Godlike Productions - Conspiracy Forum
Users Online Now: 2,047 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 577,644
Pageviews Today: 853,349Threads Today: 224Posts Today: 4,402
08:22 AM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1545225
United States
02/27/2013 07:49 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
So this just came top mind, thinking about something from history/folklore tales of "sky on fire". Would excessive amounts of dust and debris entering our atmosphere make it look like our sky is on fire from it burning up on entry? Sorry if its a dumb question, I tend to over-think EVERYTHING.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33849566


yes. consider a sandstorm-like cloud floating around in
space, and the Earth just happened to pass through it
as it intersected our orbit, and the relative speeds would
mean that each particle of sand was moving at 120,000 miles per hour
as it entered our atmosphere. in that case each sand particle
would "burn-up" as it entered the upper atmosphere (just for
a split-second) but all of the particles "catching fire"
like that for the duration of the sand-cloud would make the
entire sky look like it's on fire.
NervousAndJerky

User ID: 30856702
United States
02/28/2013 06:04 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

An update from a real astronomer...chance of impact is increasing. [link to astroblogger.blogspot.com.au]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837




Any update again?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643


that was just updated a few days ago. Still being over a year out, you probably shouldn't expect updates quite so quickly. The data will increase exponentially as the date in question approaches. Give it some time...
 Quoting: John Everytard


For my part I've been working on calculating the uncertainty region of the asteroid. FindOrb wasn't able to generate a file that ORSA could parse correctly until I started generating it with an epoch prior to the comet's eccentricity exceeding 1. That means I now have to integrate it forward in ORSA over a period of 3 years, which is a lot more processor intensive than if FindOrb was allowed to generate it at an epoch near the actual date of the Mars pass, but it's doing the integration right now. Both programs account for the gravity of all the planets, including Mars, so it doesn't much matter aside from the processor/time requirements. I'll check on it tomorrow morning and hopefully the first integration will have completed. Then I will do a second integration with a subset of the solutions that put it closest to mars with a much finer time resolution. Bottom line, I should be able to make a video of this preliminary analysis sometime in the next day or two if all goes well.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


I got a little nose bleed reading this, but I'lle be back to see the result.
Perspective is everything
AKA.
1.NervousNJerky
B.ThKpDrgnMeBk
and UndisclosedScource
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 17989851
United States
03/01/2013 04:50 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
we can only presume that, even as we speak, Russia and the U.S.
are frantically working behind the scenes to launch a space probe with the 50 megaton Tzar Bomba onboard, to intercept C/2013 A1,
and blast it out of the sky before it hits Mars.
 Quoting: Suzy Creamcheese


It hasn't even been determined that it will hit Mars.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1545225
United States
03/01/2013 07:13 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
we can only presume that, even as we speak, Russia and the U.S.
are frantically working behind the scenes to launch a space probe with the 50 megaton Tzar Bomba onboard, to intercept C/2013 A1,
and blast it out of the sky before it hits Mars.
 Quoting: Suzy Creamcheese


It hasn't even been determined that it will hit Mars.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17989851


the bottom line is that the Astronomers are not telling
us what they already know about when and how this comet
is going to crash into Mars.

all we are getting from all of the astronomical scientific
experts is: "we are still refining our calculations, and we'll get back with you".

the conspiracy of silence is deafening.
Wispa

User ID: 31784394
United Kingdom
03/01/2013 07:28 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
we can only presume that, even as we speak, Russia and the U.S.
are frantically working behind the scenes to launch a space probe with the 50 megaton Tzar Bomba onboard, to intercept C/2013 A1,
and blast it out of the sky before it hits Mars.
 Quoting: Suzy Creamcheese


It hasn't even been determined that it will hit Mars.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17989851


the bottom line is that the Astronomers are not telling
us what they already know about when and how this comet
is going to crash into Mars.

all we are getting from all of the astronomical scientific
experts is: "we are still refining our calculations, and we'll get back with you".

the conspiracy of silence is deafening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


The comet was discovered on Jan 3rd 2013. there isn't much to tell yet, give them time to track it !
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1545225
United States
03/01/2013 07:40 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
we can only presume that, even as we speak, Russia and the U.S.
are frantically working behind the scenes to launch a space probe with the 50 megaton Tzar Bomba onboard, to intercept C/2013 A1,
and blast it out of the sky before it hits Mars.
 Quoting: Suzy Creamcheese


