS THE COAST AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical tropical cyclone. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley over the next few days. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INNUNDATION.


Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.3S 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.9S 119.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.8S 119.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 22.2S 119.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
ASCAT pass at 0139Z indicated minimum maximum winds of 50 knots and agreed with position just south of Rowley Shoals. Curved band wrap of around 0.7 to 0.8 obtained off recent VIS imagery giving DT 3.0 to 3.5. MET is 4.0based on a D trend, but PAT is 3.5. ADT is still at 3.5 and latest CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate [05Z] was around 60 knots 10-min mean. SATCON latest was 55 knots 10-min mean Final intensity estimate is 55 knots 10-min mean.

CIMSS shear estimate is southesat at around 9 knots. Environmental conditions are very favorable for intensification with strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures. Steady intensification is forecast through to after 24 hours but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:31 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
[link to www.bom.gov.au]
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:32 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
TC Rusty now visible on Port Hedland Radar. [link to www.bom.gov.au]
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:36 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Updated: Monday, 25 February, 2013 at 08:12 UTC
Description
About 70 locals are being evacuated from their homes after a tornado-style storm dumped asbestos and other building materials on parks, backyards and streets in Kiama on the NSW south coast. Gale-force winds uprooted trees, stripped roofs and wiped out buildings as the storm front hit in the early hours of Sunday morning. "Seeing the roof of the fire station missing, seeing mature trees that look like they have been through a mixmaster, seeing blue tarpaulins along a defined corridor: this is an event that you associate with a tornado going through parts of America," said NSW Premier Barry O'Farrell. "What is clear is that it cut a path, it followed a path across the land." More than 170 homes suffered damage of some kind and the State Emergency Services (SES) believes at least 10 homes have been completely destroyed.

Power was yet to be restored to a number of homes on Monday afternoon as emergency volunteers scrambled to put tarpaulins on homes before more rain predicted in the coming days. After observing the devastation from a helicopter, Mr O'Farrell said cabinet was working to declare it a natural disaster zone and he hoped assistance for homeowners, businesses and farmers would be unlocked within 24 hours. He said the damage bill was unknown at this stage. Kiama mayor Brian Petschler told AAP that about 70 people lived in the asbestos exclusion zone created by debris from the town's leisure centre and a number of houses, including one that "blew up" on the edge of town. They were being evacuated on Monday and were expected to be allowed to return home in two days.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:44 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Yellow alert as cyclone Rusty approaches

Les Hayter from DFES in Karratha says that the region will go onto yellow alert by 8pm tonight.

mp3 of Radio interview

"The yellow alert is definitely going to happen, sooner rather than later," Mr Hayter told Barry Nichols on Monday afternoon.
"We don't generally like people to go to sleep not knowing the alert level so it will go on sometime tonight before 8pm."
There is a blue alert for communities between Broome and Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha.
Residents are being told to organise emergency kits including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Les Hayter says now is the time for people in the region to finalise their preparations.
"They can still move around but they are now looking at the fact that they might be moving to a red at some stage in the next 12-24 hours."
Mr Hayter says TC Rusty is intensifying and is unpredictable.
"We are looking at the potential for a very large system, category 4, crossing very slowly," he said.
"The real issue we have with this cyclone is that it is giving no indication of its travel. It appears to be heading in a south-easterly direction."
"It still possibly could swing a bit to the west which could cause problems in Port Hedland."
"Nobody is out of the woods at this stage. Anything between Mardie and Cape Levique is a possibility."
"People in low lying areas could be inundated by storm surges. These people should be looking at the possibility of evacuation and they should have an emergency kit ready."
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:50 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
RyanMaueRyan Maue5 h


SST beneath TC Rusty 30-31.5°C -- more than enough to support any Cat 5. Right now, half eyewall has formed [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 06:55 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
RyanMaueRyan Maue13 h


TC Rusty rapidly intensifying off NW Australian coast, forecast to reach at least 115 knots before landfall +2-3 dys [link to twitter.com (secure)]
TassieLurker

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02/25/2013 06:59 AM
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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Thanks for the updates OP, good job! Goofy Thum

I wish they would send some of the rain where I live (Tasmania, the island south of the Main Island). We have had something like 30 mms of rain since September, it's so dry here the trees are all turning a brown dead colour.
TassieLurker
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 07:05 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Thanks for the updates OP, good job! Goofy Thum

I wish they would send some of the rain where I live (Tasmania, the island south of the Main Island). We have had something like 30 mms of rain since September, it's so dry here the trees are all turning a brown dead colour.
 Quoting: TassieLurker


Thank's! This is much more than rain...
miffed

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02/25/2013 07:14 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Updated: Monday, 25 February, 2013 at 08:12 UTC
Description
About 70 locals are being evacuated from their homes after a tornado-style storm dumped asbestos and other building materials on parks, backyards and streets in Kiama on the NSW south coast. Gale-force winds uprooted trees, stripped roofs and wiped out buildings as the storm front hit in the early hours of Sunday morning. "Seeing the roof of the fire station missing, seeing mature trees that look like they have been through a mixmaster, seeing blue tarpaulins along a defined corridor: this is an event that you associate with a tornado going through parts of America," said NSW Premier Barry O'Farrell. "What is clear is that it cut a path, it followed a path across the land." More than 170 homes suffered damage of some kind and the State Emergency Services (SES) believes at least 10 homes have been completely destroyed.

