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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
Wolfen /v\

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02/26/2013 04:09 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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The most destructive lies we tell are the ones we tell ourselves. Once you stop this behavior things begin to change. The universe embraces you and gives you the courage, forbearance, faith, hope and love to move up the staircase. It's enLightening.

Changing the world one person at a time.

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Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 04:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Well so much for everybody running and hiding on Mars. Poetic Justice. LOL. We would just fuck up that planet too.

So I'm guessing if this thing hits mars with that kind of force it could what...Knock it off its orbit...Create lots of debris... What else.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35105254


It wouldn't knock it off its orbit, you'd be amazed how much inertia a planet like Mars has, but it's hard to overstate just how massive the force of the collision would be. The explosion would be several orders of magnitude greater than every single nuclear weapon on earth combined.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Would it be greater than the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs?
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 04:12 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


Dr. Astro is a real astronomer, he just doesn't get paid for it. His analysis is just as good as a real astronomer.
 Quoting: Hulk Hogan Leg Drop


bsflag
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 04:18 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


Dr. Astro is a real astronomer, he just doesn't get paid for it. His analysis is just as good as a real astronomer.
 Quoting: Hulk Hogan Leg Drop


bsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34156188


Challenge him on the facts and his sources before you shoot up a bsflag. He seems to know his trade.

wtf
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 04:18 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Well so much for everybody running and hiding on Mars. Poetic Justice. LOL. We would just fuck up that planet too.

So I'm guessing if this thing hits mars with that kind of force it could what...Knock it off its orbit...Create lots of debris... What else.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35105254


It wouldn't knock it off its orbit, you'd be amazed how much inertia a planet like Mars has, but it's hard to overstate just how massive the force of the collision would be. The explosion would be several orders of magnitude greater than every single nuclear weapon on earth combined.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Would it be greater than the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12860094


by several orders of magnitude
mclinking
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02/26/2013 04:51 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Should there be an impact with this comet and Mars causing a lot of debris, what about dust like ferric oxide? Could that travel Earth's way over time? I'm sure it did once, but that might have occurred through passing through a comet tail. McCanney speculates about ISON and his 'Red Death' scenario, but I read somewhere that we will have to go through ISON's tail in January 2014.
And between now and November when ISON appears, what else is going to show up, new discoveries?
Dr. Ho Doan
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02/26/2013 04:55 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Well so much for everybody running and hiding on Mars. Poetic Justice. LOL. We would just fuck up that planet too.

So I'm guessing if this thing hits mars with that kind of force it could what...Knock it off its orbit...Create lots of debris... What else.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35105254


It wouldn't knock it off its orbit, you'd be amazed how much inertia a planet like Mars has, but it's hard to overstate just how massive the force of the collision would be. The explosion would be several orders of magnitude greater than every single nuclear weapon on earth combined.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Would it be greater than the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12860094


by several orders of magnitude
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088484


The current estimates of the impact with comet - Mars put it at roughly 2.22 x 10^25 Joules .

The The Chicxulub impact that killed off the dinosaurs was estimated at 4.2 x 10^23 Joules.

So this impact would be roughly 50 times the energy of the dinosaur killer.
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 05:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Can anyone here discuss the Electrical threat (discharge or connection) if there is a possibility of one? If so, seems to me that even if there is no impact, there might be other "hair-raising" incidents ahead.

lflash
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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02/26/2013 05:13 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


Dr. Astro is a real astronomer, he just doesn't get paid for it. His analysis is just as good as a real astronomer.
 Quoting: Hulk Hogan Leg Drop


Same as Dr. Musgrave, as a matter of fact.
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 05:16 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837




Any update again?
John Everytard

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02/26/2013 05:36 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837




Any update again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643


that was just updated a few days ago. Still being over a year out, you probably shouldn't expect updates quite so quickly. The data will increase exponentially as the date in question approaches. Give it some time...
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 07:46 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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Lime Flavoured Redux

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02/26/2013 07:48 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


Dr. Astro is a real astronomer, he just doesn't get paid for it. His analysis is just as good as a real astronomer.
 Quoting: Hulk Hogan Leg Drop


Same as Dr. Musgrave, as a matter of fact.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Sir Patrick Moore (RIP) was also an amateur.
Dom Diputs

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02/26/2013 10:45 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
So the impact is about 20 months away, and according to don a bare minimum of 4 month. 24 months is 2 years so about 2 years. Just had to clarify since I got bad karma for thinking 120 days was 2 years.
 Quoting: Hulk Hogan Leg Drop


Well it wasn't me. I sign karma, and would never even consider giving bad karma for asking a question.