It hasn't even been determined that it will hit Mars.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17989851


the bottom line is that the Astronomers are not telling
us what they already know about when and how this comet
is going to crash into Mars.

all we are getting from all of the astronomical scientific
experts is: "we are still refining our calculations, and we'll get back with you".

the conspiracy of silence is deafening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


The comet was discovered on Jan 3rd 2013. there isn't much to tell yet, give them time to track it !
 Quoting: Wispa


that is just the point! they have had plenty of time, since Jan 3, to make all of the necessary computations to determine precisely what this thing is going to do via a vis Mars.

and now! they've EVEN GOT YOU SAYING: "they are still
refining their calculations, and they will be done pretty soon."

sheeeesh!

THEY ALREADY HAVE THE FRICKING ANSWERS, AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35392107
United Kingdom
03/01/2013 07:42 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
[link to rt.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33736277
United States
03/01/2013 08:10 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
It will hit Mars...the aftermath of that will be large rocks heading toward Earth...Not to shabby on the doom scale
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34464973
United States
03/01/2013 08:13 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
It couldnt happen to a more deserving bunch of aliens.

Martians are the worst!

Thats karma bitches!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35393780
03/01/2013 08:14 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
we can only presume that, even as we speak, Russia and the U.S.
are frantically working behind the scenes to launch a space probe with the 50 megaton Tzar Bomba onboard, to intercept C/2013 A1,
and blast it out of the sky before it hits Mars.
 Quoting: Suzy Creamcheese


what, and lose the opportunity not only to study such an impact but to also take advantage of the many billions of tonnes of water this comet would bring to the planet. Once the dust settles that's a lot of rocket-fuel to exploit not to mention the added vantage of peering deep into mars crust.
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
Forum Moderator

User ID: 4211721
United States
03/01/2013 08:48 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


It hasn't even been determined that it will hit Mars.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17989851


the bottom line is that the Astronomers are not telling
us what they already know about when and how this comet
is going to crash into Mars.

all we are getting from all of the astronomical scientific
experts is: "we are still refining our calculations, and we'll get back with you".

the conspiracy of silence is deafening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


The comet was discovered on Jan 3rd 2013. there isn't much to tell yet, give them time to track it !
 Quoting: Wispa


that is just the point! they have had plenty of time, since Jan 3, to make all of the necessary computations to determine precisely what this thing is going to do via a vis Mars.

and now! they've EVEN GOT YOU SAYING: "they are still
refining their calculations, and they will be done pretty soon."

sheeeesh!

THEY ALREADY HAVE THE FRICKING ANSWERS, AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

That's not how orbital determination works. You need to measure it over time to establish a sufficient baseline to nail down the orbit to the required level of accuracy that far into the future.
astrobanner2
Wispa

User ID: 31784394
United Kingdom
03/01/2013 08:52 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


It hasn't even been determined that it will hit Mars.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17989851


the bottom line is that the Astronomers are not telling
us what they already know about when and how this comet
is going to crash into Mars.

all we are getting from all of the astronomical scientific
experts is: "we are still refining our calculations, and we'll get back with you".

the conspiracy of silence is deafening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


The comet was discovered on Jan 3rd 2013. there isn't much to tell yet, give them time to track it !
 Quoting: Wispa


that is just the point! they have had plenty of time, since Jan 3, to make all of the necessary computations to determine precisely what this thing is going to do via a vis Mars.

and now! they've EVEN GOT YOU SAYING: "they are still
refining their calculations, and they will be done pretty soon."

sheeeesh!

THEY ALREADY HAVE THE FRICKING ANSWERS, AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


I think you need to do a bit of research into NEO's, you will then see it is not a case of spotting it and instantly knowing where it will hit in time to come.
I got me saying that after researching.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1545225
United States
03/01/2013 08:56 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


the bottom line is that the Astronomers are not telling
us what they already know about when and how this comet
is going to crash into Mars.

all we are getting from all of the astronomical scientific
experts is: "we are still refining our calculations, and we'll get back with you".

the conspiracy of silence is deafening.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


The comet was discovered on Jan 3rd 2013. there isn't much to tell yet, give them time to track it !
 Quoting: Wispa


that is just the point! they have had plenty of time, since Jan 3, to make all of the necessary computations to determine precisely what this thing is going to do via a vis Mars.

and now! they've EVEN GOT YOU SAYING: "they are still
refining their calculations, and they will be done pretty soon."

sheeeesh!

