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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
BoxerLvr

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02/25/2013 11:03 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hey Astro, your post got picked up by investmentwatchblog.

[link to investmentwatchblog.com]
It is precisely because it is fashionable for Americans to know no science, even though they may be well educated otherwise, that they so easily fall prey to nonsense. They thus become part of the armies of the night, the purveyors of nitwittery, the retailers of intellectual junk food, the feeders on mental cardboard, for their ignorance keeps them from distinguishing nectar from sewage. — Isaac Asimov
phoomp

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02/25/2013 11:04 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
finally, an astro thread that doesn't seem to be 100% disinfo

5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35032505

Finally, some legitimate doom (on another planet) that doesn't rely on misinfo and cherry picked information
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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02/25/2013 11:20 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hey Astro, your post got picked up by investmentwatchblog.

[link to investmentwatchblog.com]
 Quoting: BoxerLvr


Wow, interesting.
astrobanner2
Major Jim

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02/25/2013 11:23 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Doc,

Any estimation as to the EMP that kind of.collision would generate? And any idea of the effects it would have here?
TheSuperMarket

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02/25/2013 11:42 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Astro fk off, it won't hit.

The latest Minor Planet Ephemeris data suggests that an impact is unlikely, with a nominal pass of 0.015 AU (2,277,700 Km from Mars's surface).
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6818941


You know what? No. It probably won't hit, but I wouldn't be honest if I didn't show this because there IS a possibility that it could hit. The latest JPL data has the nominal orbit with a close approach distance of 0.0007 AU and minimum distance still 0. That's interesting enough for me to make a thread about it and do my own analysis. Don't like it? You can fuck right off yourself.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro



LOL!

The way I heard you say "You can fuck right off..." in my head, was the same way this old lady said "Well you can just fuck right off!" to 2 mormons who knocked on her door in the movie Orgazmo (by the same guys who created South Park)

LOL!
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 11:46 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Well so much for everybody running and hiding on Mars. Poetic Justice. LOL. We would just fuck up that planet too.

So I'm guessing if this thing hits mars with that kind of force it could what...Knock it off its orbit...Create lots of debris... What else.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35105254


a planet never gets knocked off orbit
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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02/26/2013 12:03 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Doc,

Any estimation as to the EMP that kind of.collision would generate? And any idea of the effects it would have here?
 Quoting: Major Jim


Well it is thought that the SL-9 collision did generate an electromagnetic radiation outburst ( [link to link.springer.com] ) but the mechanism of such an event on mars would different due to the effective absence of a magnetic field. Nevertheless, if the gamma radiation generated during the explosion through bremsstrahlung and inverse compton processes at Jupiter as the above article suggests also applies to the martian atmosphere, then compton recoil electrons from the gamma rays hitting molecules in the martian atmosphere will indeed generate a current and some degree of EMP. It won't be knocking out power on earth though if that's what you mean.

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 02/26/2013 12:04 AM
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linda***

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02/26/2013 03:29 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
hf Thanks for sharing your wonderful work!
TTX8K82

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02/26/2013 05:00 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 05:19 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
50+ km/sec potential head on collision with mars a commet?

FUCKING BOOOOOOOOOM
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 05:23 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...




Wow. I plugged those numbers into the Solar System Collision page ( [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] ) and came up with this:

Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT)
(Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)

QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)

Crater Diameter: 659.0 km
Crater Depth: 4.1 km

Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history.
 Quoting: BoxerLvr


Staggering, isn't it?
 Quoting: Dr. Astro




Poor Martians. verysad

And this was just discovered last month and it might hit next year? Only 1 year warning. Just think if it was heading our way, there is nothing we could do about it. That's big enough to wipe out all life on Earth huh?
 Quoting: BoxerLvr

It would put the rock that took out the dinosaurs to shame. And yeah, with only 1 year warning we'd be helpless to do anything about it. That's how it goes with long period comets. They never give much more warning than that, and if they happen to be headed your way... you're screwed at our level of tech.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


wasnt the rock that hit then 15 km large? I know it's energy was about 100 million megatons

but i assume it's speed was much lower, about 17km/s..compared to this mars rock that is over 50kms


all i know is i hope when it hits, that it hits the side we can see on mars. Will have my 8 in SCT out to record with my webcam
hatch battener
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02/26/2013 05:24 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Bumpity Bump bump

Unfortunately for Mars, the calculations have been getting more and more favourable for impact since observation started.

In early February the nominal close approach was 0.006 AU. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.ca]

As of today, the nominal close approach according to NASA is 0.0007 AU. [link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

From Discovery News - this thing is legit. [link to news.discovery.com]

This impact would rival those that occurred at the dawn of the solar system. Plug the calculations into [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] and the results are astounding:

"Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT) (Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)
QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5) Crater Diameter: 659.0 km Crater Depth: 4.1 km
Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history."

Even Leonid Elenin chimed in. [link to spaceobs.org]

"Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 km in diameter."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837

Just did some sleuthing, in respect to Emperor Kenton.

