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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
Dr. AstroModerator
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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.

*Update 3/4/13
Here's my video update on the potential for collision with Mars (using astrometric data through March 1st):


Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 03/04/2013 07:23 PM
astrobanner2
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02/24/2013 11:34 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks astro.
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02/24/2013 11:38 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Well so much for everybody running and hiding on Mars. Poetic Justice. LOL. We would just fuck up that planet too.

So I'm guessing if this thing hits mars with that kind of force it could what...Knock it off its orbit...Create lots of debris... What else.
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'll also try to see where the potential impact could occur if it does. At the time Dr. Musgrave wrote his post, the nominal distance of the pass was nearly 10 times what it currently is (0.0007 AU) and the maximum distance was many times larger as well. We know at this point that it will be a very close pass of a comet, but we do not yet know if it will hit. That possibility still remains, however, despite the increase in certainty of its orbit as it relates to mars as compared to the start of this month.
astrobanner2
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Possible epic photo's from the rover if it happens !
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
glp uncle
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02/24/2013 11:42 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
How big is the comet.The link did not open for me.
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
This will be good 5*
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Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Well so much for everybody running and hiding on Mars. Poetic Justice. LOL. We would just fuck up that planet too.

So I'm guessing if this thing hits mars with that kind of force it could what...Knock it off its orbit...Create lots of debris... What else.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35105254


It wouldn't knock it off its orbit, you'd be amazed how much inertia a planet like Mars has, but it's hard to overstate just how massive the force of the collision would be. The explosion would be several orders of magnitude greater than every single nuclear weapon on earth combined.
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Possible epic photo's from the rover if it happens !
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33838111


One of the questions I want to answer with my analysis is, would there still be a rover?
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
breaker
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hmmmmm...If a hit takes place i would think from May through to August of 2015 would be the scary part for earth and debris hitting us....
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02/24/2013 11:49 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Comet size please.
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
finally, an astro thread that doesn't seem to be 100% disinfo

5a
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Awesome! 5a

Thanks, Astro.
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02/24/2013 11:51 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
finally, an astro thread that doesn't seem to be 100% disinfo

5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35032505


putin
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very cool! This may be a stupid question, but is there any way we would be able to witness this from Earth? Through a telescope perhaps?

Thanks for all of your threads on here, I always enjoy reading them and appreciate your cosmic insight. 5 stars and karma.
Petyermouse
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02/24/2013 11:56 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very cool! This may be a stupid question, but is there any way we would be able to witness this from Earth? Through a telescope perhaps?
 Quoting: Petyermouse


No, you would definitely want a Microscope. It allows you to slow the frames down by MICROsecond through the scope (aka viewing Mars....)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Come on man how big is she.
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
breaker
 Quoting: CrazyBud



DOn't you worry. Proper of UFOs are gonna blow it up as quickly as Ben Affleck Oscar speech haha :)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Maybe this will cause more meteorites
6473madburger

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Interesting how the attention is directed far into the future, meanwhile you should be looking right in front of you. Very clever
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Size??
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Comet size please.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33589735


Real quick and rough, given a total absolute magnitude of 6 and this formula:
Log10(size in km) = 0.9 - 0.13*H
[link to mnras.oxfordjournals.org]
The comet's physical size should be approximately 1.32 km. I would take that as a lower limit though, since the comet is still far out and is not fully active yet and the formula is therefore underestimating it. Realistically expect it to be as much as 10 times that size if it's a major comet.
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very cool! This may be a stupid question, but is there any way we would be able to witness this from Earth? Through a telescope perhaps?

Thanks for all of your threads on here, I always enjoy reading them and appreciate your cosmic insight. 5 stars and karma.
 Quoting: Petyermouse


Yes, according to Ian's post it should be visible from earth (at least Mars will be, again, no idea where on mars it will hit yet but I will work on that), but I haven't yet determined where exactly you'll have to be to see it.

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 02/25/2013 12:11 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bumpity
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Blast from the past;

"I think the event may have happened on 03 June. Look at file 000603_c3.mpeg. All other movies increment at approx 1 hour steps. This movie jumps from 07:42 to 16:42 A WHOLE DAY! This happens just as Mars is starting to appear. Mars doesn't appear till the 3rd June."

We believe we have identified three separate "explosions" associated with t he Mars/76P encounter, starting as early as May 25th. These are identified by first a debris field emanating from the area of the planet itself on or about the 25th of May, a set of missing frames as identified by our peer in the above email, and objects in the star field that do not relate to any known object. (The images relating to these reports will be posted or not, with explanation, following further assessment.)

"
[link to tmgnow.com]
Dom Diputs

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Outta stars, but tomorrow, by Phobos!

5stars
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.


[link to spaceobs.org]
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Blast from the past;
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24522527


Something in my response triggered the automatic eating of my post. No idea what it was, but please don't derail the thread about a completely different comet from 13 years ago, ok?
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Mars/76P
June 2000


Blast from the past;

"I think the event may have happened on 03 June. Look at file 000603_c3.mpeg. All other movies increment at approx 1 hour steps. This movie jumps from 07:42 to 16:42 A WHOLE DAY! This happens just as Mars is starting to appear. Mars doesn't appear till the 3rd June."

We believe we have identified three separate "explosions" associated with t he Mars/76P encounter, starting as early as May 25th. These are identified by first a debris field emanating from the area of the planet itself on or about the 25th of May, a set of missing frames as identified by our peer in the above email, and objects in the star field that do not relate to any known object. (The images relating to these reports will be posted or not, with explanation, following further assessment.)

"
[link to tmgnow.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24522527