THEY ALREADY HAVE THE FRICKING ANSWERS, AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

That's not how orbital determination works. You need to measure it over time to establish a sufficient baseline to nail down the orbit to the required level of accuracy that far into the future.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


i am saying that 2 months is more than enough time
to collect enough data points and extrapolated precisely
where and when this thing is going to crash into Mars,
split it open like a water melon, spreading the pieces all
over the place, and the loss of Mars will severely disrupt
the Earth's orbit, which will cause an ELE TEOTWAWKI catastrophe for everything on this planet.
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
Forum Moderator

User ID: 4211721
United States
03/01/2013 09:10 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


The comet was discovered on Jan 3rd 2013. there isn't much to tell yet, give them time to track it !
 Quoting: Wispa


that is just the point! they have had plenty of time, since Jan 3, to make all of the necessary computations to determine precisely what this thing is going to do via a vis Mars.

and now! they've EVEN GOT YOU SAYING: "they are still
refining their calculations, and they will be done pretty soon."

sheeeesh!

THEY ALREADY HAVE THE FRICKING ANSWERS, AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

That's not how orbital determination works. You need to measure it over time to establish a sufficient baseline to nail down the orbit to the required level of accuracy that far into the future.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


i am saying that 2 months is more than enough time
to collect enough data points and extrapolated precisely
where and when this thing is going to crash into Mars,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

And I'm saying, no, it's not.
astrobanner2
DVCMCM

User ID: 35402787
Italy
03/01/2013 09:40 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
joker
To live is to believe in the power of dreams.
To dream is to believe in the power of love.
To love is to believe in yourself.

Luca 21:28 "Ma quando queste cose cominceranno ad accadere, guardate in alto e alzate i vostri sguardi, perché la vostra liberazione è vicina".
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34941837
United States
03/01/2013 09:47 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

Where's your video Dr. Astro?
Anubis
§†€ªmþüñk

User ID: 35369805
03/01/2013 09:56 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
For my part I've been working on calculating the uncertainty region of the asteroid. FindOrb wasn't able to generate a file that ORSA could parse correctly until I started generating it with an epoch prior to the comet's eccentricity exceeding 1. That means I now have to integrate it forward in ORSA over a period of 3 years, which is a lot more processor intensive than if FindOrb was allowed to generate it at an epoch near the actual date of the Mars pass, but it's doing the integration right now. Both programs account for the gravity of all the planets, including Mars, so it doesn't much matter aside from the processor/time requirements. I'll check on it tomorrow morning and hopefully the first integration will have completed. Then I will do a second integration with a subset of the solutions that put it closest to mars with a much finer time resolution. Bottom line, I should be able to make a video of this preliminary analysis sometime in the next day or two if all goes well.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


that would be awesome Doc

staying tuned.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1545225
United States
03/01/2013 10:01 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


that is just the point! they have had plenty of time, since Jan 3, to make all of the necessary computations to determine precisely what this thing is going to do via a vis Mars.

and now! they've EVEN GOT YOU SAYING: "they are still
refining their calculations, and they will be done pretty soon."

sheeeesh!

THEY ALREADY HAVE THE FRICKING ANSWERS, AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

That's not how orbital determination works. You need to measure it over time to establish a sufficient baseline to nail down the orbit to the required level of accuracy that far into the future.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


i am saying that 2 months is more than enough time
to collect enough data points and extrapolated precisely
where and when this thing is going to crash into Mars,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

And I'm saying, no, it's not.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


well, i just looked in all of my physics books, and none of them say anything about "hope".