The following link says that after Shoemaker-Levy 9 disintegrated "At least 21 major fragments were originally identified" and that "Reasonable assumptions about the spatial distribution of the grains and about the reflectivity of the nuclei imply sizes of 2 to 4 km (diameter) for each of the 11 brightest nuclei..."

[link to archive.seds.org]

So according to that report, the biggest fragment of the Shoemaker-Levy comet that hit Jupiter was 4 km in diameter.

According to several reports, the comet that might hit Mars has a core of at least 50km.

Or twelve times bigger than the biggest fragment that hit Jupiter.

Another perspective, the distance between Boston and NYC is 300 km, so the comet that might his Mars has a diameter of about 1/6th the distance between Boston and NYC.

The above link refers to a Mars impact that "would rival those that occurred at the dawn of the solar system." The planets including Earth have been mopping up those early solar system collisions for eons, with events that may have caused extinction level events on Earth.

The eccentric orbit of Mars brings it closer to the Earth than any other planet at 35 million miles.

The Asteroid belt which most all meteorites are believed to come from begins about 90 million miles from Earth and spans about 120 million miles wide.

So Mars can be about 3 times closer to Earth than the closest part of the asteroid belt.

An object with a diameter of 50,000 meters hitting the planet that comes closest to Earth, there seems little doubt that this will kick up debris in our direction.

Bad news for Mars, but potentially worse news for humanity here on Earth. It takes us a year to swing around the Sun, so rough guess a year to a year and a half, we could be feeling the repercussions of this on Earth.

And there's nothing anyone can do to stop it!
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 05:25 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If this comet were to hit Phobos what sort of displacement could you expect? Would it knock the moon out of its geostationary orbit?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19606031


lol yes

phobos is nothing more than an asteroid that got caught in orbit around mars.

its only 11.1km in dia
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 06:12 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If one of mars moons are taken out, what type of effect would that have on mars itself?
 Quoting: TyronJones


lol
Wyoming Doom with a View

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02/26/2013 06:26 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
An event like this would mean a halt to robotic exploration of the surface, as the entire planet would have to be re-imaged in detail for new landing sites.
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 06:38 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Gonna suck to be a microbe on Mars
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 06:48 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
and mars got virtually no atmosphere; it means no slowing down if impact, this shit need to be filmed if it occurs, will be one of the most doomish video ever recorded for sure 5a
ty for the info astro !! *****
bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088492


ground level video from the Mars rover would be amazing

The Yucatan crater impact created a temporary mountain of molten Earth three times higher than Mount Everest.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9258462


depends where it hits, if it hits within close range, the poor rover is toast. Would see a brilliant flash, then feed is dead

if it's a thousand miles away, could be interesting, but would still suffer damage i would think


this thing will cause a 12.5 mag quake 600 miles from impact, from doing the online impact calculations
hatch battener
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02/26/2013 06:51 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'll posit this scenario.

Mars gets hit with an comet with a diameter 1/6th the distance between Boston and NYC (50km), as is projected.

The impact which rivals those of the early solar system kicks up a slowly expanding field of debris.

And just like with the numerous recurring meteor showers, like the Leonids, and the Orionids, and the Perseids, when the Earth passes through that region of space, the meteoric debris rains down.

If this impact happens, there will be an annual rain of destruction as the Earth passes through this region of space.

Until the entirety of civilization is destroyed...

And so it begins...
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phoomp

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02/26/2013 08:19 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'll posit this scenario.

Mars gets hit with an comet with a diameter 1/6th the distance between Boston and NYC (50km), as is projected.

The impact which rivals those of the early solar system kicks up a slowly expanding field of debris.

And just like with the numerous recurring meteor showers, like the Leonids, and the Orionids, and the Perseids, when the Earth passes through that region of space, the meteoric debris rains down.

If this impact happens, there will be an annual rain of destruction as the Earth passes through this region of space.

Until the entirety of civilization is destroyed...

And so it begins...
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960

Sure, but you need to consider how REALLY far away Mars is. Debris from a Martian impact is not going to magically appear in Earths orbit. It would spread slowly away from Mars and most of it would get caught in orbit around Mars or in Mars' orbit.
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 08:29 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'll posit this scenario.

Mars gets hit with an comet with a diameter 1/6th the distance between Boston and NYC (50km), as is projected.

The impact which rivals those of the early solar system kicks up a slowly expanding field of debris.

And just like with the numerous recurring meteor showers, like the Leonids, and the Orionids, and the Perseids, when the Earth passes through that region of space, the meteoric debris rains down.

If this impact happens, there will be an annual rain of destruction as the Earth passes through this region of space.

Until the entirety of civilization is destroyed...

And so it begins...
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960


Bingo!!!

Ezekiel 38:22
And I will plead against him with pestilence, and with blood, and I will cause to rain upon him and upon his bands, and upon the great people that are with him, a sore rain, and hailstones, fire, and brimstone.