Green karma coming your way just to undo the dick.

hf
phoomp

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02/26/2013 10:46 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'll posit this scenario.

Mars gets hit with an comet with a diameter 1/6th the distance between Boston and NYC (50km), as is projected.

The impact which rivals those of the early solar system kicks up a slowly expanding field of debris.

And just like with the numerous recurring meteor showers, like the Leonids, and the Orionids, and the Perseids, when the Earth passes through that region of space, the meteoric debris rains down.

If this impact happens, there will be an annual rain of destruction as the Earth passes through this region of space.

Until the entirety of civilization is destroyed...

And so it begins...
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960

Sure, but you need to consider how REALLY far away Mars is. Debris from a Martian impact is not going to magically appear in Earths orbit. It would spread slowly away from Mars and most of it would get caught in orbit around Mars or in Mars' orbit.
 Quoting: phoomp

List of meteorites found on Earth identified as originating from the planet Mars-

[link to www2.jpl.nasa.gov]

Quite a few, with a major one discovered just last year.

These have all believed to have arrived here as asteroid collisions with the planet Mars, which blasted off debris, arriving here on terra firma.

Not to mention the conseqeunces of an impact on Mars which rivals those of the early solar system.

If it hits, you might want to consider an early withdrawl from your 401K. Because otherwise, it might not be around for you to see it
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960

Absolutely, SOME of it would eventually make its way here, but the fact that Mars has had asteroid impacts in the past and the fact that we haven't found very much Martian material on Earth would suggest that a Martian impact wouldn't result in enough material making its way to Earth to have much effect.
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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02/26/2013 10:52 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837




Any update again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643


that was just updated a few days ago. Still being over a year out, you probably shouldn't expect updates quite so quickly. The data will increase exponentially as the date in question approaches. Give it some time...
 Quoting: John Everytard


For my part I've been working on calculating the uncertainty region of the asteroid. FindOrb wasn't able to generate a file that ORSA could parse correctly until I started generating it with an epoch prior to the comet's eccentricity exceeding 1. That means I now have to integrate it forward in ORSA over a period of 3 years, which is a lot more processor intensive than if FindOrb was allowed to generate it at an epoch near the actual date of the Mars pass, but it's doing the integration right now. Both programs account for the gravity of all the planets, including Mars, so it doesn't much matter aside from the processor/time requirements. I'll check on it tomorrow morning and hopefully the first integration will have completed. Then I will do a second integration with a subset of the solutions that put it closest to mars with a much finer time resolution. Bottom line, I should be able to make a video of this preliminary analysis sometime in the next day or two if all goes well.
astrobanner2
RayGun

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02/26/2013 11:08 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Here's a tweet I stumbled on.

Daniel Fischer ‏@cosmos4u
Update re. the *possible* comet impact on Mars next year: just learned from JPL that the impact probability is currently roughly 1 in 7000.
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 11:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'll posit this scenario.

Mars gets hit with an comet with a diameter 1/6th the distance between Boston and NYC (50km), as is projected.

The impact which rivals those of the early solar system kicks up a slowly expanding field of debris.

And just like with the numerous recurring meteor showers, like the Leonids, and the Orionids, and the Perseids, when the Earth passes through that region of space, the meteoric debris rains down.

If this impact happens, there will be an annual rain of destruction as the Earth passes through this region of space.

Until the entirety of civilization is destroyed...

And so it begins...
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960

Sure, but you need to consider how REALLY far away Mars is. Debris from a Martian impact is not going to magically appear in Earths orbit. It would spread slowly away from Mars and most of it would get caught in orbit around Mars or in Mars' orbit.
 Quoting: phoomp

List of meteorites found on Earth identified as originating from the planet Mars-

[link to www2.jpl.nasa.gov]

Quite a few, with a major one discovered just last year.

These have all believed to have arrived here as asteroid collisions with the planet Mars, which blasted off debris, arriving here on terra firma.

Not to mention the conseqeunces of an impact on Mars which rivals those of the early solar system.