.
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
Forum Moderator

User ID: 4211721
United States
03/01/2013 10:03 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

Where's your video Dr. Astro?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


Working on it. The parsing issue was solved, but the file that could be parsed by ORSA was itself inaccurate; it had all the virtual comet positions plunge straight into the sun at the start of the simulation. Turns out that FindOrb loses accuracy in its oscillating elements at high eccentricities. Not an unworkable problem though because it also generates a separate file of the actual state vectors (I tested them and they're accurate even at high eccentricities). I'm now working on loading those into ORSA, though it has to be done manually. To give you some news about this comet in the meantime though:
[link to spaceobs.org]

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 03/01/2013 10:04 PM
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1545225
United States
03/01/2013 10:08 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump

Where's your video Dr. Astro?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837


well, while we're waiting for Dr. Astro's cartoon show,
here's a quasi-accurate thumbnail sketch of what will
happen in October 2014 (Mars and Comet)

[link to www.planetary.org]
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
Forum Moderator

User ID: 4211721
United States
03/01/2013 10:11 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...

That's not how orbital determination works. You need to measure it over time to establish a sufficient baseline to nail down the orbit to the required level of accuracy that far into the future.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


i am saying that 2 months is more than enough time
to collect enough data points and extrapolated precisely
where and when this thing is going to crash into Mars,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

And I'm saying, no, it's not.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


well, i just looked in all of my physics books, and none of them say anything about "hope".

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

WTF are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about "hope." First you post a picture from a 2-body simulation that explicitly states not to use it for planetary encounter circumstances or over years of time and you call it an "accurate" thumbnail sketch, now you state that 2 months is more than enough time to extrapolate precisely where and when a long period comet will hit a small planet such as mars a year and a half into the future.

Here's the astrometric data:
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
Now you tell me what the orbital elements or state vectors are precisely and let's see if you're right to within the diameter of mars when the actual close approach to mars happens. Sound like a deal?
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35155953
United States
03/01/2013 10:18 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


i am saying that 2 months is more than enough time
to collect enough data points and extrapolated precisely
where and when this thing is going to crash into Mars,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

And I'm saying, no, it's not.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


well, i just looked in all of my physics books, and none of them say anything about "hope".

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

WTF are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about "hope." First you post a picture from a 2-body simulation that explicitly states not to use it for planetary encounter circumstances or over years of time and you call it an "accurate" thumbnail sketch, now you state that 2 months is more than enough time to extrapolate precisely where and when a long period comet will hit a small planet such as mars a year and a half into the future.

Here's the astrometric data:
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
Now you tell me what the orbital elements or state vectors are precisely and let's see if you're right to within the diameter of mars when the actual close approach to mars happens. Sound like a deal?
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


NASA lied about your mom and the moon!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34941837
United States
03/01/2013 10:30 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...

And I'm saying, no, it's not.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


well, i just looked in all of my physics books, and none of them say anything about "hope".

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

WTF are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about "hope." First you post a picture from a 2-body simulation that explicitly states not to use it for planetary encounter circumstances or over years of time and you call it an "accurate" thumbnail sketch, now you state that 2 months is more than enough time to extrapolate precisely where and when a long period comet will hit a small planet such as mars a year and a half into the future.

Here's the astrometric data:
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
Now you tell me what the orbital elements or state vectors are precisely and let's see if you're right to within the diameter of mars when the actual close approach to mars happens. Sound like a deal?
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


NASA lied about your mom and the moon!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35155953


Dr. Astro,

I've been following this Yahoo message board which has started talking about C/2013 A1: [link to tech.groups.yahoo.com]
Looks like they have posted new astrometry to add to your dataset.

The person who replies is Robert D. Matson. You may have heard of him. Anyhow, his calculations reduce the nominal miss by 5000km from Elenin's most recent calculations - down to 32000km.

At this rate we will have a confirmed impact in a week 5a
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
Forum Moderator

User ID: 4211721
United States
03/01/2013 10:40 PM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


well, i just looked in all of my physics books, and none of them say anything about "hope".

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225

WTF are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about "hope." First you post a picture from a 2-body simulation that explicitly states not to use it for planetary encounter circumstances or over years of time and you call it an "accurate" thumbnail sketch, now you state that 2 months is more than enough time to extrapolate precisely where and when a long period comet will hit a small planet such as mars a year and a half into the future.

Here's the astrometric data:
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
Now you tell me what the orbital elements or state vectors are precisely and let's see if you're right to within the diameter of mars when the actual close approach to mars happens. Sound like a deal?
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


NASA lied about your mom and the moon!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35155953


Dr. Astro,

I've been following this Yahoo message board which has started talking about C/2013 A1: [link to tech.groups.yahoo.com]
Looks like they have posted new astrometry to add to your dataset.

