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# Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 29639471
United States
02/25/2013 12:19 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
astro will there be any affects on earth ?
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 12:19 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

Quoting: catsscratchfever

Good find, thanks. They're clearly using a different formula to calculate the size that goes based on nuclear magnitude rather than total mag. I like that. I find if I use the formula for a short period comet I get a size of about 36.5 km. Not really directly applicable to a long period comet like this though.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 12:20 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Blast from the past;
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24522527

Something in my response triggered the automatic eating of my post. No idea what it was, but please don't derail the thread about a completely different comet from 13 years ago, ok?
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Please. I can't even properly respond to you without triggering auto-eating of my post. Stop with the 76P nonsense.
Desert Fox

User ID: 8786935
United States
02/25/2013 12:21 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Interesting post Astro, thanks. 5 stars.
:TOMABANEFOX:
It's more humane this way ya know, or burn on totem pole. Choice is yours.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34327655
United Kingdom
02/25/2013 12:21 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I don't see why not. In our lifetimes we have observed TWO comets smacking into Jupiter, Mars is just a target as any other planet out there.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 12:21 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
astro will there be any affects on earth ?
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29639471

Impacts of this scale can eject martian meteorites such that they eventually reach earth, but it takes considerable time for that to happen since it's random and not directed.
RayGun

User ID: 30283706
United States
02/25/2013 12:22 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
How big is the comet.The link did not open for me.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33589735

When they measure comets it has to be in the customary units of measure. So how many football fields is it?
BoxerLvr

User ID: 906655
United States
02/25/2013 12:23 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

Quoting: catsscratchfever

Wow. I plugged those numbers into the Solar System Collision page ( [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] ) and came up with this:

Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT)
(Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)

QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)

Crater Diameter: 659.0 km
Crater Depth: 4.1 km

Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history.
It is precisely because it is fashionable for Americans to know no science, even though they may be well educated otherwise, that they so easily fall prey to nonsense. They thus become part of the armies of the night, the purveyors of nitwittery, the retailers of intellectual junk food, the feeders on mental cardboard, for their ignorance keeps them from distinguishing nectar from sewage. — Isaac Asimov
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
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02/25/2013 12:24 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

Quoting: catsscratchfever

Wow. I plugged those numbers into the Solar System Collision page ( [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] ) and came up with this:

Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT)
(Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)

QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)

Crater Diameter: 659.0 km
Crater Depth: 4.1 km

Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history.
Quoting: BoxerLvr

Staggering, isn't it?
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
United States
02/25/2013 12:32 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
How big is the comet.The link did not open for me.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33589735

When they measure comets it has to be in the customary units of measure. So how many football fields is it?
Quoting: RayGun

Well if I go with the formula for a short period comet (I know, bad astro), then the size is 39916.9 yards. Just shy of 400 football field lengths.
7.83Hz

User ID: 18210007
Australia
02/25/2013 12:33 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Maybe this will heat up Mars a little... One step closer to being habitable lol
Anything in life worth doing is worth overdoing. Moderation's for cowards.
RayGun

User ID: 30283706
United States
02/25/2013 12:35 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
How big is the comet.The link did not open for me.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33589735

When they measure comets it has to be in the customary units of measure. So how many football fields is it?
Quoting: RayGun

Well if I go with the formula for a short period comet (I know, bad astro), then the size is 39916.9 yards. Just shy of 400 football field lengths.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Wow, That's huge. Marvin better tuck and cover.
BoxerLvr

User ID: 906655
United States
02/25/2013 12:35 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

Quoting: catsscratchfever

Wow. I plugged those numbers into the Solar System Collision page ( [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] ) and came up with this:

Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT)
(Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)

QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)

Crater Diameter: 659.0 km
Crater Depth: 4.1 km

Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history.
Quoting: BoxerLvr

Staggering, isn't it?
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Poor Martians.

And this was just discovered last month and it might hit next year? Only 1 year warning. Just think if it was heading our way, there is nothing we could do about it. That's big enough to wipe out all life on Earth huh?
It is precisely because it is fashionable for Americans to know no science, even though they may be well educated otherwise, that they so easily fall prey to nonsense. They thus become part of the armies of the night, the purveyors of nitwittery, the retailers of intellectual junk food, the feeders on mental cardboard, for their ignorance keeps them from distinguishing nectar from sewage. — Isaac Asimov
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35105254
02/25/2013 12:36 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Interesting how the attention is directed far into the future, meanwhile you should be looking right in front of you. Very clever
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18713240

LIKE MARCH 2013.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
United States
02/25/2013 12:40 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

Quoting: catsscratchfever

Wow. I plugged those numbers into the Solar System Collision page ( [link to janus.astro.umd.edu] ) and came up with this:

Energy Released: 19 billion MT (MegaTons of TNT)
(Energy needed to Boil Earth's Oceans: 2000 billion MT)

QUAKE!! Magnitude 12.5 (largest recorded Earthquake: 9.5)

Crater Diameter: 659.0 km
Crater Depth: 4.1 km

Collisions this energetic occurred only early in the Solar System's history.
Quoting: BoxerLvr

Staggering, isn't it?
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Poor Martians.

And this was just discovered last month and it might hit next year? Only 1 year warning. Just think if it was heading our way, there is nothing we could do about it. That's big enough to wipe out all life on Earth huh?
Quoting: BoxerLvr

It would put the rock that took out the dinosaurs to shame. And yeah, with only 1 year warning we'd be helpless to do anything about it. That's how it goes with long period comets. They never give much more warning than that, and if they happen to be headed your way... you're screwed at our level of tech.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
United States
02/25/2013 12:41 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Interesting how the attention is directed far into the future, meanwhile you should be looking right in front of you. Very clever
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18713240

LIKE MARCH 2013.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35105254

Funny. If I were anyone else posting this, you'd be all over it.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35120877
United States
02/25/2013 12:51 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very cool! This may be a stupid question, but is there any way we would be able to witness this from Earth? Through a telescope perhaps?