Power was yet to be restored to a number of homes on Monday afternoon as emergency volunteers scrambled to put tarpaulins on homes before more rain predicted in the coming days. After observing the devastation from a helicopter, Mr O'Farrell said cabinet was working to declare it a natural disaster zone and he hoped assistance for homeowners, businesses and farmers would be unlocked within 24 hours. He said the damage bill was unknown at this stage. Kiama mayor Brian Petschler told AAP that about 70 people lived in the asbestos exclusion zone created by debris from the town's leisure centre and a number of houses, including one that "blew up" on the edge of town. They were being evacuated on Monday and were expected to be allowed to return home in two days.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
 Quoting: Luisport


That's such a shame! I used to work in Kiama & I think it's one of the nicest/prettiest places in NSW :)
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 07:19 AM
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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Yeah our weather is becoming increasingly unstable, we were told it wouldn't flood in Brisbane again but it did!

Something's happening!!!
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 07:20 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Yeah our weather is becoming increasingly unstable, we were told it wouldn't flood in Brisbane again but it did!

Something's happening!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34982821


and there is more on the way...
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 07:46 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
An eye is becoming increasingly visible with Rusty this morning. Let's see if it can maintain this time. [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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02/25/2013 07:52 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
I saw this , I fear US spring and summerhiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 08:47 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Quick TC Rusty update..

According to Navy/NRL TC Rusty just 51nm from Port Hedland ATM..
Appears EWRC currently ongoing..
Latest From Navy/Nrl..

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil] [link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

Slow mover..



SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
WTXS32 PGTW 250900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 08:51 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Category 1 Rusty Australia's strongest tropical cyclone of 2013

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:36 PM GMT em 25 de Fevereiro de 2013

Australia's most dangerous tropical cyclone of the season so far is Tropical Cyclone Rusty, which has intensified to Category 1 strength and is lumbering southeastwards towards the northwestern coast of Australia at 6 mph. Rusty is expected to intensify further into a powerful Category 3 storm, and is predicted to make landfall near the town of Port Hedland (population 15,000) on Tuesday near 18 UTC (1 pm EST in the U.S.) Rusty formed on Saturday evening when westerly winds blowing near the Equator combined with easterly winds blowing south of New Guinea to create an unusually large tropical storm with a huge, 100-mile diameter cloud-free center. Ordinarily, a storm this large takes a long time to wind up, but Rusty intensified quickly, taking advantage of low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and near-record warm ocean temperatures of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F). It's not often that a tropical cyclone gets 31 - 32°C waters to feed off of; these temperature are about 1.5°C (2.7°F) warmer than average for this time of year. The hot ocean temperatures are largely due to Australia's hottest month in its history--the nationally-averaged monthly maximum temperature during January 2013 was the highest ever recorded. For the waters off the northwest Australian coast (15°S - 20°S, 115°E - 120°E), only two years since ocean temperature records began in 1960 have seen February ocean temperatures this warm (1.57°C above average in 2005, and 1.62°C above average in 1983.) The warm waters also extend to great depth; the tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in this region is over 90 kJ/cm**2, a value commonly associated with rapid intensification. With its slow movement, large circulation, and near-record warm waters to feed off, Rusty is going to dump some prodigious rains on the coast of northwestern Australia over the next few days. Radar out of Port Hedland shows very heavy rains already affecting the coast, and sustained wind as high as 38 mph have been observed there today.


Figure 1. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free center and an intense band of precipitation to it southwest moving ashore over the coast of Australia near Port Hedland. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 0555 UTC on February 24, 2013 as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Rusty was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and had an usually large cloud-free center more than 100 miles in diameter. Image credit: NASA.

Rusty the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in 2013
It's been a rather quiet tropical cyclone season for Australia so far in 2012 - 2013; only two weak tropical storms have hit the country. Tropical Cyclone Peta hit the northwest coast on January 23 as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Peta dumped heavy rains of 4 - 10" (102 - 254 mm) in the Port Hedland area, very close to where Rusty is expected to make landfall. Peta's rains caused widespread flooding but no major damage. More serious were the rains from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which hit the Queensland coast in Northeast Australia on January 21 as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. The remnants of Oswald pushed southwards along the coast and generated record rains that caused massive flooding in Queensland. Six people died and damage was estimated at $2.5 billion. The heaviest rains fell near Tully, where approximately 1 meter (39") of rain fell in 48 hours.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Oswald at 0425 UTC on January 21, 2013. Oswald hit Queensland, Australia as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters
[link to www.wunderground.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 09:48 AM
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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Yeah our weather is becoming increasingly unstable, we were told it wouldn't flood in Brisbane again but it did!