The person who replies is Robert D. Matson. You may have heard of him. Anyhow, his calculations reduce the nominal miss by 5000km from Elenin's most recent calculations - down to 32000km.

At this rate we will have a confirmed impact in a week 5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34941837

Thanks, I will take those readings into account.
astrobanner2
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
Forum Moderator

User ID: 33360181
United States
03/02/2013 05:05 AM

Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
this is the Minor Planet Center (of the International Astronomical Union) web site.
and on this page they have posted highly technical data
about COMET C/2013 A1 Siding Spring:


[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
 Quoting: Suzy Creamcheese


picardpalm
Don't suppose you got that notion anywhere in particular did you?
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34941837
United States
03/02/2013 05:25 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
From this thread: [link to tech.groups.yahoo.com]


C/2013 A1 close approach to Mars in October 2014
Posted By:
l.elenin
Sat Mar 2, 2013 5:31 am


Hi Tom and group!

Thanks for the measurements! I will recalculate CA too.

Leonid


and



Re: C/2013 A1 close approach to Mars in October 2014
Posted By:
alvitagl
Sat Mar 2, 2013 9:19 am


Hi all,

Thank you for sharing the latest Kitt Peak observations.

I have runned the MonteCarlo generation of clones, including the latest
observations. After that, the estimated probability of a Mars impact increases,
and, moreover, the location of the possible impactors within the uncertainty
"cloud" of the virtual comets moves from the border towards the middle of the
cloud, in a region of higher density. What happens is that if the clones are
generated assuming a lower standard deviation on the individual observations,
e.g. . 0.5 arcsecs instead of 1.0 arcsecs, the cloud shrinks, but the virtual
impactors are still well inside it, and, since the density increases, the impact
probability estimate also increases.
The linked image shows a picture of the current prediction taken about half an
hour before the possible impact. The generation of clones was made assuming
equal weights on all observations (one discarded) and an esd of. 0.5 arcsecs.
The projection is on the Mars orbital plane, the white spot represents the
nominal solution and the magenta spots are the virtual impactors. In total, 2000
clones are represented. The resulting estimated impact probability is ca. 0.3%

[link to www.webalice.it]

Later I might post an histogram of the distribution of the closest approach
distances.

Best regards

Aldo Vitagliano
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34427786
United States
03/02/2013 05:35 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
related?



When the time comes My dearly beloved daughter for The Warning, a number of signs will be revealed.

I tell you this to remind all God’s children that they must prepare themselves beforehand.

The two stars will collide and many will be fearful.

There is nothing to fear because this is the greatest gift I bring so that not one soul is lost to the fires of Hell.

Then, My Cross, will appear in the skies and not one person will fail to notice.

Many will fall down in fear and a great shaking, like an earthquake, will be felt.

Then will come the silence.



- See more at: [link to www.thewarningsecondcoming.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34941837
United States
03/02/2013 05:39 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Dr. Astro,

So can a shockwave from an impact this size travel through the vacuum of space?
Sword of mercy

User ID: 9268234
United Kingdom
03/02/2013 05:52 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
related?



When the time comes My dearly beloved daughter for The Warning, a number of signs will be revealed.

I tell you this to remind all God’s children that they must prepare themselves beforehand.

The two stars will collide and many will be fearful.

There is nothing to fear because this is the greatest gift I bring so that not one soul is lost to the fires of Hell.

Then, My Cross, will appear in the skies and not one person will fail to notice.

Many will fall down in fear and a great shaking, like an earthquake, will be felt.

Then will come the silence.



- See more at: [link to www.thewarningsecondcoming.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34427786


Think someone is confused over the meaning of hell. When we die we remain in the grave, in a state of "sleep" where we will have absolutely no consciousness of anything, nor the passage of time, until Christ returns. This isn't a pop at you but evey time a comet,asteroid is spotted or an odd occurrence appears on soho people start bringing up "signs ".

Last Edited by Sword of mercy on 03/02/2013 05:54 AM
We will pass through the Seven Years or serve God's Will as martyrs.
phoomp

User ID: 34814167
Canada
03/02/2013 07:45 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
you sound certain

spock
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31664806

Think for a moment about how difficult it is for us to travel to Mars.

News