If it hits, you might want to consider an early withdrawl from your 401K. Because otherwise, it might not be around for you to see it
hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 35194960

Absolutely, SOME of it would eventually make its way here, but the fact that Mars has had asteroid impacts in the past and the fact that we haven't found very much Martian material on Earth would suggest that a Martian impact wouldn't result in enough material making its way to Earth to have much effect.
 Quoting: phoomp


well, you do know that they have already determine
the mass of this thing, you know. and, at 120,000 miles per hour, what the impact energy will be, too.

does not bode well for the future...
Anonymous Coward
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02/26/2013 11:11 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Here's a tweet I stumbled on.

Daniel Fischer ‏@cosmos4u
Update re. the *possible* comet impact on Mars next year: just learned from JPL that the impact probability is currently roughly 1 in 7000.

 Quoting: RayGun


right, and the astronomers are still refining the
computations for the precise trajectory of this thing, too.
WISC

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02/26/2013 11:15 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837



Any update again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643


that was just updated a few days ago. Still being over a year out, you probably shouldn't expect updates quite so quickly. The data will increase exponentially as the date in question approaches. Give it some time...
 Quoting: John Everytard


For my part I've been working on calculating the uncertainty region of the asteroid. FindOrb wasn't able to generate a file that ORSA could parse correctly until I started generating it with an epoch prior to the comet's eccentricity exceeding 1. That means I now have to integrate it forward in ORSA over a period of 3 years, which is a lot more processor intensive than if FindOrb was allowed to generate it at an epoch near the actual date of the Mars pass, but it's doing the integration right now. Both programs account for the gravity of all the planets, including Mars, so it doesn't much matter aside from the processor/time requirements. I'll check on it tomorrow morning and hopefully the first integration will have completed. Then I will do a second integration with a subset of the solutions that put it closest to mars with a much finer time resolution. Bottom line, I should be able to make a video of this preliminary analysis sometime in the next day or two if all goes well.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


That's seriously really cool
Lime Flavoured Redux

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02/27/2013 11:28 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Here's a tweet I stumbled on.

Daniel Fischer ‏@cosmos4u
Update re. the *possible* comet impact on Mars next year: just learned from JPL that the impact probability is currently roughly 1 in 7000.

 Quoting: RayGun


right, and the astronomers are still refining the
computations for the precise trajectory of this thing, too.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


spock
Anonymous Coward
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02/27/2013 01:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
For my part I've been working on calculating the uncertainty region of the asteroid. FindOrb wasn't able to generate a file that ORSA could parse correctly until I started generating it with an epoch prior to the comet's eccentricity exceeding 1. That means I now have to integrate it forward in ORSA over a period of 3 years, which is a lot more processor intensive than if FindOrb was allowed to generate it at an epoch near the actual date of the Mars pass, but it's doing the integration right now. Both programs account for the gravity of all the planets, including Mars, so it doesn't much matter aside from the processor/time requirements. I'll check on it tomorrow morning and hopefully the first integration will have completed. Then I will do a second integration with a subset of the solutions that put it closest to mars with a much finer time resolution. Bottom line, I should be able to make a video of this preliminary analysis sometime in the next day or two if all goes well.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


hey, AstroMut. why don't you use your considerable
resources to hunt down which super-computer they are
using to calculate the precise trajectory of this thing,
thus enabling us to precisely tell whether or not this
thing will hit Mars and precisely what day and time it
will happen? 'kay?
Anonymous Coward
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02/27/2013 01:14 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


It wouldn't knock it off its orbit, you'd be amazed how much inertia a planet like Mars has, but it's hard to overstate just how massive the force of the collision would be. The explosion would be several orders of magnitude greater than every single nuclear weapon on earth combined.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Would it be greater than the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12860094


by several orders of magnitude
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088484


The current estimates of the impact with comet - Mars put it at roughly 2.22 x 10^25 Joules .

The The Chicxulub impact that killed off the dinosaurs was estimated at 4.2 x 10^23 Joules.

So this impact would be roughly 50 times the energy of the dinosaur killer.
 Quoting: Dr. Ho Doan 34464973




if that is correct, this impact will pack over twice the energy that strikes the surface of the earth from the Sun every year..

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

that's fucking nuts, but apparently the Caloris basin on Mercury created 1.3×10^26 J, just under 10 times more powerful than this supposed impact

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

so if an impact 10 times more powerful didn't destroy Mercury, I can't see this impact destroying Mars

now all we have to concern ourselves with is how big, and in what quantities would the debris that escapes Mars gravity be?
Anonymous Coward
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02/27/2013 01:17 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


Would it be greater than the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12860094


by several orders of magnitude
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088484


The current estimates of the impact with comet - Mars put it at roughly 2.22 x 10^25 Joules .