Something's happening!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34982821


No it's not!

Nothing unusual with this weather when compared to the historical data.
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 03:20 PM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
bump
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 04:22 PM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
RyanMaueRyan Maue3 h


Stationary TC Rusty off NW Australia accum precip -- nice & dry in eye. 20''+ QPF outside (BOM-11km Reg model) [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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02/25/2013 05:13 PM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
5:44 AM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 18.9S 119.2E or 170 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 320 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has intensified over overnight, as it continues to move slowly southwards towards the coast. The slow motion of the tropical cyclone means that the expected crossing time and location remains uncertain.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, and may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream during the afternoon and evening.

Very Destructive winds with gusts to 105 knots may develop in coastal parts between Port Hedland and Wallal during the day, as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the Pilbara coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and
Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Rusty loop [link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Rusty. MODIS aqua [link to lance2.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov]
Luisport (OP)

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02/27/2013 05:38 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
2:55 PM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (952 hPa) located at 19.8S 119.5E or 110 km east northeast of Port Hedland and 155 km north of Marble Bar has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center in southern quadrants
85 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is crossing the coast to the east of De Grey. The center is expected to move over land late this afternoon. Port Hedland will escape Rusty's worst winds; which are occurring on the coast between De Grey and Pardoo. Wind gusts in excess of 90 knots are occurring in that area.

Gales are continuing in Port Hedland and extend east along the coast to Wallal. Gales will extend inland towards Marble Bar during this evening, and may reach Nullagine overnight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 70 knots are occurring along the coast in the vicinity of De Grey and Pardoo, and could reach Marble Bar overnight.

Widespread very heavy rainfall overnight and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

People on the coast between De Grey and Wallal are warned of the potential for a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE during this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Whim Creek including Port Hedland and extending to adjacent inland areas of the
Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream, Tom Price, Telfer and Newman

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Paraburdoo, Three Rivers and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne district and the Interior

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 20.7S 119.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.2S 119.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 27.1S 120.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: xx xx - xx

Additional Information
=======================
CIMSS wind shear at 06 UTC was 2.3 m/s from 340 degrees

ADT 0430UTC CI is 4.6 with raw T numbers of around 3.8. Previous few analyses put the system over land so ADT was not available. No recent CIMSS AMSU, CIRA or SATCON.

DVORAK: DT of 4.5 based on an eye patterns in enhanced infrared and curved band in visible, averaged over recent imagery. MET is 4.5 and FT is set at 4.5. CI is at 5.0. Final intensity estimate has been lowered to 80 knots 10-min mean.

Over the last few hours the system has been moving in a south to southeasterly direction. Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is weakening as it interacts with land.

The translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this, leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding is also possible in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams, though a strong gradient in rainfall is likely to the west of the track.
Luisport (OP)

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02/27/2013 05:39 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued at 11:54 am WST on Wednesday 27 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Dampier
including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the
Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream, Tom Price, Telfer and
Newman.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the
Pilbara including Paraburdoo, Three Rivers and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne
district and the Interior.

At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 4 was estimated to be
125 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
190 kilometres north of Marble Bar and is moving southeast at 5 kilometres per
hour towards the coast.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has started to take a southeasterly track over
the last few hours. During the afternoon it is expected to take a more
southerly track as it moves towards the Pilbara coast.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek and
will extend inland towards Marble Bar during today, and may reach Nullagine
overnight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour are occuring
along the coast in the vicinity of De Grey and Pardoo, and could reach Marble
Bar overnight.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are
likely in the vicinity of De Grey and Pardoo during the afternoon and evening
as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

Widespread very heavy rainfall today and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR
FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the
Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

People on the coast between Wallal and De Grey are warned of the potential for
a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the system approaches the coast. Tides are
likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING
WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.



DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland and South Hedland should remain in shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Pardoo, extending inland
to Marble Bar and Nullagine need to take action and get ready to shelter from a
cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Bidyadanga and Wallal and between
Whim Creek and Dampier, including Karratha and extending to inland areas
including Millstream, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.
ALL CLEAR: People in communities from Mardie to Dampier are advised that the
cyclone danger has passed.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.5 degrees South 119.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Wednesday 27 February.
Luisport (OP)

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02/27/2013 05:40 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
TC Rusty eye is almost fully over land now. [link to www.bom.gov.au]
Luisport (OP)

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02/27/2013 05:41 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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02/27/2013 06:21 AM

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Re: 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land
[link to www.weatherzone.com.au]

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