Psalm 11:6
Upon the wicked he shall rain snares, fire, and brimstone, and stormy tempest; this is the portion of their cup.

Isaiah 34:9
And the rivers thereof shall be turned into pitch, and the dust thereof into brimstone, and the land thereof shall be burning pitch.

Revelation 9:18
Of these three was the third part of men killed, that is, of the fire, and of the smoke, and of the brimstone, which came out of their mouths.


Shit just got real, people.
DVCMCM

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02/26/2013 08:35 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Finally, some legitimate doom (on another planet) that doesn't rely on misinfo and cherry picked information
 Quoting: phoomp


sheep
hatch battener
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02/26/2013 08:42 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'll posit this scenario.

Mars gets hit with an comet with a diameter 1/6th the distance between Boston and NYC (50km), as is projected.

The impact which rivals those of the early solar system kicks up a slowly expanding field of debris.

And just like with the numerous recurring meteor showers, like the Leonids, and the Orionids, and the Perseids, when the Earth passes through that region of space, the meteoric debris rains down.

If this impact happens, there will be an annual rain of destruction as the Earth passes through this region of space.

Until the entirety of civilization is destroyed...

And so it begins...
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960

Sure, but you need to consider how REALLY far away Mars is. Debris from a Martian impact is not going to magically appear in Earths orbit. It would spread slowly away from Mars and most of it would get caught in orbit around Mars or in Mars' orbit.
 Quoting: phoomp

List of meteorites found on Earth identified as originating from the planet Mars-

[link to www2.jpl.nasa.gov]

Quite a few, with a major one discovered just last year.

These have all believed to have arrived here as asteroid collisions with the planet Mars, which blasted off debris, arriving here on terra firma.

Not to mention the conseqeunces of an impact on Mars which rivals those of the early solar system.

If it hits, you might want to consider an early withdrawl from your 401K. Because otherwise, it might not be around for you to see it
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 09:26 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
DVCMCM

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02/26/2013 09:32 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837



whatever
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 09:37 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
i thought comets were ice and dust. wouldn't it just burn up in the atmosphere?
 Quoting: Anubis


They're not. They are hard and solid. Listen to McCanney on this one. Very few are amalgamations of dust and ice.

Comets carry an electrical charge and the tail is an expression of the electrical field. Look at stuff from Talbot - electrical universe.
Hulk Hogan Leg Drop

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02/26/2013 10:39 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


Dr. Astro is a real astronomer, he just doesn't get paid for it. His analysis is just as good as a real astronomer.
Ford44

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02/26/2013 11:09 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Three visable comets this year and a collision with Mars next year.

We seem to be getting more space traffic. What are the chances that the solar system is moving into somekind of asteroid field, or vice versa?

Keep in mind that asteroid fields aren't like what is depicted in Star Wars, they can be many miles apart.
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 11:35 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
RIP Emperor Kenton..he was a very intelligent and a great human being.
Now he has a bird's eye view of our galaxy from heaven.
psyoptics

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02/26/2013 11:42 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hey, CHECK THIS OUT:




Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) – a possible collision with Mars

PostDateIcon February 25th, 2013 | PostAuthorIcon Author: Leonid Elenin

L. Elenin

There is a chance that the comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), discovered in the beginning of 2013, might collide with Mars. At the moment, based on the observation arc of 74 days, the nominal close approach distance between the red planet and the comet might be as little as 0.00073 AU, that is approximately 109,200 km! Distance to Mars’ natural satellite Deimos will be smaller by 6000 km, making it 103,000 km. On the 19th October 2014, the comet might reach apparent magnitude of -8…-8.5, as seen from Mars! Perhaps it will be possible to accuire high-resolution images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s....

More at link --> source: [link to spaceobs.org]





NOT THIS GUY AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!

gasp
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398


He never predicted doom with his comet, he just happened to find it. He is the real deal, astronomer from Russia. I know him.
 Quoting: ExoPoliChick

yes he is a very active star man....
he even works on GRB's
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 12:01 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Sure, but you need to consider how REALLY far away Mars is. Debris from a Martian impact is not going to magically appear in Earths orbit. It would spread slowly away from Mars and most of it would get caught in orbit around Mars or in Mars' orbit.
 Quoting: phoomp

List of meteorites found on Earth identified as originating from the planet Mars-

[link to www2.jpl.nasa.gov]

Quite a few, with a major one discovered just last year.

These have all believed to have arrived here as asteroid collisions with the planet Mars, which blasted off debris, arriving here on terra firma.

Not to mention the conseqeunces of an impact on Mars which rivals those of the early solar system.

If it hits, you might want to consider an early withdrawl from your 401K. Because otherwise, it might not be around for you to see it
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960


What was the time span between the collision that launched a Martian rock into space, and when that rock got to Earth? Even if the cometary collision happens, we (on Earth) are not going to be getting any of the debris for a long time.

News