Quoting: Petyermouse

Yes, according to Ian's post it should be visible from earth (at least Mars will be, again, no idea where on mars it will hit yet but I will work on that), but I haven't yet determined where exactly you'll have to be to see it.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

After that collision, Mars will have an improved atmosphere, it will slowly incrase in density. And you all my see some water.
The Dudester

User ID: 23521683
United States
02/25/2013 12:52 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very interesting news that's for sure. Will be interesting to see if we can get a front row seat of potential collision when the time comes.

At the same time, it should serve as a wake up call to all governments on earth that one day in the not so distant future be on the recieving end of such a collision. Something needs to be done NOW !!!!!
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
United States
02/25/2013 12:53 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very interesting news that's for sure. Will be interesting to see if we can get a front row seat of potential collision when the time comes.

At the same time, it should serve as a wake up call to all governments on earth that one day in the not so distant future be on the recieving end of such a collision. Something needs to be done NOW !!!!!
Quoting: The Dudester

Agreed. If this doesn't wake people up, nothing will.
0p3n1tUp

User ID: 1252172
Netherlands
02/25/2013 12:55 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm gonna raise the

for sarcasm's sake.
0p3n1tUp
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2230505
United States
02/25/2013 12:57 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
3 (or 4 counting enke) awesome comets this year, and a possible comet collision with mars of epic explosiveness next year?

:popcorn1:

looks like the date is 2014-Oct-19 21:00
catsscratchfever

User ID: 33747838
02/25/2013 12:58 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

Quoting: catsscratchfever

Good find, thanks. They're clearly using a different formula to calculate the size that goes based on nuclear magnitude rather than total mag. I like that. I find if I use the formula for a short period comet I get a size of about 36.5 km. Not really directly applicable to a long period comet like this though.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Yea no prob Dr Astro.... Question....I know this is a ridiculous question at this point...But...Do you think that most of the eject a would break escape velocity of mars gravity????....Not saying it will hit Mars just speculating...
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
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02/25/2013 01:00 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter of over 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatonnes! This kind of event can leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep. Such an event would overshadow even the famous bombardment of Jupiter by the disintegrated comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 in July 1994, which by some estimates was originally 15 m in diameter.

Quoting: catsscratchfever

Good find, thanks. They're clearly using a different formula to calculate the size that goes based on nuclear magnitude rather than total mag. I like that. I find if I use the formula for a short period comet I get a size of about 36.5 km. Not really directly applicable to a long period comet like this though.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Yea no prob Dr Astro.... Question....I know this is a ridiculous question at this point...But...Do you think that most of the eject a would break escape velocity of mars gravity????....Not saying it will hit Mars just speculating...
Quoting: catsscratchfever

I don't know about most, some would. Would have to look into it deeper to find the proportion though.
RI McGillicutty

User ID: 32853457
United States
02/25/2013 01:02 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
finally, an astro thread that doesn't seem to be 100% disinfo

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35032505

And by "disinfo", you mean not pandering to everyone who predicts, or swears everything is certain doom all the time?

Last Edited by Naptown Neanderthal on 02/25/2013 01:05 AM
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19606031
Australia
02/25/2013 01:11 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If this comet were to hit Phobos what sort of displacement could you expect? Would it knock the moon out of its geostationary orbit?
BoxerLvr

User ID: 906655
United States
02/25/2013 01:12 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very interesting news that's for sure. Will be interesting to see if we can get a front row seat of potential collision when the time comes.

At the same time, it should serve as a wake up call to all governments on earth that one day in the not so distant future be on the recieving end of such a collision. Something needs to be done NOW !!!!!
Quoting: The Dudester

Agreed. If this doesn't wake people up, nothing will.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Nothing will. They will talk about it on TV for a couple of days and then it will be right back to celebrity gossip. We need to be building and testing out solutions NOW. We can't wait until one is heading our way. It will be too late by then. The shit has to be built, tested, and ready to go. *sigh* we're screwed.
It is precisely because it is fashionable for Americans to know no science, even though they may be well educated otherwise, that they so easily fall prey to nonsense. They thus become part of the armies of the night, the purveyors of nitwittery, the retailers of intellectual junk food, the feeders on mental cardboard, for their ignorance keeps them from distinguishing nectar from sewage. — Isaac Asimov
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
United States
02/25/2013 01:13 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Very interesting news that's for sure. Will be interesting to see if we can get a front row seat of potential collision when the time comes.

At the same time, it should serve as a wake up call to all governments on earth that one day in the not so distant future be on the recieving end of such a collision. Something needs to be done NOW !!!!!
Quoting: The Dudester

I agree 100%. There is always a danger from space which is infinity. One of these times in the next billions of years, earth will be on the unlucky receiving end.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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02/25/2013 01:14 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If this comet were to hit Phobos what sort of displacement could you expect? Would it knock the moon out of its geostationary orbit?
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19606031

I suspect it would destroy phobos. What happens to its remains would depend on the kinetics of the impact.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 30665644
United States
02/25/2013 01:16 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Theoretically, could it blow out large pieces of the Martian landscape? Perhaps creating a small asteroid field wandering through our solar system?
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/25/2013 01:17 AM
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