The The Chicxulub impact that killed off the dinosaurs was estimated at 4.2 x 10^23 Joules.

So this impact would be roughly 50 times the energy of the dinosaur killer.
 Quoting: Dr. Ho Doan 34464973




if that is correct, this impact will pack over twice the energy that strikes the surface of the earth from the Sun every year..

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

that's fucking nuts, but apparently the Caloris basin on Mercury created 1.3×10^26 J, just under 10 times more powerful than this supposed impact

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

so if an impact 10 times more powerful didn't destroy Mercury, I can't see this impact destroying Mars

now all we have to concern ourselves with is how big, and in what quantities would the debris that escapes Mars gravity be?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088484


in any event, an impact will be a considerable disaster for Earth :)
Anonymous Coward
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02/27/2013 05:34 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
So this just came top mind, thinking about something from history/folklore tales of "sky on fire". Would excessive amounts of dust and debris entering our atmosphere make it look like our sky is on fire from it burning up on entry? Sorry if its a dumb question, I tend to over-think EVERYTHING.
Anonymous Coward
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02/27/2013 05:39 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837




Any update again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643




that was just updated a few days ago. Still being over a year out, you probably shouldn't expect updates quite so quickly. The data will increase exponentially as the date in question approaches. Give it some time...
 Quoting: John Everytard


For my part I've been working on calculating the uncertainty region of the asteroid. FindOrb wasn't able to generate a file that ORSA could parse correctly until I started generating it with an epoch prior to the comet's eccentricity exceeding 1. That means I now have to integrate it forward in ORSA over a period of 3 years, which is a lot more processor intensive than if FindOrb was allowed to generate it at an epoch near the actual date of the Mars pass, but it's doing the integration right now. Both programs account for the gravity of all the planets, including Mars, so it doesn't much matter aside from the processor/time requirements. I'll check on it tomorrow morning and hopefully the first integration will have completed. Then I will do a second integration with a subset of the solutions that put it closest to mars with a much finer time resolution. Bottom line, I should be able to make a video of this preliminary analysis sometime in the next day or two if all goes well.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro





Thank you, can't wait. Thanks for the effort you put in Astro.
--Voltaic--

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02/27/2013 05:43 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Dr Astro, got some questions you can answer, not many people can.


Given the magnitude of the impact (if it does occur), how much dust can we expect to see around Mars?

Or, how much ejection into space will there be? To what magnitude would the debris field be visible around Mars?


Could we expect the debris to mimic a comets tail and glow in the night sky trailing away from Mars?


Something tells me we are going to see a VERY rare event live before our very eyes.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


we need to hope this thing misses Mars, because this is not something that would be good at all for the inner solar system planets

a huge rock hitting mars hard and very fast would throw a hell of a lot of debris out into escape velocity from mars, which would immediately start making it's way in towards the sun, and the three inner planets.

a minimum of four months after impact as the poster above said, we could be seeing multiple Russia style impacts, and maybe a few even bigger
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088484


Yes, I know.

What I am figuring out is the visual aspect of this.

Considering a billion times the largest nuclear weapon, this may be a major show in the night sky.
 Quoting: --Voltaic--


call me old fashioned, but i'll forego a pretty fireworks display to live another few years, thanks a lot! thumbs

hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088484


No one here is rejoicing in premature death.

Again, I'm discussing the naked eye viewing implications.


Similar to the study of the effects of nuclear weapons exploding. Doesn't imply any emotional preference towards fate beyond our control.
Do your absolute best and the rest is fate.
FTM

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02/27/2013 06:06 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Well so much for everybody running and hiding on Mars. Poetic Justice. LOL. We would just fuck up that planet too.

So I'm guessing if this thing hits mars with that kind of force it could what...Knock it off its orbit...Create lots of debris... What else.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35105254


Not a chance of knocking it off it's orbit. Mars is trillions of times more massive.
FTM

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02/27/2013 06:07 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Hmmmmm...If a hit takes place i would think from May through to August of 2015 would be the scary part for earth and debris hitting us....
 Quoting: catsscratchfever


No it wont, no debris.
Anonymous Coward
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02/27/2013 06:15 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
you sound certain

spock